Related papers: A General Approach to Modeling Covid-19
In the present paper, we model the cumulative number of persons reported to be infected by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, in a country or a region, by a sum of logistic functions. For a given logistic function, using Eulerian numbers, we find the…
Despite the availability of effective vaccines, the persistence of SARS-CoV-2 suggests that co-circulation with other pathogens and resulting multi-epidemics may become increasingly frequent. To better forecast and control the risk of such…
The global SARS-CoV-2 pandemic suggests a novel type of disease spread dynamics. WHO states that there is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are immune from a second infection [WHO].…
The rapid worldwide spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) demonstrated the potential threat an infectious disease poses in a closely interconnected and interdependent world. Here we introduce a probabilistic model which…
SARS-CoV-2 is a new human coronavirus (CoV), which emerged in China in late 2019 and is responsible for the global COVID-19 pandemic that caused more than 59 million infections and 1.4 million deaths in 11 months. Understanding the origin…
We introduce an epidemic spreading model on a network using concepts from percolation theory. The model is motivated by discussing the standard SIR model, with extensions to describe effects of lockdowns within a population. The underlying…
We present in this work some results from analysing the spread of Covid-19 in different countries and regions around the world and the potential relations with climate, geographical location, and GDP. While the situation remains dynamic, we…
The COVID-19 pandemic has given rise to numerous articles from different scientific fields (epidemiology, virology, immunology, airflow physics...) without any effort to link these different insights. In this review, we aim to establish…
Since the first reports of a coronavirus (CoV) disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome virus (SARS-CoV-2) in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, scientists are working around the clock to find sound answers to the…
The dynamics of epidemics depend on how people's behavior changes during an outbreak. At the beginning of the epidemic, people do not know about the virus, then, after the outbreak of epidemics and alarm, they begin to comply with the…
This paper is devoted to the multidisciplinary modelling of a pandemic initiated by an aggressive virus, specifically the so-called \textit{SARS--CoV--2 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, corona virus n.2}. The study is developed within a…
In the present article a mathematical model is proposed to research the current coronavirus outbreak (SARS-CoV-2) in Paraguay, describing the multiple transmission paths in the infection dynamics, following the susceptible, exposed,…
Transmission models for infectious diseases are typically formulated in terms of dynamics between individuals or groups with processes such as disease progression or recovery for each individual captured phenomenologically, without…
The aim of the paper is to describe a model of the development of the Covid-19 contamination of the population of a country or a region. For this purpose a special branching process with two types of individuals is considered. This model is…
This tutorial shows how to build, fit, and criticize disease transmission models in Stan, and should be useful to researchers interested in modeling the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and other infectious diseases in a Bayesian framework. Bayesian…
The growing literature on the propagation of COVID-19 relies on various dynamic SIR-type models (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) which yield model-dependent results. For transparency and ease of comparing the results, we introduce a common…
A significant proportion of the infections driving the current {SARS-CoV-2} pandemic are transmitted asymptomatically. Here we introduce and study a simple epidemic model with separate compartments comprising asymptomatic and symptomatic…
This technical report describes a dynamic causal model of the spread of coronavirus through a population. The model is based upon ensemble or population dynamics that generate outcomes, like new cases and deaths over time. The purpose of…
The aim of the paper is to describe two models of Covid-19 infection dynamics. For this purpose a special class of branching processes with two types of individuals is considered. These models are intended to use only the observed daily…
This paper proposes a hypothetical model for the dual role of respiratory aerosols and inflammatory exudates in the dynamics and progression of SARS-CoV-2 lung infection. Starting from a new paradigm in infectious disease transmission, we…