Related papers: The contact process with an asymptomatic state
Empirical studies show that preference for prevention versus treatment remains a subject of debate. We build a paradigm model combining a utility game for the individual-level dilemma of prevention versus treatment, and a compartmental…
The vast majority of models for the spread of communicable diseases are parametric in nature and involve underlying assumptions about how the disease spreads through a population. In this article we consider the use of Bayesian…
The contact process is a simple model for the spread of an infection in a structured population. We investigate the case when the underlying structure evolves dynamically as a degree-dependent dynamical percolation model. Starting with a…
Infectious diseases are studied to understand their spreading mechanisms, to evaluate control strategies and to predict the risk and course of future outbreaks. Because people only interact with a small number of individuals, and because…
This paper is focused on SIS (Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible) epidemic dynamics (also known as the contact process) on populations modelled by homogeneous Poisson point processes of the Euclidean plane, where the infection rate of a…
We study a stochastic epidemic model consisting of elements (organisms in a community or cells in tissue) with fixed positions, in which damage or disease is transmitted by diffusing agents ("signals") emitted by infected individuals. The…
In general, the rates of infection and removal (whether through recovery or death) are nonlinear functions of the number of infected and susceptible individuals. One of the simplest models for the spread of infectious diseases is the SIR…
Individuals change their behavior during an epidemic in response to whether they and/or those they interact with are healthy or sick. Healthy individuals are concerned about contracting a disease from their sick contacts and may utilize…
The stacked contact process is a stochastic model for the spread of an infection within a population of hosts located on the $d$-dimensional integer lattice. Regardless of whether they are healthy or infected, hosts give birth and die at…
can evolve simultaneously. For the information-driven adaptive process, susceptible (infected) individuals who have abilities to recognize the disease would break the links of their infected (susceptible) neighbors to prevent the epidemic…
Epidemiological data on seasonal influenza show that the growth rate of the number of infected individuals can increase passing from one exponential growth rate to another one with a larger exponent. Such behavior is not described by…
In observational studies with time-to-event outcomes, the g-formula can be used to estimate a treatment effect in the presence of confounding factors. However, the asymptotic distribution of the corresponding stochastic process is…
Contacts between individuals play an important role in determining how infectious diseases spread. Various methods to gather data on such contacts co-exist, from surveys to wearable sensors. Comparisons of data obtained by different methods…
We analyze four models of epidemic spreading using a stochastic approach in which the primary stochastic variables are the numbers of individuals in each class. The stochastic approach is described by a master equation and the transition…
Epidemics are emergent phenomena depending on the epidemiological characteristics of pathogens and the interaction and movement of people. Public transit systems have provided much important information about the movement of people, but…
We show existence of a non-trivial phase transition for the contact process, a simple model for infection without immunity, on a network which reacts dynamically to the infection trying to prevent an epidemic. This network initially has the…
We study the extinction of epidemics in a simplicial susceptible-infected-susceptible model, where each susceptible individual becomes infected either by two-body interactions ($S+I \to 2I$) with a rate $\beta$ or by three-body interactions…
We study the classic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for the spread of an infectious disease. In this stochastic process, there are two competing mechanism: infection and recovery. Susceptible individuals may contract the disease…
We study the diffusion of epidemics on networks that are partitioned into local communities. The gross structure of hierarchical networks of this kind can be described by a quotient graph. The rationale of this approach is that individuals…
Testing individuals for pathogens can affect the spread of epidemics. Understanding how individual-level processes of sampling and reporting test results can affect community- or population-level spread is a dynamical modeling question. The…