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A major impact of globalization has been the information flow across the financial markets rendering them vulnerable to financial contagion. Research has focused on network analysis techniques to understand the extent and nature of such…
The aim of the present study is to detect abrupt trend changes in the mean of a multidimensional sequential signal. Directly inspired by papers of Fernhead and Liu ([4] and [5]), this work describes the signal in a hierarchical manner : the…
Historically, the economic recession often came abruptly and disastrously. For instance, during the 2008 financial crisis, the SP 500 fell 46 percent from October 2007 to March 2009. If we could detect the signals of the crisis earlier, we…
We propose a unified multi-tasking framework to represent the complex and uncertain causal process of financial market dynamics, and then to predict the movement of any type of index with an application on the monthly direction of the…
Reliable estimates of volatility and correlation are fundamental in economics and finance for understanding the impact of macroeconomics events on the market and guiding future investments and policies. Dependence across financial returns…
The design of reliable indicators to anticipate critical transitions in complex systems is an im portant task in order to detect a coming sudden regime shift and to take action in order to either prevent it or mitigate its consequences. We…
For a long investment time horizon, it is preferable to rebalance the portfolio weights at intermediate times. This necessitates a multi-period market model in which portfolio optimization is usually done through dynamic programming.…
Change points in real-world systems mark significant regime shifts in system dynamics, possibly triggered by exogenous or endogenous factors. These points define regimes for the time evolution of the system and are crucial for understanding…
This paper investigates the dynamics of in the S&P500 index from daily returns for the last 30 years. Using a stochastic geometry technique, each S&P500 yearly batch of data is embedded in a subspace that can be accurately described by a…
Macroeconomic variables are known to significantly impact equity markets, but their predictive power for price fluctuations has been underexplored due to challenges such as infrequency and variability in timing of announcements, changing…
Interactions among people or objects are often dynamic in nature and can be represented as a sequence of networks, each providing a snapshot of the interactions over a brief period of time. An important task in analyzing such evolving…
Very long and noisy sequence data arise from biological sciences to social science including high throughput data in genomics and stock prices in econometrics. Often such data are collected in order to identify and understand shifts in…
In modern business modeling and analytics, data monitoring plays a critical role. Nowadays, sophisticated models often rely on hundreds or even thousands of input variables. Over time, structural changes such as abrupt level shifts or trend…
Abrupt shifts in ecosystems, brains, markets, and climate are often diagnosed as signs of approaching a tipping point, i.e. a critical bifurcation where stability is lost. Here we reveal a broader and more deceptive mechanism:…
A financial system contains many elements networked by their relationships. Extensive works show that topological structure of the network stores rich information on evolutionary behaviors of the system such as early warning signals of…
This work delves into presenting a probabilistic method for analyzing linear process data with weakly dependent innovations, focusing on detecting change-points in the mean and estimating its spectral density. We develop a test for…
Standard methods and theories in finance can be ill-equipped to capture highly non-linear interactions in financial prediction problems based on large-scale datasets, with deep learning offering a way to gain insights into correlations in…
The study of the critical dynamics in complex systems is always interesting yet challenging. Here, we choose financial market as an example of a complex system, and do a comparative analyses of two stock markets - the S&P 500 (USA) and…
In the aftermath of the financial crisis, the growing literature on financial networks has widely documented the predictive power of topological characteristics (e.g. degree centrality measures) to explain the systemic impact or systemic…
The analysis of market correlations is crucial for optimal portfolio selection of correlated assets, but their memory effects have often been neglected. In this work, we analyse the mean market correlation of the S&P500 which corresponds to…