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We consider the problem of defining and fitting models of autoregressive time series of probability distributions on a compact interval of $\mathbb{R}$. An order-$1$ autoregressive model in this context is to be understood as a Markov…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-17 Laya Ghodrati , Victor M. Panaretos

We compare different selection criteria to choose the number of latent states of a multivariate latent Markov model for longitudinal data. This model is based on an underlying Markov chain to represent the evolution of a latent…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-12-04 Silvia Bacci , Silvia Pandolfi , Fulvia Pennoni

Interpretation of electrocardiography (ECG) signals is required for diagnosing cardiac arrhythmia. Recently, machine learning techniques have been applied for automated computer-aided diagnosis. Machine learning tasks can be divided into…

Analysing electrocardiograms (ECGs) is an inexpensive and non-invasive, yet powerful way to diagnose heart disease. ECG studies using Machine Learning to automatically detect abnormal heartbeats so far depend on large, manually annotated…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-01-11 Mononito Goswami , Benedikt Boecking , Artur Dubrawski

We present a new algorithm for the statistical model checking of Markov chains with respect to unbounded temporal properties, such as reachability and full linear temporal logic. The main idea is that we monitor each simulation run on the…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2016-03-04 Przemysław Daca , Thomas A. Henzinger , Jan Křetínský , Tatjana Petrov

Databases of electronic health records (EHRs) are increasingly used to inform clinical decisions. Machine learning methods can find patterns in EHRs that are predictive of future adverse outcomes. However, statistical models may be built…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-04 Andrew C. Miller , Ziad Obermeyer , Sendhil Mullainathan

With the development of deep learning-based methods, automated classification of electrocardiograms (ECGs) has recently gained much attention. Although the effectiveness of deep neural networks has been encouraging, the lack of information…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-03-02 Wenrui Zhang , Xinxin Di , Guodong Wei , Shijia Geng , Zhaoji Fu , Shenda Hong

Parametric Markov chains (pMC) are used to model probabilistic systems with unknown or partially known probabilities. Although (universal) pMC verification for reachability properties is known to be coETR-complete, there have been efforts…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2025-04-29 Kasper Engelen , Guillermo A. Pérez , Shrisha Rao

We present dynamic measurements of a lattice gas during phase separation, which we use as an analogy for self-assembly of equilibrium ordered structures. We use two approaches to quantify the degree of 'reversibility' of this process:…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2013-05-30 James Grant , Robert L. Jack

The article focuses on determining the predictive uncertainty of a model on the example of atrial fibrillation detection problem by a single-lead ECG signal. To this end, the model predicts parameters of the beta distribution over class…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2018-08-08 Alexander Kuvaev , Roman Khudorozhkov

This paper studies some temporal dependence properties and addresses the issue of parametric estimation for a class of state-dependent autoregressive models for nonlinear time series in which we assume a stochastic autoregressive…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-11 Fabio Gobbi , Sabrina Mulinacci

We introduce a reversible Markovian coagulation-fragmentation process on the set of partitions of $\{1,\ldots,L\}$ into disjoint intervals. Each interval can either split or merge with one of its two neighbors. The invariant measure can be…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-11-27 Cedric Bernardin , Fabio Lucio Toninelli

The Markov property is widely imposed in analysis of time series data. Correspondingly, testing the Markov property, and relatedly, inferring the order of a Markov model, are of paramount importance. In this article, we propose a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-31 Yunzhe Zhou , Chengchun Shi , Lexin Li , Qiwei Yao

In this paper we show that different physiological states and pathological conditions may be characterized in terms of predictability of time series signals from the underlying biological system. In particular we consider systolic arterial…

Medical Physics · Physics 2009-11-10 N. Ancona , R. Maestri , D. Marinazzo , L. Nitti , M. Pellicoro , G. D. Pinna , S. Stramaglia

We propose a multivariate GARCH model for non-stationary health time series by modifying the variance of the observations of the standard state space model. The proposed model provides an intuitive way of dealing with heteroskedastic data…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-16 Zayd Omar , David A. Stephens , Alexandra M. Schmidt , David L. Buckeridge

Hypertension is a major risk factor for stroke, cardiovascular disease, and end-stage renal disease, and its prevalence is expected to rise dramatically. Effective hypertension management is thus critical. A particular priority is…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2019-07-02 Ramin Mohammadi , Sarthak Jain , Stephen Agboola , Ramya Palacholla , Sagar Kamarthi , Byron C. Wallace

In this article, we analyze three classes of time-reversal of a Markov process with Gaussian noise on a manifold. We first unveil a commutativity constraint for the most general of these time-reversals to be well defined. Then we give a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-08-09 Jérémy O'Byrne , Michael E. Cates

Time series classification is crucial for numerous scientific and engineering applications. In this article, we present a numerically efficient, practically competitive, and theoretically rigorous classification method for distinguishing…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-11 Chen Qian , Xiucai Ding , Lexin Li

Causal reversibility blends reversibility and causality for concurrent systems. It indicates that an action can be undone provided that all of its consequences have been undone already, thus making it possible to bring the system back to a…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2024-02-14 Marco Bernardo , Claudio A. Mezzina

We introduce an approach which allows detecting causal relationships between variables for which the time evolution is available. Causality is assessed by a variational scheme based on the Information Imbalance of distance ranks, a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-07 Vittorio Del Tatto , Gianfranco Fortunato , Domenica Bueti , Alessandro Laio
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