Related papers: Stochastic Flight Plan Optimization
We study risk-aware linear policy approximations for the optimal operation of an energy system with stochastic wind power, storage, and limited fuel. The resulting problem is a sequential decision-making problem with rolling forecasts. In…
Capturing the uncertainty in probabilistic wind power forecasts is challenging, especially when uncertain input variables, such as the weather, play a role. Since ensemble weather predictions aim to capture the uncertainty in the weather…
A deterministic multiscale toy model is studied in which a chaotic fast subsystem triggers rare transitions between slow regimes, akin to weather or climate regimes. Using homogenization techniques, a reduced stochastic parametrization…
Ensemble forecasting is a technique devised to palliate sensitivity to initial conditions in nonlinear dynamical systems. The basic idea to avoid this sensitivity is to run the model many times under several slightly-different initial…
The problem of maximizing the probability of two trucks being coordinated to merge into a platoon on a highway is considered. Truck platooning is a promising technology that allows heavy vehicles to save fuel by driving with small…
Energy infrastructure planning under uncertainty has become increasingly complex as electrification, interdependence between energy carriers, decarbonization, and extreme weather events reshape long-term investment decisions. This paper…
Probability forecasting is common in the geosciences, the finance sector, and elsewhere. It is sometimes the case that one has multiple probability-forecasts for the same target. How is the information in these multiple forecast systems…
Decision makers often need to rely on imperfect probabilistic forecasts. While average performance metrics are typically available, it is difficult to assess the quality of individual forecasts and the corresponding utilities. To convey…
Air traffic operations are strongly influenced by convective weather, and one common response is pathfinder operations, in which a designated aircraft tests the viability of weather-impacted airspace and routes. Despite relatively routine…
Rolling forecasts have been almost overlooked in the renewable energy storage literature. In this paper, we provide a new approach for handling uncertainty not just in the accuracy of a forecast, but in the evolution of forecasts over time.…
Production planning must account for uncertainty in a production system, arising from fluctuating demand forecasts. Therefore, this article focuses on the integration of updated customer demand into the rolling horizon planning cycle. We…
Ensemble forecasting is, so far, the most successful approach to produce relevant forecasts with an estimation of their uncertainty. The main limitations of ensemble forecasting are the high computational cost and the difficulty to capture…
Past research on pedestrian trajectory forecasting mainly focused on deterministic predictions which provide only point estimates of future states. These future estimates can help an autonomous vehicle plan its trajectory and avoid…
Electric Take-Off and Landing (eVTOL) aircraft is considered as the major aircraft type in the emerging urban air mobility. Accurate power consumption estimation is crucial to eVTOL, supporting advanced power management strategies and…
We introduce a stochastic version of the cutting-plane method for a large class of data-driven Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Optimization (MINLO) problems. We show that under very weak assumptions the stochastic algorithm is able to converge to…
Seasonal climate variations affect electricity demand, which in turn affects month-to-month electricity planning and operations. Electricity system planning at the monthly timescale can be improved by adapting climate forecasts to estimate…
Quantifying uncertainty in weather forecasts is critical, especially for predicting extreme weather events. This is typically accomplished with ensemble prediction systems, which consist of many perturbed numerical weather simulations, or…
This study presents a real-time guidance strategy for an unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) that can be used to enhance their flight endurance by utilizing {\sl insitu} measurements of wind speeds and wind gradients. In these strategies,…
Transportation planning depends on predictions of the travel times between loading and unloading locations. While accurate techniques exist for making deterministic predictions of travel times based on real-world data, making stochastic…
In this paper, we consider energy efficient multiuser scheduling. Packet loss tolerance of the applications is exploited to minimize average system energy. There is a constraint on average packet drop rate and maximum number of packets…