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Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have not been broadly adopted in Bayesian neural networks (BNNs). This paper initially reviews the main challenges in sampling from the parameter posterior of a neural network via MCMC. Such…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-05 Theodore Papamarkou , Jacob Hinkle , M. Todd Young , David Womble

Causal inference from observational data is crucial for many disciplines such as medicine and economics. However, sharp bounds for causal effects under relaxations of the unconfoundedness assumption (causal sensitivity analysis) are subject…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-17 Dennis Frauen , Valentyn Melnychuk , Stefan Feuerriegel

Computing the probability of evidence even with known error bounds is NP-hard. In this paper we address this hard problem by settling on an easier problem. We propose an approximation which provides high confidence lower bounds on…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-06-26 Vibhav Gogate , Bozhena Bidyuk , Rina Dechter

The machine learning (ML) techniques to predict unitarity (UNI) and bounded from below (BFB) constraints in multi-scalar models is employed. The effectiveness of this approach is demonstrated by applying it to the two and three Higgs…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2024-01-18 Darius Jurčiukonis

The rampant adoption of ML methodologies has revealed that models are usually adopted to make decisions without taking into account the uncertainties in their predictions. More critically, they can be vulnerable to adversarial examples.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-09-29 Víctor Gallego

This paper introduces a Bayesian framework that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, dimensionality reduction, and neural density estimation to efficiently handle inverse problems that (i) must be solved multiple times, and…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Giacomo Bottacini , Matteo Torzoni , Andrea Manzoni

Undirected graphical models known as Markov networks are popular for a wide variety of applications ranging from statistical physics to computational biology. Traditionally, learning of the network structure has been done under the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-26 Johan Pensar , Henrik Nyman , Juha Niiranen , Jukka Corander

Unobserved confounding is a fundamental obstacle to establishing valid causal conclusions from observational data. Two complementary types of approaches have been developed to address this obstacle: obtaining identification using fortuitous…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-27 Ilya Shpitser , Zach Wood-Doughty , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

We study the problem of learning the Markov order in categorical sequences that represent paths in a network, i.e. sequences of variable lengths where transitions between states are constrained to a known graph. Such data pose challenges…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-07 Luka V. Petrović , Ingo Scholtes

Given data sampled from a number of variables, one is often interested in the underlying causal relationships in the form of a directed acyclic graph. In the general case, without interventions on some of the variables it is only possible…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-12-05 Christopher Nowzohour , Peter Bühlmann

The problem of learning Markov equivalence classes of Bayesian network structures may be solved by searching for the maximum of a scoring metric in a space of these classes. This paper deals with the definition and analysis of one such…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-07 Vincent Auvray , Louis Wehenkel

In this paper, we aim to develop a unified view of causal and non-causal feature selection methods. The unified view will fill in the gap in the research of the relation between the two types of methods. Based on the Bayesian network…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-12-18 Kui Yu , Lin Liu , Jiuyong Li

A graphical model is a statistical model that is associated to a graph whose nodes correspond to variables of interest. The edges of the graph reflect allowed conditional dependencies among the variables. Graphical models admit…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-06-09 Mathias Drton , Marloes H. Maathuis

We identify a new "order parameter" for the disorder driven many-body localization (MBL) transition by leveraging artificial intelligence. This allows us to pin down the transition, as the point at which the physics changes qualitatively,…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2019-11-19 Patrick Huembeli , Alexandre Dauphin , Peter Wittek , Christian Gogolin

Despite achieving remarkable performance on many image classification tasks, state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) classifiers remain vulnerable to small input perturbations. Especially, the existence of adversarial examples raises…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-06 David Mickisch , Felix Assion , Florens Greßner , Wiebke Günther , Mariele Motta

It is common practice to collect observations of feature and response pairs from different environments. A natural question is how to identify features that have consistent prediction power across environments. The invariant causal…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2022-07-01 Austin Goddard , Yu Xiang , Ilya Soloveychik

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have become a cornerstone of many modern scientific analyses by providing a straightforward approach to numerically estimate uncertainties in the parameters of a model using a sequence of random…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2020-03-10 Joshua S. Speagle

We present a new algorithm for the statistical model checking of Markov chains with respect to unbounded temporal properties, such as reachability and full linear temporal logic. The main idea is that we monitor each simulation run on the…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2016-03-04 Przemysław Daca , Thomas A. Henzinger , Jan Křetínský , Tatjana Petrov

The algorithmic Markov condition states that the most likely causal direction between two random variables X and Y can be identified as that direction with the lowest Kolmogorov complexity. Due to the halting problem, however, this notion…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-02-23 Kailash Budhathoki , Jilles Vreeken

We provide a comprehensive overview of latent Markov (LM) models for the analysis of longitudinal categorical data. The main assumption behind these models is that the response variables are conditionally independent given a latent process…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-03-16 F. Bartolucci , A. Farcomeni , F. Pennoni