Related papers: Interest rate convexity in a Gaussian framework
We consider so-called regular invertible Gaussian Volterra processes and derive a formula for their prediction laws. Examples of such processes include the fractional Brownian motions and the mixed fractional Brownian motions. As an…
Pricing extremely long-dated liabilities market consistently deals with the decline in liquidity of financial instruments on long maturities. The aim is to quantify the uncertainty of rates up to maturities of a century. We assume that the…
We construct models with the Gauss-Bonnet term multiplied to a function of the scalar field leading to inflationary scenario. The consideration is related with the slow-roll approximation. The cosmological attractor approach gives the…
The paper introduces a non-linear version of the process convolution formalism for building covariance functions for multi-output Gaussian processes. The non-linearity is introduced via Volterra series, one series per each output. We…
We investigate the probabilistic and analytic properties of Volterra processes constructed as pathwise integrals of deterministic kernels with respect to the H\"older continuous trajectories of Hilbert-valued Gaussian processes. To this…
We consider a Gaussian process formulation of the multiple kernel learning problem. The goal is to select the convex combination of kernel matrices that best explains the data and by doing so improve the generalisation on unseen data.…
We present compelling empirical evidence for a new interpretation of the Forward Rate Curve (FRC) term structure. We find that the average FRC follows a square-root law, with a prefactor related to the spot volatility, suggesting a…
A new modelling approach that directly prescribes dynamics to the term structure of VIX futures is proposed in this paper. The approach is motivated by the tractability enjoyed by models that directly prescribe dynamics to the VIX,…
Studying Binomial and Gaussian return dynamics in discrete time, we show how excess volatility can be traded to create growth. We test our results on real world data to confirm the observed model phenomena while also highlighting implicit…
The recent financial crisis has led to so-called multi-curve models for the term structure. Here we study a multi-curve extension of short rate models where, in addition to the short rate itself, we introduce short rate spreads. In…
By now Bayesian methods are routinely used in practice for solving inverse problems. In inverse problems the parameter or signal of interest is observed only indirectly, as an image of a given map, and the observations are typically further…
We present two examples of a large deviations principle where the rate function is not strictly convex. This is motivated by a model used in mathematical finance (the Heston model), and adds a new item to the zoology of non strictly convex…
Especially in the insurance industry interest rate models play a crucial role e.g. to calculate the insurance company's liabilities, performance scenarios or risk measures. A prominant candidate is the 2-Additive-Factor Gaussian Model…
We study the dependence of volatility on the stock price in the stochastic volatility framework on the example of the Heston model. To be more specific, we consider the conditional expectation of variance (square of volatility) under fixed…
In this note we provide a full conjugacy and subdifferential calculus for convex convex-composite functions in finite-dimensional space. Our approach, based on infimal convolution and cone-convexity, is straightforward and yields the…
The fundamental theorem behind financial markets is that stock prices are intrinsically complex and stochastic. One of the complexities is the volatility associated with stock prices. Volatility is a tendency for prices to change…
We calibrate and test various variants of field theory models of the interest rate with data from eurodollars futures. A model based on a simple psychological factor are seen to provide the best fit to the market. We make a model…
Gaussian process regression is used throughout statistics and machine learning for prediction and uncertainty quantification. A Gaussian process is specified by its mean and covariance functions. Many covariance functions, including…
The martingale expansion provides a refined approximation to the marginal distributions of martingales beyond the normal approximation implied by the martingale central limit theorem. We develop a martingale expansion framework specifically…
The paper is devoted to the study, characterizations, and applications of variational convexity of functions, the property that has been recently introduced by Rockafellar together with its strong counterpart. First we show that these…