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We develop an empirical Bayes framework for experimental design that leverages information from prior related studies. When a researcher has access to estimates from previous studies on similar parameters, they can use empirical Bayes to…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-25 Zhiheng You

The goal of this paper is to develop distributionally robust optimization (DRO) estimators, specifically for multidimensional Extreme Value Theory (EVT) statistics. EVT supports using semi-parametric models called max-stable distributions…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-02 Patrick Kuiper , Ali Hasan , Wenhao Yang , Yuting Ng , Hoda Bidkhori , Jose Blanchet , Vahid Tarokh

The objective of this Philosophiae Doctor (Ph.D) thesis is to propose an efficient approach for optimizing a multidisciplinary black-box model when the optimization problem is constrained and involves a large number of mixed integer design…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-07-24 Paul Saves

The majority of experiments in fundamental science today are designed to be multi-purpose: their aim is not simply to measure a single physical quantity or process, but rather to enable increased precision in the measurement of a number of…

Reducing the number of experimental units is one of the three pillars of the 3R principles (Replace, Reduce, Refine) in animal research. At the same time, statistical error rates need to be controlled to enable reliable inferences and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-08 Leonhard Held , Fadoua Balabdaoui , Saverio Fontana , Samuel Pawel

Designing scientific instrumentation often requires exploring large, highly constrained design spaces using computationally expensive physics simulations. These simulators pose substantial challenges for integrating evolutionary computation…

Experimentation in online digital platforms is used to inform decision making. Specifically, the goal of many experiments is to optimize a metric of interest. Null hypothesis statistical testing can be ill-suited to this task, as it is…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-10 Timothy Sudijono , Simon Ejdemyr , Apoorva Lal , Martin Tingley

We formalize the problem of contextual optimization through the lens of Bayesian experimental design and propose CO-BED -- a general, model-agnostic framework for designing contextual experiments using information-theoretic principles.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-20 Desi R. Ivanova , Joel Jennings , Tom Rainforth , Cheng Zhang , Adam Foster

Robotics and automation offer massive accelerations for solving intractable, multivariate scientific problems such as materials discovery, but the available search spaces can be dauntingly large. Bayesian optimization (BO) has emerged as a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-22 Abdoulatif Cisse , Xenophon Evangelopoulos , Sam Carruthers , Vladimir V. Gusev , Andrew I. Cooper

Finite element (FE) simulations of structures and materials are getting increasingly more accurate, but also more computationally expensive as a collateral result. This development happens in parallel with a growing demand of data-driven…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-31 Leo Guo , Hirak Kansara , Siamak F. Khosroshahi , GuoQi Zhang , Wei Tan

The formalism of Bayesian model selection provides a very elegant way of ranking different physical models in terms of how compatible they are with a given set of observed data. However, its practical application is often hampered by the…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2026-01-19 Nathan Cohen , Jan Hamann , Ameek Malhotra

Optimization is becoming increasingly common in scientific and engineering domains. Oftentimes, these problems involve various levels of stochasticity or uncertainty in generating proposed solutions. Therefore, optimization in these…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-05 Peter D. Tonner , Daniel V. Samarov , A. Gilad Kusne

Domain experts often possess valuable physical insights that are overlooked in fully automated decision-making processes such as Bayesian optimisation. In this article we apply high-throughput (batch) Bayesian optimisation alongside…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-06 Tom Savage , Ehecatl Antonio del Rio Chanona

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a data-efficient method for global black-box optimization of an expensive-to-evaluate fitness function. BO typically assumes that computation cost of BO is cheap, but experiments are time consuming or costly.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-08-18 Doniyor Ulmasov , Caroline Baroukh , Benoit Chachuat , Marc Peter Deisenroth , Ruth Misener

Optimal experimental design (OED) is a framework that leverages a mathematical model of the experiment to identify optimal conditions for conducting the experiment. Under a Bayesian approach, the design objective function is typically…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-27 Thomas E. Coons , Xun Huan

Bayesian optimal experimental design provides a principled framework for selecting experimental settings that maximize obtained information. In this work, we focus on estimating the expected information gain in the setting where the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-02 Chuntao Chen , Tapio Helin , Nuutti Hyvönen , Yuya Suzuki

The optimization of expensive black-box simulators arises in a myriad of modern scientific and engineering applications. Bayesian optimization provides an appealing solution, by leveraging a fitted surrogate model to guide the selection of…

Complex phenomena in engineering and the sciences are often modeled with computationally intensive feed-forward simulations for which a tractable analytic likelihood does not exist. In these cases, it is sometimes necessary to estimate an…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-18 Niccolò Dalmasso , Ann B. Lee , Rafael Izbicki , Taylor Pospisil , Ilmun Kim , Chieh-An Lin

Computer models, aiming at simulating a complex real system, are often calibrated in the light of data to improve performance. Standard calibration methods assume that the optimal values of calibration parameters are invariant to the model…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-09-01 Georgios Karagiannis , Bledar A. Konomi , Guang Lin