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Recent studies indicate that the effects of inter-annual climate-based variability in power system planning are significant and that long samples of demand & weather data (spanning multiple decades) should be considered. At the same time,…

Applications · Statistics 2019-05-30 Adriaan P Hilbers , David J Brayshaw , Axel Gandy

Evaluating resilience in electric distribution systems under severe weather requires models that can connect network topology, hazard simulation, fragility modeling, restoration assumptions, repair strategy, and downstream consequences.…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-19 Xuesong Wang , Caisheng Wang , Carol Miller , Amir Shahin Kamjou , John Norton

Renewable energy is becoming an increasingly important component of energy systems. However, renewable energy production is heavily dependent on the prevailing weather conditions, which are changing as a result of climate change. It is…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-12-02 Edgar Dolores-Tesillos , Noelia Otero , Sam Allen

With a changing climate, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are likely to increase, posing a threat to infrastructure systems' resilience. The response of infrastructure systems to localised failures depends on whether…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-11-21 Qianqian Li , Giuliano Punzo , Craig Robson , Hadi Arbabi , Martin Mayfield

Mitigating climate change demands a transition towards renewable electricity generation, with wind power being a particularly promising technology. Long periods either of high or of low wind therefore essentially define the necessary amount…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-01-07 Juliane Weber , Mark Reyers , Christian Beck , Marc Timme , Joaquim G. Pinto , Dirk Witthaut , Benjamin Schäfer

Accurate projections of wind energy potential under climate change are critical for effective long-term energy planning. While previous studies have highlighted the value of multi-model ensembles, they often fall short in capturing the full…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-06-02 Andrea Lira-Loarca , Francesco Ferrari , Andrea Mazzino

The task of simplifying the complex spatio-temporal variables associated with climate modeling is of utmost importance and comes with significant challenges. In this research, our primary objective is to tailor clustering techniques to…

Applications · Statistics 2023-11-21 Alexis Boulin , Elena Di Bernardino , Thomas Laloë , Gwladys Toulemonde

The planning and operation of renewable energy, especially wind power, depend crucially on accurate, timely, and high-resolution weather information. Coarse-grid global numerical weather forecasts are typically downscaled to meet these…

Climate change has led to an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, posing significant challenges for power distribution systems. In response, this work presents a planning approach in order to enhance the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-10-01 Ahmad Bin Afzal , Nabil Mohammed , Shehab Ahmed , Charalambos Konstantinou

Future greenhouse gas neutral energy systems will be dominated by renewable energy technologies providing variable supply subject to uncertain weather conditions. For this setting, we propose an algorithm for capacity expansion planning: We…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-02 Sebastian Kebrich , Felix Engelhardt , David Franzmann , Christina Büsing , Jochen Linßen , Heidi Heinrichs

Conventional feasibility studies of deep decarbonisation are often limited in their temporal scope, and are thus unable to draw conclusions about grid reliability over multi-decadal time periods. To address this problem, we introduce…

General Economics · Economics 2025-11-20 J. Dunsmore , L. M. Arthur , R. S. Kemp

Long-duration energy storage (LDES) is a key component for fully renewable, sector-coupled energy systems based on wind and solar. While capacity expansion planning has begun to take into account interannual weather variability, it often…

General Economics · Economics 2025-06-11 Felix Schmidt

Coping with prolonged periods of low availability of wind and solar power, also referred to as variable renewable energy droughts or "Dunkelflaute", emerges as a key challenge for realizing decarbonized energy systems based on renewable…

Physics and Society · Physics 2026-05-12 Martin Kittel , Alexander Roth , Wolf-Peter Schill

Power system resilience is vital to modern society, as outages caused by extreme weather can severely disrupt communities. Existing statistical and simulation-based methods for resilience quantification are either retrospective or rely on…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-10 Xuesong Wang , Caisheng Wang

The recent energy crisis starting in 2021 led to record-high gas, coal, carbon and power prices, with electricity reaching up to 40 times the pre-crisis average. This had dramatic consequences for operational and risk management prompting…

Applications · Statistics 2024-08-27 Paul Ghelasi , Florian Ziel

Renewable energy is essential for energy security and global warming mitigation. However, power generation from renewable energy sources is uncertain due to volatile weather conditions and complex equipment operations. To improve…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-09 Yuchen Shi , Nan Chen

The resilience of electric power grids is threatened by natural hazards. Climate-related hazards are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change. Statistical analyses clearly demonstrate a rise in the number of incidents (power…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-04-30 George Karagiannakis , Mathaios Panteli , Sotirios Argyroudis

The integration of renewable energy sources into power systems is expected to increase significantly in the coming decades. This can result in critical situations related to the strong variability in space and time of weather patterns.…

The introduction of more renewable energy sources into the energy system increases the variability and weather dependence of electricity generation. Power system simulations are used to assess the adequacy and reliability of the electricity…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-02-02 Laurens P. Stoop , Erik Duijm , Ad J. Feelders , Machteld van den Broek

The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events is significantly affecting the power grid, causing large-scale outages and impacting power system resilience. Yet limited work has been done on systematically modeling the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-11-06 Apsara Adhikari , Charlotte Wertz , Anamika Dubey , Arslan Ahmad , Ian Dobson