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Probabilistic programming is the idea of writing models from statistics and machine learning using program notations and reasoning about these models using generic inference engines. Recently its combination with deep learning has been…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2019-11-19 Wonyeol Lee , Hangyeol Yu , Xavier Rival , Hongseok Yang

This paper presents a new static analysis for deriving upper bounds on the expected resource consumption of probabilistic programs. The analysis is fully automatic and derives symbolic bounds that are multivariate polynomials of the inputs.…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2017-11-27 Van Chan Ngo , Quentin Carbonneaux , Jan Hoffmann

We introduce an algorithm based on semidefinite programming that yields increasing (resp. decreasing) sequences of lower (resp. upper) bounds on polynomial stationary averages of diffusions with polynomial drift vector and diffusion…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-09-28 Juan Kuntz , Michela Ottobre , Guy-Bart Stan , Mauricio Barahona

Mathematical solvers use parametrized Optimization Problems (OPs) as inputs to yield optimal decisions. In many real-world settings, some of these parameters are unknown or uncertain. Recent research focuses on predicting the value of these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-10 Alan A. Lahoud , Erik Schaffernicht , Johannes A. Stork

We formulate natural gradient variational inference (VI), expectation propagation (EP), and posterior linearisation (PL) as extensions of Newton's method for optimising the parameters of a Bayesian posterior distribution. This viewpoint…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-07 William J. Wilkinson , Simo Särkkä , Arno Solin

We address the challenge of quantifying Bayesian uncertainty and incorporating it in offline use cases of finite-state Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with unknown dynamics. Our approach provides a principled method to disentangle…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Filippo Valdettaro , A. Aldo Faisal

Finding optimal policies for Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) is challenging due to their uncountable state spaces when transformed into fully observable Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) using belief states.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-09-09 Yunus Emre Demirci , Ali Devran Kara , Serdar Yüksel

Exponential generalization bounds with near-tight rates have recently been established for uniformly stable learning algorithms. The notion of uniform stability, however, is stringent in the sense that it is invariant to the data-generating…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-09 Xiao-Tong Yuan , Ping Li

This work introduces a sampling method capable of solving Bayesian inverse problems in function space. It does not assume the log-concavity of the likelihood, meaning that it is compatible with nonlinear inverse problems. The method…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-27 Lorenzo Baldassari , Ali Siahkoohi , Josselin Garnier , Knut Solna , Maarten V. de Hoop

This paper studies a structured compound stochastic program (SP) involving multiple expectations coupled by nonconvex and nonsmooth functions. We present a successive convex-programming based sampling algorithm and establish its…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-05-25 Junyi Liu , Ying Cui , Jong-Shi Pang

We address the problem of static OD matrix estimation from a formal statistical viewpoint. We adopt a novel Bayesian framework to develop a class of models that explicitly cast trip configurations in the study region as random variables. As…

Applications · Statistics 2015-03-17 Luis Carvalho

We consider the problem of expected cost analysis over nondeterministic probabilistic programs, which aims at automated methods for analyzing the resource-usage of such programs. Previous approaches for this problem could only handle…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2019-03-26 Peixin Wang , Hongfei Fu , Amir Kafshdar Goharshady , Krishnendu Chatterjee , Xudong Qin , Wenjun Shi

Prob-solvable loops are probabilistic programs with polynomial assignments over random variables and parametrised distributions, for which the full automation of moment-based invariant generation is decidable. In this paper we extend…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-07-28 Ezio Bartocci , Laura Kovács , Miroslav Stankovič

Randomized algorithms are used in many state-of-the-art solvers for constraint satisfaction problems (CSP) and Boolean satisfiability (SAT) problems. For many of these problems, there is no single solver which will dominate others. Having…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-25 Jake Tuero , Michael Buro

This paper proposes a novel diffusion-based posterior sampling method within a plug-and-play (PnP) framework. Our approach constructs a probability transport from an easy-to-sample terminal distribution to the target posterior, using a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-10 Jinyuan Chang , Chenguang Duan , Yuling Jiao , Ruoxuan Li , Jerry Zhijian Yang , Cheng Yuan

In this paper we consider the problem of obtaining sharp bounds for the performance of temporal difference (TD) methods with linear function approximation for policy evaluation in discounted Markov decision processes. We show that a simple…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-18 Sergey Samsonov , Daniil Tiapkin , Alexey Naumov , Eric Moulines

We study the almost-sure termination problem for probabilistic programs. First, we show that supermartingales with lower bounds on conditional absolute difference provide a sound approach for the almost-sure termination problem. Moreover,…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2018-08-24 Mingzhang Huang , Hongfei Fu , Krishnendu Chatterjee

Estimation of parameters that obey specific constraints is crucial in statistics and machine learning; for example, when parameters are required to satisfy boundedness, monotonicity, or linear inequalities. Traditional approaches impose…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-03 Lachlan Astfalck , Deborshee Sen , Sayan Patra , Edward Cripps , David Dunson

We study the generalization error of randomized learning algorithms -- focusing on stochastic gradient descent (SGD) -- using a novel combination of PAC-Bayes and algorithmic stability. Importantly, our generalization bounds hold for all…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-23 Ben London

This paper focuses on stochastic saddle point problems with decision-dependent distributions. These are problems whose objective is the expected value of a stochastic payoff function and whose data distribution drifts in response to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-11-15 Killian Wood , Emiliano Dall'Anese