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This paper proposes a robust Bayesian accelerated failure time model for censored survival data. We develop a new family of life-time distributions using a scale mixture of the generalized gamma distributions, where we propose a novel super…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-16 Yasuyuki Hamura , Takahiro Onizuka , Shintaro Hashimoto , Shonosuke Sugasawa

We study the problem of robustly estimating the posterior distribution for the setting where observed data can be contaminated with potentially adversarial outliers. We propose Rob-ULA, a robust variant of the Unadjusted Langevin Algorithm…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-07-30 Kush Bhatia , Yi-An Ma , Anca D. Dragan , Peter L. Bartlett , Michael I. Jordan

Outliers can seriously distort statistical inference by inducing excessive sensitivity in the likelihood function, thereby compromising the reliability of Bayesian estimation. To address this issue, we develop a robust Bayesian estimation…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-09 Jeongho Lee , Junmo Song

This paper develops a Bayesian framework for robust causal inference from longitudinal observational data. Many contemporary methods rely on structural assumptions, such as factor models, to adjust for unobserved confounding, but they can…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-20 Angelos Alexopoulos , Nikolaos Demiris

With the ubiquitous availability of unstructured data, growing attention is paid as how to adjust for selection bias in such non-probability samples. The majority of the robust estimators proposed by prior literature are either fully or…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-08 Ali Rafei , Michael R. Elliott , Carol A. C. Flannagan

We present a framework for bridging the gap between sensor attack detection and recovery in cyber-physical systems. The proposed framework models modern-day, complex perception pipelines as bipartite graphs, which combined with anomaly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-14 Axel Andersson , György Dán

We consider the design of a two-arm superiority cluster randomised controlled trial (RCT) with a continuous outcome. We detail Bayesian inference for the analysis of the trial using a linear mixed-effects model. The treatment is compared to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-29 Kevin J Wilson

Increasingly complex applications involve large datasets in combination with non-linear and high dimensional mathematical models. In this context, statistical inference is a challenging issue that calls for pragmatic approaches that take…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2013-01-31 Andreas Raue , Clemens Kreutz , Fabian Joachim Theis , Jens Timmer

We study the problem of certifying the robustness of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) to adversarial input perturbations. Given a compact set of input points $T \subseteq \mathbb{R}^m$ and a set of output points $S \subseteq \mathbb{R}^n$,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-26 Matthew Wicker , Andrea Patane , Luca Laurenti , Marta Kwiatkowska

Nested sampling is a powerful approach to Bayesian inference ultimately limited by the computationally demanding task of sampling from a heavily constrained probability distribution. An effective algorithm in its own right, Hamiltonian…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-03-02 M. J. Betancourt

In many instances, the application of approximate Bayesian methods is hampered by two practical features: 1) the requirement to project the data down to low-dimensional summary, including the choice of this projection, which ultimately…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-26 David T. Frazier

Models for which the likelihood function can be evaluated only up to a parameter-dependent unknown normalising constant, such as Markov random field models, are used widely in computer science, statistical physics, spatial statistics, and…

Computation · Statistics 2016-02-12 Richard G. Everitt , Adam M. Johansen , Ellen Rowing , Melina Evdemon-Hogan

Generalised Bayesian inference updates prior beliefs using a loss function, rather than a likelihood, and can therefore be used to confer robustness against possible mis-specification of the likelihood. Here we consider generalised Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-12 Takuo Matsubara , Jeremias Knoblauch , François-Xavier Briol , Chris. J. Oates

The non-convexity and intractability of distributionally robust chance constraints make them challenging to cope with. From a data-driven perspective, we propose formulating it as a robust optimization problem to ensure that the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-06-23 Zhiping Chen , Wentao Ma , Bingbing Ji

In causal inference confounding may be controlled either through regression adjustment in an outcome model, or through propensity score adjustment or inverse probability of treatment weighting, or both. The latter approaches, which are…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-01-17 Olli Saarela , Léo R. Belzile , David A. Stephens

Many modern experiments, such as microarray gene expression and genome-wide association studies, present the problem of estimating a large number of parallel effects. Bayesian inference is a popular approach for analyzing such data by…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-26 J G Liao , Arthur Berg , Timothy L McMurry

The ordinary Bayes estimator based on the posterior density suffers from the potential problems of non-robustness under data contamination or outliers. In this paper, we consider the general set-up of independent but non-homogeneous (INH)…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-11-28 Tuhin Majumder , Ayanendranath Basu , Abhik Ghosh

Bayesian inference and Gaussian processes are widely used in applications ranging from robotics and control to biological systems. Many of these applications are safety-critical and require a characterization of the uncertainty associated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-10-26 Luca Cardelli , Marta Kwiatkowska , Luca Laurenti , Andrea Patane

Bayesian analysis plays a crucial role in estimating distribution of unknown parameters for given data and model. Due to the curse of dimensionality, it becomes difficult for high-dimensional problems, especially when multiple modes exist.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-18 Zihan Liao , Binbin Li , Hua-Ping Wan

We consider a data-driven robust hypothesis test where the optimal test will minimize the worst-case performance regarding distributions that are close to the empirical distributions with respect to the Wasserstein distance. This leads to a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-01 Liyan Xie , Rui Gao , Yao Xie