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The estimation of linear causal models (also known as structural equation models) from data is a well-known problem which has received much attention in the past. Most previous work has, however, made an explicit or implicit assumption of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Patrik O. Hoyer , Shohei Shimizu , Antti J. Kerminen

Bayesian likelihood-free methods implement Bayesian inference using simulation of data from the model to substitute for intractable likelihood evaluations. Most likelihood-free inference methods replace the full data set with a summary…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-16 Yinan Mao , Xueou Wang , David J. Nott , Michael Evans

Robust time series analysis is an important subject in statistical modeling. Models based on Gaussian distribution are sensitive to outliers, which may imply in a significant degradation in estimation performance as well as in prediction…

Latent variable models provide a powerful framework for incorporating and inferring unobserved factors in observational data. In causal inference, they help account for hidden factors influencing treatment or outcome, thereby addressing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-29 Tetsuro Morimura , Tatsushi Oka , Yugo Suzuki , Daisuke Moriwaki

Accurately gauging the confidence level of Large Language Models' (LLMs) predictions is pivotal for their reliable application. However, LLMs are often uncalibrated inherently and elude conventional calibration techniques due to their…

Linear models are foundational tools in statistics and ubiquitous across the applied sciences. However, conventional statistical inference -- such as $t$-tests and $F$-tests -- are only valid at fixed sample sizes, making them unsuitable…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-08 Michael Lindon , Dae Woong Ham , Martin Tingley , Iavor Bojinov

As large language models (LLMs) often generate plausible but incorrect content, error detection has become increasingly critical to ensure truthfulness. However, existing detection methods often overlook a critical problem we term as…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-09 Hexiang Tan , Fei Sun , Sha Liu , Du Su , Qi Cao , Xin Chen , Jingang Wang , Xunliang Cai , Yuanzhuo Wang , Huawei Shen , Xueqi Cheng

Many proposals have emerged as alternatives to the Heckman selection model, mainly to address the non-robustness of its normal assumption. The 2001 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey data is often used to illustrate this non-robustness of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-02 Fernando de S. Bastos , Wagner Barreto-Souza , Marc G. Genton

Robustness and counterfactual bias are usually evaluated on a test dataset. However, are these evaluations robust? If the test dataset is perturbed slightly, will the evaluation results keep the same? In this paper, we propose a "double…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-04-13 Chong Zhang , Jieyu Zhao , Huan Zhang , Kai-Wei Chang , Cho-Jui Hsieh

Gaussian graphical models (GGM) have been widely used in many high-dimensional applications ranging from biological and financial data to recommender systems. Sparsity in GGM plays a central role both statistically and computationally.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-06-12 Zhaoshi Meng , Brian Eriksson , Alfred O. Hero

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong performance across various natural language processing tasks, yet their proficiency in mathematical reasoning remains a key challenge. Addressing the gap between natural and mathematical…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Xuhan Huang , Qingning Shen , Yan Hu , Anningzhe Gao , Benyou Wang

We provide a comprehensive overview of latent Markov (LM) models for the analysis of longitudinal categorical data. The main assumption behind these models is that the response variables are conditionally independent given a latent process…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-03-16 F. Bartolucci , A. Farcomeni , F. Pennoni

Retrieval Augmented Language Models (RALMs) have gained significant attention for their ability to generate accurate answer and improve efficiency. However, RALMs are inherently vulnerable to imperfect information due to their reliance on…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-22 Seong-Il Park , Jay-Yoon Lee

The detection of influential observations for the standard least squares regression model is a question that has been extensively studied. LAD regression diagnostics offers alternative approaches whose main feature is the robustness. In…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-10-03 Giuseppe Melfi , Susana Faria

The LLM community often reports benchmark results as if they are synonymous with general model capabilities. However, benchmarks can have problems that distort performance, like test set contamination and annotator error. How can we know…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-18 Ryan Othniel Kearns

The random coefficients model is an extension of the linear regression model that allows for unobserved heterogeneity in the population by modeling the regression coefficients as random variables. Given data from this model, the statistical…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-15 Fabian Dunker , Konstantin Eckle , Katharina Proksch , Johannes Schmidt-Hieber

In this work we propose a framework for constructing goodness of fit tests in both low and high-dimensional linear models. We advocate applying regression methods to the scaled residuals following either an ordinary least squares or Lasso…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-04-11 Rajen D. Shah , Peter Bühlmann

Tens of thousands of simultaneous hypothesis tests are routinely performed in genomic studies to identify differentially expressed genes. However, due to unmeasured confounders, many standard statistical approaches may be substantially…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-18 Jin-Hong Du , Larry Wasserman , Kathryn Roeder

We study uniform consistency in nonparametric mixture models as well as closely related mixture of regression (also known as mixed regression) models, where the regression functions are allowed to be nonparametric and the error…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-12-29 Bryon Aragam , Ruiyi Yang

We propose a methodology for testing linear hypothesis in high-dimensional linear models. The proposed test does not impose any restriction on the size of the model, i.e. model sparsity or the loading vector representing the hypothesis.…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-09 Yinchu Zhu , Jelena Bradic