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Infectious diseases are studied to understand their spreading mechanisms, to evaluate control strategies and to predict the risk and course of future outbreaks. Because people only interact with a small number of individuals, and because…

Applications · Statistics 2018-09-05 Ritabrata Dutta , Antonietta Mira , Jukka-Pekka Onnela

Understanding the temporal evolution of sets of vectors is a fundamental challenge across various domains, including ecology, crime analysis, and linguistics. For instance, ecosystem structures evolve due to interactions among plants,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-18 Taichi Aida , Mamoru Komachi , Toshinobu Ogiso , Hiroya Takamura , Daichi Mochihashi

Mathematical and simulation models are often used to predict the spread of a disease and estimate the impact of public health interventions, and many such models have been developed and used during the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-03-18 Jeffrey W. Herrmann , Hongjie Liu , Donald K. Milton

Consensus is a popular technique for distributed state estimation. This formulation allows networks of connected agents or sensors to exchange information about the distribution of a set of targets with their immediate neighbors without the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-06-03 Ishan Paranjape , Islam Hussein , Jeremy Murray-Krezan , Sean Phillips , Suman Chakravorty

Data assimilation plays a crucial role in numerical modeling, enabling the integration of real-world observations into mathematical models to enhance the accuracy and predictive capabilities of simulations. This approach is widely applied…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-11-08 Alexander Lobbe , Dan Crisan , Oana Lang

This article introduces epidemia, an R package for Bayesian, regression-oriented modeling of infectious diseases. The implemented models define a likelihood for all observed data while also explicitly modeling transmission dynamics: an…

Many modern applications collect data that comes in federated spirit, with data kept locally and undisclosed. Till date, most insight into the causal inference requires data to be stored in a central repository. We present a novel framework…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-02 Thanh Vinh Vo , Trong Nghia Hoang , Young Lee , Tze-Yun Leong

For a two-dimensional system of agents modeled by molecular dynamics, we simulate epidemics spreading, which was recently studied on complex networks. Our resulting network model is time-evolving. We study the transitions to spreading as…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-10 M. C. Gonzalez , H. J. Herrmann

Understanding the dynamics of the spread of diseases within populations is critical for effective public health interventions. We extend the classical SIR model by incorporating additional complexities such as the introduction of a cure and…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-10-30 Daniel Perkins , Davis Hunter , Drake Brown , Trevor Garrity , Wyatt Pochman

We study several bayesian inference problems for irreversible stochastic epidemic models on networks from a statistical physics viewpoint. We derive equations which allow to accurately compute the posterior distribution of the time…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2014-03-28 Fabrizio Altarelli , Alfredo Braunstein , Luca Dall'Asta , Alejandro Lage-Castellanos , Riccardo Zecchina

We propose a nonparametric procedure to achieve fast inference in generative graphical models when the number of latent states is very large. The approach is based on iterative latent variable preselection, where we alternate between…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-06 Jacquelyn A. Shelton , Jan Gasthaus , Zhenwen Dai , Joerg Luecke , Arthur Gretton

Individual-based models of contagious processes are useful for predicting epidemic trajectories and informing intervention strategies. In such models, the incorporation of contact network information can capture the non-randomness and…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-11-09 Maxwell H. Wang , Jukka-Pekka Onnela

The COVID-19 pandemic has emphasized the need for a robust understanding of epidemic models. Current models of epidemics are classified as either mechanistic or non-mechanistic: mechanistic models make explicit assumptions on the dynamics…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-01-14 Arnab Sarker , Ali Jadbabaie , Devavrat Shah

Epidemic models often reflect characteristic features of infectious spreading processes by coupled non-linear differential equations considering different states of health (such as Susceptible, Infected, or Recovered). This compartmental…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-12-01 Vaiva Vasiliauskaite , Nino Antulov-Fantulin , Dirk Helbing

The steady state properties of the mean density population of infected cells in a viral spread is simulated by a general forest fire like cellular automaton model with two distinct populations of cells ( permissive and resistant ones) and…

adap-org · Physics 2008-02-03 G. Camelo-Neto , S. Coutinho

A formal but intuitive framework is introduced to bridge the gap between data obtained from empirical studies and that generated by agent-based models. This is based on three key tenets. Firstly, a simulation can be given multiple formal…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2013-02-21 Chih-Chun Chen

We study the problems of estimating the past and future evolutions of two diffusion processes that spread concurrently on a network. Specifically, given a known network $G=(V, \overrightarrow{E})$ and a (possibly noisy) snapshot…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2023-10-31 Nouman Khan , Kangle Mu , Mehrdad Moharrami , Vijay Subramanian

Event-based vision sensors offer high time resolution, high dynamic range, and low power consumption, yet event-based vision models lag behind conventional frame-based vision methods. We argue that this gap is partly due to the lack of…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-04-01 Jens Egholm Pedersen , Dimitris Korakovounis , Jörg Conradt

We introduce a modified spatial $\Lambda$-Fleming-Viot process to model the ancestry of individuals in a population occupying a continuous spatial habitat divided into two areas by a sharp discontinuity of the dispersal rate and effective…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-06-14 Raphael Forien , Harald Ringbauer , Graham Coop

In many settings, as for example wind farms, multiple machines are instantiated to perform the same task, which is called a fleet. The recent advances with respect to the Internet of Things allow control devices and/or machines to connect…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-25 Timothy Verstraeten , Pieter JK Libin , Ann Nowé