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Random population dynamics with catastrophes (events pertaining to possible elimination of a large portion of the population) has a long history in the mathematical literature. In this paper we study an ergodic model for random population…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-03-13 Iddo Ben-Ari , Alexander Roitershtein , Rinaldo B. Schinazi

Population dynamics reflects an underlying birth-death process, where the rates associated with different events may depend on external environmental conditions and on the population density. A whole family of simple and popular…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-07-03 Yitzhak Yahalom , Bnaya Steinmetz , Nadav M. Shnerb

Uncertain partially observable Markov decision processes (uPOMDPs) allow the probabilistic transition and observation functions of standard POMDPs to belong to a so-called uncertainty set. Such uncertainty, referred to as epistemic…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-11-02 Murat Cubuktepe , Nils Jansen , Sebastian Junges , Ahmadreza Marandi , Marnix Suilen , Ufuk Topcu

Many applications -- including power systems, robotics, and economics -- involve a dynamical system interacting with a stochastic and hard-to-model environment. We adopt a reinforcement learning approach to control such systems.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-08-26 Abed AlRahman Al Makdah , Oliver Kosut , Lalitha Sankar , Shaofeng Zou

Birth-death processes track the size of a univariate population, but many biological systems involve interaction between populations, necessitating models for two or more populations simultaneously. A lack of efficient methods for…

Computation · Statistics 2017-08-08 Lam Si Tung Ho , Jason Xu , Forrest W. Crawford , Vladimir N. Minin , Marc A. Suchard

An infinite system of point particles placed in $\mathds{R}^d$ is studied. Its constituents perform random jumps with mutual repulsion described by a translation-invariant jump kernel and interaction potential, respectively. The pure states…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-03-18 Yuri Kozitsky , Michael Röckner

We study simple stochastic scenarios, based on birth-and-death Markovian processes, that describe populations with Allee effect, to account for the role of demographic stochasticity. In the mean-field deterministic limit we recover…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-02-06 Vicenç Méndez , Michael Assaf , Axel Masó-Puigdellosas , Daniel Campos , Werner Horsthemke

The large deviation principle on phase space is proved for a class of Markov processes known as random population dynamics with catastrophes. In the paper we study the process which corresponds to the random population dynamics with linear…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-11-18 A. Logachov , O. Logachova , A. Yambartsev

Many countries have experienced at least two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. The second wave is far more dangerous as distinct strains appear more harmful to human health, but it stems from the complacency about the first wave. This paper…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-06-29 Edilson F. Arruda , Tarun Sharma , Rodrigo e A. Alexandre , Sinnu Susan Thomas

In this paper, we propose a model predictive control (MPC) method for real-time intervention of spreading processes, such as epidemics and wildfire, over large-scale networks. The goal is to allocate budgeted resources each time step to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-10-31 Ruigang Wang , Armaghan Zafar , Ian R. Manchester

Understanding the statistical properties of a collection of individuals subject to random displacements and birth-and-death events is key to several applications in physics and life sciences, encompassing the diagnostic of nuclear reactors…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-06-22 Théophile Bonnet , Davide Mancusi , Andrea Zoia

In large but finite populations, weak demographic stochasticity due to random birth and death events can lead to population extinction. The process is analogous to the escaping problem of trapped particles under random forces. Methods…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-11-28 Xiaoquan Yu , Xiang-Yi Li

We study a finite system of diffusions on the half-line, absorbed when they hit zero, with a correlation effect that is controlled by the proportion of the processes that have been absorbed. As the number of processes in the system becomes…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-02-02 Ben Hambly , Sean Ledger

We define the concept of an `open' Markov process, a continuous-time Markov chain equipped with specified boundary states through which probability can flow in and out of the system. External couplings which fix the probabilities of…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2017-10-03 Blake S. Pollard

We are interested in the dynamic of a structured branching population where the trait of each individual moves according to a Markov process. The rate of division of each individual is a function of its trait and when a branching event…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-11-20 Aline Marguet

We study discretizations of polynomial processes using finite state Markov processes satisfying suitable moment matching conditions. The states of these Markov processes together with their transition probabilities can be interpreted as…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-11 Damir Filipović , Martin Larsson , Sergio Pulido

The present paper considers the constrained optimal control problem with total undiscounted criteria for a continuous-time Markov decision process (CTMDP) in Borel state and action spaces. Under the standard compactness and continuity…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2014-10-31 Xianping Guo , Yi Zhang

In the development of stochastic integration and the theory of semimartingales, Markov processes have been a constant source of inspiration. Despite this historical interweaving, it turned out that semimartingales should be considered the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-11-29 Sebastian Rickelhoff , Alexander Schnurr

In typical single-molecule force spectroscopy experiments the mechanical unfolding of molecular complexes or biomolecules is studied applying a force ramp to one end of the system while the other end is kept fixed in space. The…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2026-05-18 Marco Oestereich , Jürgen Gauss , Gregor Diezemann

In this contribution to the VIEWS 2023 prediction challenge, we propose using an observed Markov model for making predictions of densities of fatalities from armed conflicts. The observed Markov model can be conceptualized as a two-stage…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-17 David Randahl , Johan Vegelius