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For stochastic models with intractable likelihood functions, approximate Bayesian computation offers a way of approximating the true posterior through repeated comparisons of observations with simulated model outputs in terms of a small set…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-24 Carlo Albert , Simone Ulzega , Firat Ozdemir , Fernando Perez-Cruz , Antonietta Mira

We consider stochastic thermodynamics as a theory of statistical inference for experimentally observed fluctuating time-series. To that end, we introduce a general framework for quantifying the knowledge about the dynamical state of the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-19 Bernhard Altaner , Jürgen Vollmer

We characterize the identified sets of a wide range of stochastic choice models, including random utility, various models of boundedly-rational behavior, and dynamic discrete choice. In each of these settings, we show two distributions over…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-02-24 Peter Caradonna , Christopher Turansick

Diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have achieved remarkable quality in image generation that rivals GANs'. But unlike GANs, DPMs use a set of latent variables that lack semantic meaning and cannot serve as a useful representation for…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-03-14 Konpat Preechakul , Nattanat Chatthee , Suttisak Wizadwongsa , Supasorn Suwajanakorn

Recent advances in electron, scanning probe, optical, and chemical imaging and spectroscopy yield bespoke data sets containing the information of structure and functionality of complex systems. In many cases, the resulting data sets are…

Materials Science · Physics 2024-11-15 Yongtao Liu , Bryan D Huey , Maxim A. Ziatdinov , Sergei V. Kalinin

Parameter identification problems are formulated in a probabilistic language, where the randomness reflects the uncertainty about the knowledge of the true values. This setting allows conceptually easily to incorporate new information, e.g.…

Numerical Analysis · Computer Science 2013-03-19 Bojana V. Rosić , Anna Kučerová , Jan Sýkora , Oliver Pajonk , Alexander Litvinenko , Hermann G. Matthies

Starting with a collection of traces generated by process executions, process discovery is the task of constructing a simple model that describes the process, where simplicity is often measured in terms of model size. The challenge of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-04-17 Hanan Alkhammash , Artem Polyvyanyy , Alistair Moffat

The Poisson process is the most elementary continuous-time stochastic process that models a stream of repeating events. It is uniquely characterised by a single parameter called the rate. Instead of a single value for this rate, we here…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-05 Alexander Erreygers , Jasper De Bock

Stochastic thermodynamics lays down a broad framework to revisit the venerable concepts of heat, work and entropy production for individual stochastic trajectories of mesoscopic systems. Remarkably, this approach, relying on stochastic…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-01-31 David Guéry-Odelin , Christopher Jarzynski , Carlos A. Plata , Antonio Prados , Emmanuel Trizac

In this paper we focus on the parameter estimation of dynamic load models with stochastic terms, in particular, load models where protection settings are uncertain, such as in aggregated air conditioning units. We show how the uncertainty…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-04-30 Daniel Adrian Maldonado , Vishwas Rao , Mihai Anitescu , Vivak Patel

We address the problem of safely learning controlled stochastic dynamics from discrete-time trajectory observations, ensuring system trajectories remain within predefined safe regions during both training and deployment. Safety-critical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-03 Luc Brogat-Motte , Alessandro Rudi , Riccardo Bonalli

Unsupervised representation learning aims at describing raw data efficiently to solve various downstream tasks. It has been approached with many techniques, such as manifold learning, diffusion maps, or more recently self-supervised…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-02 Vivien Cabannes , Alberto Bietti , Randall Balestriero

We study the problem of self-supervised structured representation learning using autoencoders for downstream tasks such as generative modeling. Unlike most methods which rely on matching an arbitrary, relatively unstructured, prior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-16 Felix Leeb , Guilia Lanzillotta , Yashas Annadani , Michel Besserve , Stefan Bauer , Bernhard Schölkopf

Stochastic optimisation algorithms are the de facto standard for machine learning with large amounts of data. Handling only a subset of available data in each optimisation step dramatically reduces the per-iteration computational costs,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-12-19 Matthias J. Ehrhardt , Zeljko Kereta , Jingwei Liang , Junqi Tang

The dynamics of stochastic reaction networks within cells are inevitably modulated by factors considered extrinsic to the network such as for instance the fluctuations in ribsome copy numbers for a gene regulatory network. While several…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2015-06-19 Christoph Zechner , Heinz Koeppl

This paper introduces a novel model-free approach to synthesize virtual sensors for the estimation of dynamical quantities that are unmeasurable at runtime but are available for design purposes on test benches. After collecting a dataset of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-03-24 Daniele Masti , Daniele Bernardini , Alberto Bemporad

We present a stochastic constrained output-feedback data-driven predictive control scheme for linear time-invariant systems subject to bounded additive disturbances. The approach uses data-driven predictors based on an extension of Willems'…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-07 Johannes Teutsch , Sebastian Kerz , Dirk Wollherr , Marion Leibold

Using a variational technique, we generalize the statistical physics approach of learning from random examples to make it applicable to real data. We demonstrate the validity and relevance of our method by computing approximate estimators…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2009-11-07 D. Malzahn , M. Opper

Renewable energy projects, such as large offshore wind farms, are critical to achieving low-emission targets set by governments. Stochastic computer models allow us to explore future scenarios to aid decision making whilst considering the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-07 Jack C. Kennedy , Daniel A. Henderson , Kevin J. Wilson

The recently developed variational autoencoders (VAEs) have proved to be an effective confluence of the rich representational power of neural networks with Bayesian methods. However, most work on VAEs use a rather simple prior over the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-08-29 Prasoon Goyal , Zhiting Hu , Xiaodan Liang , Chenyu Wang , Eric Xing