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In a regression model with multiple response variables and multiple explanatory variables, if the difference of the mean vectors of the response variables for different values of explanatory variables is always in the direction of the first…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-17 Koji Tsukuda , Shun Matsuura

We consider assessing causal mediation in the presence of a post-treatment event (examples include noncompliance, a clinical event, or death). We identify natural mediation effects for the entire study population and for each principal…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-13 Chao Cheng , Fan Li

Additive noise models (ANMs) are an important setting studied in causal inference. Most of the existing works on ANMs assume causal sufficiency, i.e., there are no unobserved confounders. This paper focuses on confounded ANMs, where a set…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-16 Muhammad Qasim Elahi , Mahsa Ghasemi , Murat Kocaoglu

The Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is a foundational metric in causal inference, widely used to assess intervention efficacy in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). However, in many applications -- particularly in healthcare -- this static…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-23 Julianna Piskorz , Krzysztof Kacprzyk , Harry Amad , Mihaela van der Schaar

Stepped-wedge cluster randomized trials (SW-CRTs) evaluate interventions rolled out across clusters over time. Standard analyses typically use immediate-treatment (IT) models, which assume effects begin at crossover and remain constant…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-21 Yongdong Ouyang , Monica Taljaard , James P. Hughes , Fan Li

In modern statistics, interests shift from pursuing the uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator to reducing mean squared error (MSE) or residual squared error. Shrinkage based estimation and regression methods offer better prediction…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-25 Tianyu Zhan , Haoda Fu , Jian Kang

When we plan to use money as an incentive to change the behavior of a person (such as making riders to deliver more orders or making consumers to buy more items), the common approach of this problem is to adopt a two-stage framework in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-08 Juhua Chen , Karson shi , Jialing He , North Chen , Kele Jiang

Estimating treatment effects is of great importance for many biomedical applications with observational data. Particularly, interpretability of the treatment effects is preferable for many biomedical researchers. In this paper, we first…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-28 Kan Chen , Qishuo Yin , Qi Long

Distribution shifts are ubiquitous in real-world machine learning applications, posing a challenge to the generalization of models trained on one data distribution to another. We focus on scenarios where data distributions vary across…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-05 Steven Wilkins-Reeves , Xu Chen , Qi Ma , Christine Agarwal , Aude Hofleitner

We study the model selection problem in conditional average treatment effect (CATE) prediction. Unlike previous works on this topic, we focus on preserving the rank order of the performance of candidate CATE predictors to enable accurate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-20 Yuta Saito , Shota Yasui

Estimation of average treatment effects on the treated (ATT) is an important topic of causal inference in econometrics and statistics. This problem seems to be often treated as a simple modification or extension of that of estimating…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-07 Heng Shu , Zhiqiang Tan

In recommender systems, a common problem is the presence of various biases in the collected data, which deteriorates the generalization ability of the recommendation models and leads to inaccurate predictions. Doubly robust (DR) learning…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2022-12-20 Haoxuan Li , Quanyu Dai , Yuru Li , Yan Lyu , Zhenhua Dong , Xiao-Hua Zhou , Peng Wu

The weighted average treatment effect (WATE) is a causal measure for the comparison of interventions in a specific target population, which may be different from the population where data are sampled from. For instance, when the goal is to…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-17 Yebin Tao , Haoda Fu

Considering censored outcomes in survival analysis can lead to quite complex results in the model setting of causal inference. Causal inference has attracted a lot of attention over the past few years, but little research has been done on…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-11 Byeonghee Lee , Joonsung Kang

We study the problem of estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) in adaptive experiments where treatment can only be encouraged -- rather than directly assigned -- via a binary instrumental variable. Building on semiparametric…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-30 Miruna Oprescu , Brian M Cho , Nathan Kallus

Covariate-specific treatment effects (CSTEs) represent heterogeneous treatment effects across subpopulations defined by certain selected covariates. In this article, we consider marginal structural models where CSTEs are linearly…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-25 Peng Wu , Zhiqiang Tan , Wenjie Hu , Xiao-Hua Zhou

With robots increasingly operating in human-centric environments, ensuring soft and safe physical interactions, whether with humans, surroundings, or other machines, is essential. While compliant hardware can facilitate such interactions,…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-08-29 Mateusz Jaszczuk , Nadia Figueroa

Marginal maximum likelihood estimation (MMLE) in item response theory (IRT) is highly sensitive to aberrant responses, such as careless answering and random guessing, which can reduce estimation accuracy. To address this issue, this study…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-18 Yuki Itaya , Kenichi Hayashi

Augmenting randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with external real-world data (RWD) has the potential to improve the finite sample efficiency of treatment effect estimators. We describe using adaptive targeted maximum likelihood estimation…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-30 Sky Qiu , Jens Tarp , Andrew Mertens , Mark van der Laan

Estimation of causal effects is the core objective of many scientific disciplines. However, it remains a challenging task, especially when the effects are estimated from observational data. Recently, several promising machine learning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-02 Niki Kiriakidou , Christos Diou
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