Related papers: Toward a comprehensive system for constructing com…
Epidemics are inherently stochastic, and stochastic models provide an appropriate way to describe and analyse such phenomena. Given temporal incidence data consisting of, for example, the number of new infections or removals in a given time…
Pairwise models are used widely to model epidemic spread on networks. These include the modelling of susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) epidemics on regular networks and extensions to SIS dynamics and contact tracing on more exotic networks…
In the present paper, our goal is to establish a framework for the mathematical modelling and the analysis of the spread of an epidemic in a large population commuting regularly, typically along a time-periodic pattern, as is roughly…
Most epidemic processes on networks can be modelled by a compartmental model, that specifies the spread of a disease in a population. The corresponding compartmental graph describes how the viral state of the nodes (individuals) changes…
We propose a compartmental model for epidemiology wherein the population is split into groups with either comply or refuse to comply with protocols designed to slow the spread of a disease. Parallel to the disease spread, we assume that…
In this paper we first introduce the general stochastic epidemic model for the spread of infectious diseases. Then we give methods for inferring model parameters such as the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and vaccination coverage $v_c$…
We introduce an interacting particle system that models the spread of an epidemic in terms of heterogeneous diffusive dynamics, rather than exogenous contact and transmission rates at the population level as in classical compartmental…
Individual-based models of contagious processes are useful for predicting epidemic trajectories and informing intervention strategies. In such models, the incorporation of contact network information can capture the non-randomness and…
The study of social networks, and in particular the spread of disease on networks, has attracted considerable recent attention in the physics community. In this paper, we show that a large class of standard epidemiological models, the…
A compartment epidemic model for infectious disease spreading is investigated, where movement of individuals is governed by spatial diffusion. The model includes infection age of the infected individuals and assumes a logistic growth of the…
Dynamics on networks is considered from the perspective of Markov stochastic processes. We partially describe the state of the system through network motifs and infer any missing data using the available information. This versatile approach…
Spatial connectivity is an important consideration when modelling infectious disease data across a geographical region. Connectivity can arise for many reasons, including shared characteristics between regions, and human or vector movement.…
I present three models of plant--pathogen interactions. The models are stochastic and spatially explicit at the scale of individual plants. For each model, I use a version of pair approximation or moment closure along with a separation of…
The susceptible-exposed-infectious-susceptible (SEIS) model is well-known in mathematical epidemiology as a model of infection in which there is a latent period between the moment of infection and the onset of infectiousness. The…
We present a stochastic model for two successive SIR (Susceptible, Infectious, Recovered) epidemics in the same network structured population. Individuals infected during the first epidemic might have (partial) immunity for the second one.…
We consider the spread of infectious disease through contact networks of Configuration Model type. We assume that the disease spreads through contacts and infected individuals recover into an immune state. We discuss a number of existing…
In the Staged Progression (SP) epidemic models, infected individuals are classified into a suitable number of states. The goal of these models is to describe as closely as possible the effect of differences in infectiousness exhibited by…
Social contact matrices are essential tools in infectious disease epidemiology as they quantify close-range human contact patterns which directly drive the transmission of airborne infectious diseases. In this work we propose a Bayesian…
We introduce and analyze coupled, multi-strain epidemic models designed to simulate the emergence and dissemination of mutant (e.g. drug-resistant) pathogen strains. In particular, we investigate the mathematical and biological properties…
We study the diffusion of epidemics on networks that are partitioned into local communities. The gross structure of hierarchical networks of this kind can be described by a quotient graph. The rationale of this approach is that individuals…