Related papers: Sequential Monte Carlo Learning for Time Series St…
Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms represent a suite of robust computational methodologies utilized for state estimation and parameter inference within dynamical systems, particularly in real-time or online environments where data…
We introduce a new Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach designed for efficient sampling of highly correlated and multimodal posteriors. Parallel tempering, though effective, is a costly technique for sampling such posteriors. Our…
Many machine learning problems can be framed in the context of estimating functions, and often these are time-dependent functions that are estimated in real-time as observations arrive. Gaussian processes (GPs) are an attractive choice for…
Approximate inference in probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) can be grouped into deterministic methods and Monte-Carlo-based methods. The former can often provide accurate and rapid inferences, but are typically associated with biases…
We present a general framework for accelerating a large class of widely used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. Our approach exploits fast, iterative approximations to the target density to speculatively evaluate many potential…
Discrete data are abundant and often arise as counts or rounded data. These data commonly exhibit complex distributional features such as zero-inflation, over-/under-dispersion, boundedness, and heaping, which render many parametric models…
We present a Metropolis-Hastings Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for detecting hidden variables in a continuous time Bayesian network (CTBN), which uses reversible jumps in the sense defined by (Green 1995). In common with several…
Decoding complex relationships among large numbers of variables with relatively few observations is one of the crucial issues in science. One approach to this problem is Gaussian graphical modeling, which describes conditional independence…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have become powerful tools for Bayesian inference. However, they do not scale well to large-data problems. Divide-and-conquer strategies, which split the data into batches and, for each batch, run…
Sequential algorithms such as sequential importance sampling (SIS) and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) have proven fundamental in Bayesian inference for models not admitting a readily available likelihood function. For approximate Bayesian…
One of the key challenges in identifying nonlinear and possibly non-Gaussian state space models (SSMs) is the intractability of estimating the system state. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, such as the particle filter (introduced more…
We consider a class of high-dimensional spatial filtering problems, where the spatial locations of observations are unknown and driven by the partially observed hidden signal. This problem is exceptionally challenging as not only is…
We introduce methodology for real-time inference in general-state-space hidden Markov models. Specifically, we extend recent advances in controlled sequential Monte Carlo (CSMC) methods-originally proposed for offline smoothing-to the…
We propose a novel sampling framework for inference in probabilistic models: an active learning approach that converges more quickly (in wall-clock time) than Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) benchmarks. The central challenge in…
Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods offer a principled approach to Bayesian uncertainty quantification but are traditionally limited by the need for full-batch gradient evaluations. We introduce a scalable variant by incorporating…
In Bayesian phylogenetics, our goal is to estimate the posterior distribution over phylogenetic trees. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are widely used to approximate the phylogenetic posterior distributions. For large-scale sequence data,…
Stochastic reaction network models are often used to explain and predict the dynamics of gene regulation in single cells. These models usually involve several parameters, such as the kinetic rates of chemical reactions, that are not…
In the context of Bayesian inversion for scientific and engineering modeling, Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling strategies are the benchmark due to their flexibility and robustness in dealing with arbitrary posterior probability density…
We consider the problem of optimizing a real-valued continuous function $f$ using a Bayesian approach, where the evaluations of $f$ are chosen sequentially by combining prior information about $f$, which is described by a random process…
In the last few decades, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have been widely applied to Bayesian updating of structural dynamic models in the field of structural health monitoring. Recently, several MCMC algorithms have been developed…