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Estimating failure probabilities of engineering systems is an important problem in many engineering fields. In this work we consider such problems where the failure probability is extremely small (e.g $\leq10^{-10}$). In this case, standard…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-05-24 Xinjuan Chen , Jinglai Li

Variational inference lies at the core of many state-of-the-art algorithms. To improve the approximation of the posterior beyond parametric families, it was proposed to include MCMC steps into the variational lower bound. In this work we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-09-28 Christopher Wolf , Maximilian Karl , Patrick van der Smagt

For several decades now, Bayesian inference techniques have been applied to theories of particle physics, cosmology and astrophysics to obtain the probability density functions of their free parameters. In this study, we review and compare…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2025-09-03 Joshua Albert , Csaba Balazs , Andrew Fowlie , Will Handley , Nicholas Hunt-Smith , Roberto Ruiz de Austri , Martin White

Monte Carlo methods are widely used to estimate observables in many-body quantum systems. However, conventional sampling schemes often require a large number of samples to achieve sufficient accuracy. In this work we propose the…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-01-29 Wenxuan Zhang , Dingzu Wang , Dario Poletti

Radio weak lensing, while a highly promising complementary probe to optical weak lensing, will require incredible precision in the measurement of galaxy shape parameters. In this paper, we extend the Bayesian Inference for Radio…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2018-11-05 M. Rivi , M. Lochner , S. T. Balan , I. Harrison , F. B. Abdalla

We present a comparison of simulation-based inference to full, field-based analytical inference in cosmological data analysis. To do so, we explore parameter inference for two cases where the information content is calculable analytically:…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2021-12-08 T. Lucas Makinen , Tom Charnock , Justin Alsing , Benjamin D. Wandelt

Bayesian inference in the physical sciences faces a fundamental challenge: the imperative for high-fidelity physical modeling often clashes with the intrinsic limitations of stochastic sampling algorithms. Complex, high-dimensional…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2026-04-09 Bo Liang , Chang Liu , Hanlin Song , Tianyu Zhao , Minghui Du , He Wang , Haohao Gu , Sensen He , Yuxiang Xu , Wei-Liang Qian , Li-e Qiang , Peng Xu , Ziren Luo , Mingming Sun

We introduce a method that combines the power of both the lattice Green function Monte Carlo (LGFMC) with the auxiliary field techniques (AFQMC), and allows us to compute exact ground state properties of the Hubbard model for U<~ 4t on…

Strongly Correlated Electrons · Physics 2015-06-03 Sandro Sorella

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo is a widely used algorithm for sampling from posterior distributions of complex Bayesian models. It can efficiently explore high-dimensional parameter spaces guided by simulated Hamiltonian flows. However, the…

Computation · Statistics 2019-04-29 Lingge Li , Andrew Holbrook , Babak Shahbaba , Pierre Baldi

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) has been widely adopted in the statistics community because of its ability to sample high-dimensional distributions much more efficiently than other Metropolis-based methods. Despite this, HMC often performs…

Computation · Statistics 2019-11-19 Arya A. Pourzanjani , Linda R. Petzold

We introduce a new Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach designed for efficient sampling of highly correlated and multimodal posteriors. Parallel tempering, though effective, is a costly technique for sampling such posteriors. Our…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2014-10-01 Benjamin Farr , Vicky Kalogera , Erik Luijten

Efficient sampling from complex and high dimensional target distributions turns out to be a fundamental task in diverse disciplines such as scientific computing, statistics and machine learning. In this paper, we propose a new kind of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-24 Xiaojie Wang , Bin Yang

In this work we present a new and efficient Bayesian method for nonlinear three dimensional large scale structure inference. We employ a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampler to obtain samples from a multivariate highly non-Gaussian…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2015-05-14 J. Jasche , F. S. Kitaura

Auxiliary Field Quantum Monte Carlo (AFQMC) has emerged as a powerful framework for treating strongly correlated electronic systems, offering a favorable balance between computational cost and accuracy. In this paper, we present a novel…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2026-04-03 Maxine Luo , Victor Chen , Yu Wang , Christian B. Mendl

This article reviews the application of advanced Monte Carlo techniques in the context of Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC). MLMC is a strategy employed to compute expectations which can be biased in some sense, for instance, by using the…

Computation · Statistics 2017-04-25 Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Carina Suciu

The Self-Learning Monte Carlo (SLMC) method is a Monte Carlo approach that has emerged in recent years by integrating concepts from machine learning with conventional Monte Carlo techniques. Designed to accelerate the numerical study of…

Strongly Correlated Electrons · Physics 2025-07-18 Gaopei Pan , Chuang Chen , Zi Yang Meng

Sampling-based inference has seen a surge of interest in recent years. Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) has emerged as a powerful algorithm that leverages concepts from Hamiltonian dynamics to efficiently explore complex target distributions.…

Computation · Statistics 2026-04-07 Arghya Mukherjee , Dootika Vats

Inference for spatial generalized linear mixed models (SGLMMs) for high-dimensional non-Gaussian spatial data is computationally intensive. The computational challenge is due to the high-dimensional random effects and because Markov chain…

Computation · Statistics 2018-10-09 Yawen Guan , Murali Haran

Local primordial non-Gaussianity, parameterised as $f_{\rm NL}^{\rm local}$, will be stringently constrained using state-of-the-art methods applied to next-generation galaxy redshift survey data. In this paper, in preparation for the…

The Underdamped Langevin Monte Carlo (ULMC) is a popular Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling method. It requires the computation of the full gradient of the log-density at each iteration, an expensive operation if the dimension of the problem…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-23 Zhiyan Ding , Qin Li , Jianfeng Lu , Stephen J. Wright
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