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Related papers: Isotonic conditional laws

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Generating rational and generally accurate responses to tasks, often accompanied by example demonstrations, highlights Large Language Model's (LLM's) remarkable In-Context Learning (ICL) capabilities without requiring updates to the model's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Debanjan Dutta , Faizanuddin Ansari , Swagatam Das

The standard conditional probability definition formula is derived as a consequence of the Insufficient Reason Principle expressed as the Maximum Relative Divergence Principle for grading (order-comonotonic) functions on a totally ordered…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-14 Alexander Dukhovny

The predictions of Large Language Models (LLMs) on downstream tasks often improve significantly when including examples of the input--label relationship in the context. However, there is currently no consensus about how this in-context…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-14 Jannik Kossen , Yarin Gal , Tom Rainforth

Classical results for exchangeable systems of random variables are extended to multi-class systems satisfying a natural partial exchangeability assumption. It is proved that the conditional law of a finite multi-class system, given the…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-10-16 Carl Graham

In-Context Learning (ICL) is suffering from unsatisfactory performance and under-calibration due to high prior bias and unfaithful confidence. Some previous works fine-tuned language models for better ICL performance with enormous datasets…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-02-16 Yufeng Zhao , Yoshihiro Sakai , Naoya Inoue

In-context learning (ICL) is the ability of a large language model (LLM) to learn a new task from a few demonstrations presented as part of the context. Past studies have attributed a large portion of the success of ICL to the way these…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-10 Ioana Marinescu , Kyunghyun Cho , Eric Karl Oermann

In-Context Learning (ICL) enables pretrained LLMs to adapt to downstream tasks by conditioning on a small set of input-output demonstrations, without any parameter updates. Although there have been many theoretical efforts to explain how…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-23 Xuhan Tong , Yuchen Zeng , Jiawei Zhang

In this note, we establish a compact law of the iterated logarithm under the upper capacity for independent and identically distributed random variables in a sub-linear expectation space. For showing the result, a self-normalized law of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-02-28 Li-Xin Zhang

We study a class of determinantal ideals that are related to conditional independence (CI) statements with hidden variables. Such CI statements correspond to determinantal conditions on a matrix whose entries are probabilities of events…

Commutative Algebra · Mathematics 2023-01-02 Oliver Clarke , Fatemeh Mohammadi , Johannes Rauh

In-Context Learning (ICL) is a technique by which language models make predictions based on examples provided in their input context. Previously, their context window size imposed a limit on the number of examples that can be shown, making…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Jinheon Baek , Sun Jae Lee , Prakhar Gupta , Geunseob Oh , Siddharth Dalmia , Prateek Kolhar

As systems are getting more autonomous with the development of artificial intelligence, it is important to discover the causal knowledge from observational sensory inputs. By encoding a series of cause-effect relations between events,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-16 Yuhao Wang , Vlado Menkovski , Hao Wang , Xin Du , Mykola Pechenizkiy

The classical causal relations between a set of variables, some observed and some latent, can induce both equality constraints (typically conditional independences) as well as inequality constraints (Instrumental and Bell inequalities being…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-04-11 Shashaank Khanna , Marina Maciel Ansanelli , Matthew F. Pusey , Elie Wolfe

In-context Learning (ICL) is the ability of Large Language Models (LLMs) to perform new tasks when conditioned on prompts comprising a few task examples. However, ICL performance can be critically sensitive to the choice of examples. To…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-02-23 Shivanshu Gupta , Clemens Rosenbaum , Ethan R. Elenberg

In this paper, we discuss general criteria of limsup law of iterated logarithm (LIL) for continuous-time Markov processes. We consider minimal assumptions for LILs to hold at zero(at infinity, respectively) in general metric measure spaces.…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-06-13 Soobin Cho , Panki Kim , Jaehun Lee

We introduce a new updating rule, the conditional maximum likelihood rule (CML) for updating ambiguous information. The CML formula replaces the likelihood term in Bayes' rule with the maximal likelihood of the given signal conditional on…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2020-12-29 Rui Tang

Conditionals are useful for modelling, but are not always sufficiently expressive for capturing information accurately. In this paper we make the case for a form of conditional that is situation-based. These conditionals are more expressive…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-04-18 Giovanni Casini , Thomas Meyer , Ivan Varzinczak

We propose a test of the conditional independence of random variables $X$ and~$Y$ given~$Z$ under the additional assumption that $X$ is stochastically nondecreasing in~$Z$. The well-documented hardness of testing conditional independence…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-24 Rohan Hore , Jake A. Soloff , Rina Foygel Barber , Richard J. Samworth

The goal of continual learning is to find a model that solves multiple learning tasks which are presented sequentially to the learner. A key challenge in this setting is that the learner may forget how to solve a previous task when learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-09 Liangzu Peng , Paris V. Giampouras , René Vidal

In-context learning (ICL) is one of the most powerful and most unexpected capabilities to emerge in recent transformer-based large language models (LLMs). Yet the mechanisms that underlie it are poorly understood. In this paper, we…

Implicit in-context learning (ICL) has newly emerged as a promising paradigm that simulates ICL behaviors in the representation space of Large Language Models (LLMs), aiming to attain few-shot performance at zero-shot cost. However,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Jiaqian Li , Yanshu Li , Ligong Han , Ruixiang Tang , Wenya Wang