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Accurately modeling time-continuous stochastic processes from irregular observations remains a significant challenge. In this paper, we leverage ideas from generative modeling of image data to push the boundary of time series generation.…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-05-30 T. Jahn , J. Chemseddine , P. Hagemann , C. Wald , G. Steidl

A regression-based BNN model is proposed to predict spatiotemporal quantities like hourly rider demand with calibrated uncertainties. The main contributions of this paper are (i) A feed-forward deterministic neural network (DetNN)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-01-18 Xinyu Hu , Paul Szerlip , Theofanis Karaletsos , Rohit Singh

We consider the problem of including additional knowledge in estimating sparse Gaussian graphical models (sGGMs) from aggregated samples, arising often in bioinformatics and neuroimaging applications. Previous joint sGGM estimators either…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-18 Beilun Wang , Arshdeep Sekhon , Yanjun Qi

Probabilistic modeling of multidimensional spatiotemporal data is critical to many real-world applications. As real-world spatiotemporal data often exhibits complex dependencies that are nonstationary and nonseparable, developing effective…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-01 Mengying Lei , Aurelie Labbe , Lijun Sun

Time series forecasting remains a central challenge problem in almost all scientific disciplines. We introduce a novel load forecasting method in which observed dynamics are modeled as a forced linear system using Dynamic Mode Decomposition…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-07-13 Daniel Dylewsky , David Barajas-Solano , Tong Ma , Alexandre M. Tartakovsky , J. Nathan Kutz

Network models are increasingly vital in psychometrics for analyzing relational data, which are often accompanied by high-dimensional node attributes. Joint latent space models (JLSM) provide an elegant framework for integrating these data…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-24 Bin Lv , Yincai Tang , Siliang Zhang

Predicting future human motion is critical for intelligent robots to interact with humans in the real world, and human motion has the nature of multi-granularity. However, most of the existing work either implicitly modeled…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-10-13 Xiaoli Liu , Jianqin Yin

Gaussian graphical models are widely used to represent conditional dependence among random variables. In this paper, we propose a novel estimator for data arising from a group of Gaussian graphical models that are themselves dependent. A…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-09-01 Yuying Xie , Yufeng Liu , William Valdar

The generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) is widely used for analyzing correlated data, particularly in large-scale biomedical and social science applications. Scalable Bayesian inference for GLMMs is challenging because the marginal…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-07 Samuel I. Berchuck , Youngsoo Baek , Felipe A. Medeiros , Andrea Agazzi

Stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) is a computationally efficient sampler for Bayesian posterior inference given a large scale dataset. Although SGLD is designed for unbounded random variables, many practical models incorporate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-21 Soma Yokoi , Takuma Otsuka , Issei Sato

Recent studies have shifted their focus towards formulating traffic forecasting as a spatio-temporal graph modeling problem. Typically, they constructed a static spatial graph at each time step and then connected each node with itself…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-14 Chuanpan Zheng , Xiaoliang Fan , Shirui Pan , Haibing Jin , Zhaopeng Peng , Zonghan Wu , Cheng Wang , Philip S. Yu

State space models (SSMs) are a flexible approach to modeling complex time series. However, inference in SSMs is often computationally prohibitive for long time series. Stochastic gradient MCMC (SGMCMC) is a popular method for scalable…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-07-11 Christopher Aicher , Yi-An Ma , Nicholas J. Foti , Emily B. Fox

Score-based generative models (SGMs) have demonstrated unparalleled sampling quality and diversity in numerous fields, such as image generation, voice synthesis, and tabular data synthesis, etc. Inspired by those outstanding results, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-27 Haksoo Lim , Jaehoon Lee , Sewon Park , Minjung Kim , Noseong Park

Accurate prediction of travel time is an essential feature to support Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS). The non-linearity of traffic states, however, makes this prediction a challenging task. Here we propose to use dynamic linear…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-03 Semin Kwak , Nikolas Geroliminis

Graphical models describe associations between variables through the notion of conditional independence. Gaussian graphical models are a widely used class of such models where the relationships are formalized by non-null entries of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-08 Sagnik Bhadury , Riten Mitra , Jeremy T. Gaskins

Distributed Lag Models (DLMs) and similar regression approaches such as MIDAS have been used for many decades in econometrics and more recently to investigate how poor air quality adversely affects human health. In this paper we describe…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-30 Daniel Dempsey , Jason Wyse

Regression models are used for inference and prediction in a wide range of applications providing a powerful scientific tool for researchers and analysts from different fields. In many research fields the amount of available data as well as…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-08 Aliaksandr Hubin , Geir Storvik , Florian Frommlet

A valuable step in the modeling of multiscale dynamical systems in fields such as computational chemistry, biology, materials science and more, is the representative sampling of the phase space over long timescales of interest; this task is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-29 Ellis R. Crabtree , Juan M. Bello-Rivas , Ioannis G. Kevrekidis

Stochastic differential equation mixed-effects models (SDEMEMs) are flexible hierarchical models that are able to account for random variability inherent in the underlying time-dynamics, as well as the variability between experimental units…

Computation · Statistics 2021-01-22 Samuel Wiqvist , Andrew Golightly , Ashleigh T. McLean , Umberto Picchini

In this work, we propose a modeling procedure for fMRI data analysis using a Bayesian Matrix-Variate Dynamic Linear Model (MVDLM). With this type of model, less complex than the more traditional temporal-spatial models, we are able to take…

Applications · Statistics 2020-01-22 Johnatan Cardona Jiménez , Carlos A. de B. Pereira , Victor Fossaluza