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We present a new algorithm for discovering patterns in time series and other sequential data. We exhibit a reliable procedure for building the minimal set of hidden, Markovian states that is statistically capable of producing the behavior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Cosma Rohilla Shalizi , Kristina Lisa Shalizi , James P. Crutchfield

We aim at the construction of a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) of assigned complexity (number of states of the underlying Markov chain) which best approximates, in Kullback-Leibler divergence rate, a given stationary process. We establish, under…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2014-07-03 Lorenzo Finesso , Angela Grassi , Peter Spreij

Stochastic processes abound in nature and accurately modeling them is essential across the quantitative sciences. They can be described by hidden Markov models (HMMs) or by their quantum extensions (QHMMs). These models explain and give…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-12-18 Magdalini Zonnios , Alec Boyd , Felix C. Binder

This work proposes a multi-agent filtering algorithm over graphs for finite-state hidden Markov models (HMMs), which can be used for sequential state estimation or for tracking opinion formation over dynamic social networks. We show that…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-03-10 Mert Kayaalp , Virginia Bordignon , Stefan Vlaski , Ali H. Sayed

This paper explores the application of Hidden Markov Models (HMM) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks for economic forecasting, focusing on predicting CPI inflation rates. The study explores a new approach that integrates…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-07 Guhan Sivakumar

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are general purpose models for time-series data widely used across the sciences because of their flexibility and elegance. However fitting HMMs can often be computationally demanding and time consuming,…

Computation · Statistics 2021-09-15 Marnus Stoltz , Gene Stoltz , Kazushige Obara , Ting Wang , David Bryant

Quantum machine learning (QML) is promising for potential speedups and improvements in conventional machine learning (ML) tasks (e.g., classification/regression). The search for ideal QML models is an active research field. This includes…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2022-02-07 Mahabubul Alam , Swaroop Ghosh

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) form a useful tool for modeling dynamical systems. They are particularly useful for representing environments such as road networks and office…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-30 Hagit Shatkay

Stochastic volatility models are the backbone of financial engineering. We study both continuous time diffusions as well as discrete time models. We propose two novel approaches to estimating stochastic volatility diffusions, one using…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-07-30 Eric Ghysels , Jack Morgan , Hamed Mohammadbagherpoor

Sequential data modeling and analysis have become indispensable tools for analyzing sequential data, such as time-series data, because larger amounts of sensed event data have become available. These methods capture the sequential structure…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-02-15 Hiromi Narimatsu , Hiroyuki Kasai

Sequence analysis is being more and more widely used for the analysis of social sequences and other multivariate categorical time series data. However, it is often complex to describe, visualize, and compare large sequence data, especially…

Computation · Statistics 2021-03-22 Satu Helske , Jouni Helske

Quantum computing has become increasingly practical in solving real-world problems due to advances in hardware and algorithms. In this paper, we aim to design and estimate quantum machine learning and hybrid quantum-classical models in a…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-07-14 Leyang Wang , Yilun Gong , Zongrui Pei

As deep neural networks continue to revolutionize various application domains, there is increasing interest in making these powerful models more understandable and interpretable, and narrowing down the causes of good and bad predictions. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-10-04 Viktoriya Krakovna , Finale Doshi-Velez

This research focuses on the algorithms and approaches for learning Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) and compares HMM learning methods and algorithms. HMM is a statistical Markov model in which the system being modeled is assumed to be a Markov…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-16 Taha Mansouri , Mohamadreza Sadeghimoghadam , Iman Ghasemian Sahebi

Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are one of the most fundamental and widely used statistical tools for modeling discrete time series. In general, learning HMMs from data is computationally hard (under cryptographic assumptions), and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-07-10 Daniel Hsu , Sham M. Kakade , Tong Zhang

Hidden semi-Markov Models (HSMM's) - while broadly in use - are restricted to a discrete and uniform time grid. They are thus not well suited to explain often irregularly spaced discrete event data from continuous-time phenomena. We show…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-18 Nicolai Engelmann , Heinz Koeppl

This paper intends to apply the Hidden Markov Model into stock market and and make predictions. Moreover, four different methods of improvement, which are GMM-HMM, XGB-HMM, GMM-HMM+LSTM and XGB-HMM+LSTM, will be discussed later with the…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2021-04-21 Mingwen Liu , Junbang Huo , Yulin Wu , Jinge Wu

A new class of formal latent-variable stochastic processes called hidden quantum models (HQM's) is defined in order to clarify the theoretical foundations of ion channel signal processing. HQM's are based on quantum stochastic processes…

Subcellular Processes · Quantitative Biology 2018-07-30 Alan Paris , George Atia , Azadeh Vosoughi , Stephen Berman

Across most qubit platforms, the readout fidelities do not keep up with the gate fidelities, and new ways to increase the readout fidelities are searched for. For semiconductor spin qubits, a typical qubit-readout signal consists of a…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-09-17 Maria Spethmann , Peter Stano , Daniel Loss

Hidden Markov Models (HMM) model a sequence of observations that are dependent on a hidden (or latent) state that follow a Markov chain. These models are widely used in diverse fields including ecology, speech recognition, and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-09-05 Sidonie Foulon , Thérèse Truong , Anne-Louise Leutenegger , Hervé Perdry