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For obtaining causal inferences that are objective, and therefore have the best chance of revealing scientific truths, carefully designed and executed randomized experiments are generally considered to be the gold standard. Observational…

Applications · Statistics 2008-11-12 Donald B. Rubin

We introduce a novel problem setting for algorithmic contract design, named the principal-MARL contract design problem. This setting extends traditional contract design to account for dynamic and stochastic environments using Markov Games…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2024-08-20 David Molina Concha , Kyeonghyeon Park , Hyun-Rok Lee , Taesik Lee , Chi-Guhn Lee

We develop a novel framework for costly information acquisition in which a decision-maker learns about an unobserved state by choosing a signal distribution, with the cost of information determined by the distribution of noise in the…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-03-27 Peter Achim , Kemal Ozbek

In robust combinatorial optimization, we would like to find a solution that performs well under all realizations of an uncertainty set of possible parameter values. How we model this uncertainty set has a decisive influence on the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-04-30 Marc Goerigk , Mohammad Khosravi

In this review, we present econometric and statistical methods for analyzing randomized experiments. For basic experiments we stress randomization-based inference as opposed to sampling-based inference. In randomization-based inference,…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-26 Susan Athey , Guido Imbens

We study revenue optimization in a repeated auction between a single seller and a single buyer. Traditionally, the design of repeated auctions requires strong modeling assumptions about the bidder behavior, such as it being myopic, infinite…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2019-03-12 Shipra Agrawal , Constantinos Daskalakis , Vahab Mirrokni , Balasubramanian Sivan

We frame dynamic persuasion in a partial observation stochastic control Leader-Follower game with an ergodic criterion. The Receiver controls the dynamics of a multidimensional unobserved state process. Information is provided to the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-06-23 René Aïd , Ofelia Bonesini , Giorgia Callegaro , Luciano Campi

This paper considers the design of observational longitudinal studies with a continuous response and a binary time-invariant exposure, where, typically, the exposure is unbalanced, the mean response in the two groups differs at baseline and…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-27 Xavier Basagana , Donna Spiegelman

Over the last few decades, the nature of scientific research has changed in response to external influences. Firstly, powerful networked computers have become a standard tool. Secondly, society presses ever harder for research to deliver…

Physics Education · Physics 2017-11-27 Philip G Judge , Isabel Lipartito , Roberto Casini

We consider a seller who offers services to a buyer with multi-unit demand. Prior to the realization of demand, the buyer receives a noisy signal of their future demand, and the seller can design contracts based on the reported value of…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-02-13 Dirk Bergemann , Michael C. Wang

A sender seeks to persuade a receiver by presenting evidence obtained through a sequence of private experiments. The sender has complete flexibility in his choice of experiments, contingent on the private experimentation history. The sender…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2023-05-09 Yichuan Lou

This paper studies learning in markets with aggregate uncertainty about whether trade is efficient. A long-lived seller offers prices to buyers, who are short-lived and arrive according to a Poisson process. A hidden state determines…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-01-14 Justus Preusser

This paper considers dynamic moral hazard settings, in which the consequences of the agent's actions are not precisely understood. In a new continuous-time moral hazard model with drift ambiguity, the agent's unobservable action translates…

General Economics · Economics 2021-10-29 Martin Dumav

Bielecki and Rutkowski (2014) introduced and studied a generic nonlinear market model, which includes several risky assets, multiple funding accounts and margin accounts. In this paper, we examine the pricing and hedging of contract both…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-12-09 Tianyang Nie , Marek Rutkowski

Opponent modeling consists in modeling the strategy or preferences of an agent thanks to the data it provides. In the context of automated negotiation and with machine learning, it can result in an advantage so overwhelming that it may…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-01-02 Cédric Buron , Sylvain Ductor , Zahia Guessoum

We study the design of information acquisition games-environments where a designer contracts their action on Sender's choice of experiment and the realized signals about some state-and identify which predictions can be made absent knowledge…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-01-22 Eric Gao , Daniel Luo

We study hypothesis testing over a heterogeneous population of strategic agents with private information. Any single test applied uniformly across the population yields statistical error that is sub-optimal relative to the performance of an…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-10-27 Flora C. Shi , Martin J. Wainwright , Stephen Bates

When funding public goods, resources are often allocated via mechanisms that resemble contests, especially in the case of research grants. A common critique of these contests is that they induce ``too much'' effort from participants. This…

General Economics · Economics 2024-03-13 Kyle R. Myers

To encourage the development of methods with reproducible and robust training behavior, we propose a challenge paradigm where competitors are evaluated directly on the performance of their learning procedures rather than pre-trained agents.…

We study a bilateral trade problem where a principal has private information that is revealed with delay, such as a seller who does not yet know her production cost. Postponing the contracting process incurs a costly delay, while early…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-08-05 Francesco Giovannoni , Toomas Hinnosaar
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