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We address causal reasoning in multivariate time series data generated by stochastic processes. Existing approaches are largely restricted to static settings, ignoring the continuity and emission of variations across time. In contrast, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-29 Mehdi Fatemi , Sindhu Gowda

Although Chain-of-Thought (CoT) has achieved remarkable success in enhancing the reasoning ability of large language models (LLMs), the mechanism of CoT remains a ``black box''. Even if the correct answers can frequently be obtained,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-26 Jiarun Fu , Lizhong Ding , Hao Li , Pengqi Li , Qiuning Wei , Xu Chen

Cause-and-effect reasoning, the attribution of effects to causes, is one of the most powerful and unique skills humans possess. Multiple surveys are mapping out causal attributions as networks, but it is unclear how well these efforts can…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2018-12-17 Daniel Berenberg , James P. Bagrow

We conducted an exploratory study in virtual reality to examine if people can discover causal relations in a realistic sensorimotor context and how such learning is represented at different processing levels (conscious-cognitive vs.…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2026-01-15 Nikolai Bahr , Christoph Zetzsche , Jaime Maldonado , Kerstin Schill

This paper studies the problem of estimating the contributions of features to the prediction of a specific instance by a machine learning model and the overall contribution of a feature to the model. The causal effect of a feature…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-24 Jiuyong Li , Ha Xuan Tran , Thuc Duy Le , Lin Liu , Kui Yu , Jixue Liu

The term "interference" has been used to describe any setting in which one subject's exposure may affect another subject's outcome. We use causal diagrams to distinguish among three causal mechanisms that give rise to interference. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-11 Elizabeth L. Ogburn , Tyler J. VanderWeele

It has been claimed that different types of causes must be considered in biological systems, including top-down as well as same-level and bottom-up causation, thus enabling the top levels to be causally efficacious in their own right. To…

Other Quantitative Biology · Quantitative Biology 2011-11-10 G. Auletta , G. F. R. Ellis , L. Jaeger

Causal inference has numerous real-world applications in many domains, such as health care, marketing, political science, and online advertising. Treatment effect estimation, a fundamental problem in causal inference, has been extensively…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-03 Zhixuan Chu , Jianmin Huang , Ruopeng Li , Wei Chu , Sheng Li

Defeasibility in causal reasoning implies that the causal relationship between cause and effect can be strengthened or weakened. Namely, the causal strength between cause and effect should increase or decrease with the incorporation of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-06-28 Shaobo Cui , Lazar Milikic , Yiyang Feng , Mete Ismayilzada , Debjit Paul , Antoine Bosselut , Boi Faltings

The capability of making explainable inferences regarding physical processes has long been desired. One fundamental physical process is object motion. Inferring what causes the motion of a group of objects can even be a challenging task for…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-07-31 Xiaoyu Ge , Jochen Renz , Hua Hua

This paper establishes the existence of observable footprints that reveal the "causal dispositions" of the object categories appearing in collections of images. We achieve this goal in two steps. First, we take a learning approach to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-01 David Lopez-Paz , Robert Nishihara , Soumith Chintala , Bernhard Schölkopf , Léon Bottou

This paper deals with the problem of estimating the probability that one event was a cause of another in a given scenario. Using structural-semantical definitions of the probabilities of necessary or sufficient causation (or both), we show…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-18 Jin Tian , Judea Pearl

In many applications, there is a need to predict the effect of an intervention on different individuals from data. For example, which customers are persuadable by a product promotion? which patients should be treated with a certain type of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-16 Jiuyong Li , Weijia Zhang , Lin Liu , Kui Yu , Thuc Duy Le , Jixue Liu

Even with impressive advances in automated formal methods, certain problems in system verification and synthesis remain challenging. Examples include the verification of quantitative properties of software involving constraints on timing…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2015-03-19 Sanjit A. Seshia

We consider the problem of estimating a causal effect in a multi-domain setting. The causal effect of interest is confounded by an unobserved confounder and can change between the different domains. We assume that we have access to a proxy…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-30 Manuel Iglesias-Alonso , Felix Schur , Julius von Kügelgen , Jonas Peters

We consider identification and inference about a counterfactual outcome mean when there is unmeasured confounding using tools from proximal causal inference (Miao et al. [2018], Tchetgen Tchetgen et al. [2020]). Proximal causal inference…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-03 Jeffrey Zhang , Wei Li , Wang Miao , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

The book gives a detailed exposition of basic concepts and results of a theory of processes. The presentation of theoretical concepts and results is accompanied with illustrations of their application to solving various problems of…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2010-09-14 Andrew M. Mironov

There is growing interest in the study of causal methods in the Earth sciences. However, most applications have focused on causal discovery, i.e. inferring the causal relationships and causal structure from data. This paper instead examines…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-05-04 Adam Massmann , Pierre Gentine , Jakob Runge

We research the natural causality of the Universe. We find that the equation of causality provides very good results on physics. That is our first endeavour and success in describing a quantitative expression of the law of causality. Hence,…

General Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 Do Minh Chi

In (Beckers, 2025) I introduced nondeterministic causal models as a generalization of Pearl's standard deterministic causal models. I here take advantage of the increased expressivity offered by these models to offer a novel definition of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-03-12 Sander Beckers