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Growing uncertainty from renewable energy integration and distributed energy resources motivate the need for advanced tools to quantify the effect of uncertainty and assess the risks it poses to secure system operation. Polynomial chaos…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-10-16 David Métivier , Marc Vuffray , Sidhant Misra

The presence of uncertainties are inevitable in engineering design and analysis, where failure in understanding their effects might lead to the structural or functional failure of the systems. The role of global sensitivity analysis in this…

Computation · Statistics 2017-10-24 Pramudita Satria Palar , Lavi Rizki Zuhal , Koji Shimoyama , Takeshi Tsuchiya

Polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) are well-suited to quantifying uncertainty in models parameterized by independent random variables. The assumption of independence leads to simple strategies for evaluating PCE coefficients. In contrast,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-05-04 John Jakeman , Fabian Franzelin , Akil Narayan , Michael Eldred , Dirk Plfueger

This paper introduces a new generalized polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) comprising measure-consistent multivariate orthonormal polynomials in dependent random variables. Unlike existing PCEs, whether classical or generalized, no…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-04-17 Sharif Rahman

The large-scale integration of renewable energy sources introduces significant operational uncertainty into power systems. Although Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) provides an efficient tool for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in power…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-24 Le Fang , Wangkun Xu , Fei Teng

Polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) is a classical and widely used surrogate modeling technique in physical simulation and uncertainty quantification. By taking a linear combination of a set of basis polynomials - orthonormal with respect to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-01 Johannes Exenberger , Sascha Ranftl , Robert Peharz

In the field of computer experiments sensitivity analysis aims at quantifying the relative importance of each input parameter (or combinations thereof) of a computational model with respect to the model output uncertainty. Variance…

Computation · Statistics 2014-05-23 Bruno Sudret , Chu Van Mai

Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events motivates the assessment of power system resilience. The random nature of power system failures during these events mandates probabilistic resilience assessment, but…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-03-05 Aidan Gerkis , Xiaozhe Wang

Recently, the use of Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) has been increasing to study the uncertainty in mathematical models for a wide range of applications and several extensions of the original PCE technique have been developed to deal with…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2014-06-23 Maria Navarro , Jeroen Witteveen , Joke Blom

This paper presents a method for performing Uncertainty Quantification in high-dimensional uncertain spaces by combining arbitrary polynomial chaos with a recently proposed scheme for sensitivity enhancement (1). Including available…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-02-09 Nick Pepper , Francesco Montomoli , Kyriakos Kantarakias

Polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) is a powerful surrogate model-based reliability analysis method. Generally, a PCE model with a higher expansion order is usually required to obtain an accurate surrogate model for some complex non-linear…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-05 Xiaohu Zheng , Wen Yao , Yunyang Zhang , Xiaoya Zhang

This paper proposes an adaptive sparse polynomial chaos expansion(PCE)-based method to quantify the impacts of uncertainties on critical clearing time (CCT) that is an important index in transient stability analysis. The proposed method can…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-06-10 Jingyu Liu , Xiaoting Wang , Xiaozhe Wang

Polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) have been used in many real-world engineering applications to quantify how the uncertainty of an output is propagated from inputs. PCEs for models with independent inputs have been extensively explored in…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-06-02 Zhanlin Liu , Youngjun Choe

Polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) are widely used for uncertainty quantification (UQ) tasks, particularly in the applied mathematics community. However, PCE has received comparatively less attention in the statistics literature, and fully…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-30 Kellin N. Rumsey , Devin Francom , Graham C. Gibson , J. Derek Tucker , Gabriel Huerta

Global sensitivity analysis is now established as a powerful approach for determining the key random input parameters that drive the uncertainty of model output predictions. Yet the classical computation of the so-called Sobol' indices is…

Computation · Statistics 2016-06-16 L. Le Gratiet , S. Marelli , B. Sudret

We present a regression technique for data-driven problems based on polynomial chaos expansion (PCE). PCE is a popular technique in the field of uncertainty quantification (UQ), where it is typically used to replace a runnable but expensive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-04-02 E. Torre , S. Marelli , P. Embrechts , B. Sudret

Polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) allow us to propagate uncertainties in the coefficients of differential equations to the statistics of their solutions. Their main advantage is that they replace stochastic equations by systems of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-04-25 H. Cagan Ozen , Guillaume Bal

Polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) is a versatile tool widely used in uncertainty quantification and machine learning, but its successful application depends strongly on the accuracy and reliability of the resulting PCE-based response…

Computation · Statistics 2023-06-14 Paul-Christian Bürkner , Ilja Kröker , Sergey Oladyshkin , Wolfgang Nowak

Software engineers often have to estimate the performance of a software system before having full knowledge of the system parameters, such as workload and operational profile. These uncertain parameters inevitably affect the accuracy of…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2018-01-16 Aldeida Aleti , Catia Trubiani , André van Hoorn , Pooyan Jamshidi

In uncertainty quantification, evaluating sensitivity measures under specific conditions (i.e., conditional Sobol' indices) is essential for systems with parameterized responses, such as spatial fields or varying operating conditions.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-22 Shijie Zhong , Jiangfeng Fu
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