Related papers: Bayesian Analysis of Beta Autoregressive Moving Av…
We propose a parametrization of autoregressive unit roots ARMA models (ARUMA) with partial autocorrelation coefficients to specify the autoregressive and integrated part of the model. We obtain the algebraic properties of the partial…
Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) is a flexible prediction model/machine learning approach that has gained widespread popularity in recent years. As BART becomes more mainstream, there is an increased need for a paper that walks…
Risk aggregation is a popular method used to estimate the sum of a collection of financial assets or events, where each asset or event is modelled as a random variable. Applications, in the financial services industry, include insurance,…
Given a multivariate function taking deterministic and uncertain inputs, we consider the problem of estimating a quantile set: a set of deterministic inputs for which the probability that the output belongs to a specific region remains…
Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) (Chipman et. al., 2010) is a powerful predictive model that often outperforms alternative models at out-of-sample prediction. BART is especially well-suited to settings with unstructured predictor…
This paper proposes the quantile unit-log-symmetric autoregressive moving average (QULS--ARMA) model for bounded time series on the open unit interval $(0,1)$. The model extends the unit-log-symmetric family by introducing a quantile-based…
Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) are a powerful ensemble learning technique for modeling nonlinear regression functions. Although initially BART was proposed for predicting only continuous and binary response variables, over the…
We outline a Bayesian model-averaged meta-analysis for standardized mean differences in order to quantify evidence for both treatment effectiveness $\delta$ and across-study heterogeneity $\tau$. We construct four competing models by…
Autonomous Experimentation Platforms (AEPs) are advanced manufacturing platforms that, under intelligent control, can sequentially search the material design space (MDS) and identify parameters with the desired properties. At the heart of…
Bayesian adaptive designs enable flexible clinical trials by adapting features based on accumulating data. Among these, Bayesian Response-Adaptive Randomization (BRAR) skews patient allocation towards more promising treatments based on…
We consider the problem of optimizing a real-valued continuous function $f$ using a Bayesian approach, where the evaluations of $f$ are chosen sequentially by combining prior information about $f$, which is described by a random process…
Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) is a flexible machine learning algorithm capable of capturing nonlinearities between an outcome and covariates and interaction among covariates. We extend BART to a semiparametric regression…
Multiple imputation provides an effective way to handle missing data. When several possible models are under consideration for the data, the multiple imputation is typically performed under a single-best model selected from the candidate…
Decision trees have found widespread application within the machine learning community due to their flexibility and interpretability. This paper is directed towards learning decision trees from data using a Bayesian approach, which is…
We propose convenient inferential methods for potentially nonstationary multivariate unobserved components models with fractional integration and cointegration. Based on finite-order ARMA approximations in the state space representation,…
Bounded continuous responses -- such as proportions -- arise frequently in diverse scientific fields including climatology, biostatistics, and finance. Beta regression is a widely adopted framework for modeling such data, due to the…
Models for which the likelihood function can be evaluated only up to a parameter-dependent unknown normalising constant, such as Markov random field models, are used widely in computer science, statistical physics, spatial statistics, and…
We introduce a new approach for prudent risk evaluation based on stochastic dominance, which will be called the model aggregation (MA) approach. In contrast to the classic worst-case risk (WR) approach, the MA approach produces not only a…
This paper introduces an integer-valued generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (INGARCH) model based on the novel geometric distribution and discusses some of its properties. The parameter estimation problem of the models…
This paper studies large sample properties of a Bayesian approach to inference about slope parameters $\gamma$ in linear regression models with a structural break. In contrast to the conventional approach to inference about $\gamma$ that…