Related papers: Bayesian Analysis of Beta Autoregressive Moving Av…

We propose a Bayesian elastic net that uses empirical likelihood and develop an efficient tuning of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for posterior sampling. The proposed model relaxes the assumptions on the identity of the error distribution,…

Autoregressive models (ARMs) currently hold state-of-the-art performance in likelihood-based modeling of image and audio data. Generally, neural network based ARMs are designed to allow fast inference, but sampling from these models is…

Benchmarking estimation and its risk evaluation is a practically important issue in small area estimation. While Bayesian methods have been widely adopted in small area estimation, existing benchmarking approaches are often ad-hoc, such as…

Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) is a tree-based machine learning method that has been successfully applied to regression and classification problems. BART assumes regularisation priors on a set of trees that work as weak learners…

The standard approach for studying the periodic ARMA model with coefficients that vary over the seasons is to express it in a vector form. In this paper we introduce an alternative method which views the periodic formulation as a time…

We consider a prior for nonparametric Bayesian estimation which uses finite random series with a random number of terms. The prior is constructed through distributions on the number of basis functions and the associated coefficients. We…

For many decades now, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) has been a popular framework to systematically account for model uncertainty that arises in situations when multiple competing models are available to describe the same or similar…

Maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation, like all Bayesian methods, depends on prior assumptions. These assumptions are often chosen to promote specific features in the recovered estimate. The form of the chosen prior determines the shape of…

Data transformations are essential for broad applicability of parametric regression models. However, for Bayesian analysis, joint inference of the transformation and model parameters typically involves restrictive parametric transformations…

To account for measurement error (ME) in explanatory variables, Bayesian approaches provide a flexible framework, as expert knowledge about unobserved covariates can be incorporated in the prior distributions. However, given the analytic…

We discuss simulation schemes for continuous-time autoregressive moving average (CARMA) processes driven by tempered stable L\'evy noises. CARMA processes are the continuous-time analogue of ARMA processes as well as a generalization of…

The Bell regression model (BRM) is a statistical model that is often used in the analysis of count data that exhibits overdispersion. In this study, we propose a Bayesian analysis of the BRM and offer a new perspective on its application.…

The Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) model is an ensemble method extensively and successfully used in regression tasks due to its consistently strong predictive performance and its ability to quantify uncertainty. BART combines…

Our Bayesian approach to Mendelian Randomisation uses multiple instruments to assess the putative causal effect of an exposure on an outcome. The approach is robust to violations of the (untestable) Exclusion Restriction condition, and…

We study the predictive power of autoregressive moving average models when forecasting demand in two shared computational networks, PlanetLab and Tycoon. Demand in these networks is very volatile, and predictive techniques to plan usage in…

Generating large-scale samples of stationary random fields is of great importance in the fields such as geomaterial modeling and uncertainty quantification. Traditional methodologies based on covariance matrix decomposition have the…

Motivated by the application to German interest rates, we propose a timevarying autoregressive model for short and long term prediction of time series that exhibit a temporary non-stationary behavior but are assumed to mean revert in the…

We address the problem of defining early warning indicators of critical transition. To this purpose, we fit the relevant time series through a class of linear models, known as Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA(p,q)) models. We define two…

Varying coefficient models (VCMs) are widely used for estimating nonlinear regression functions for functional data. Their Bayesian variants using Gaussian process priors on the functional coefficients, however, have received limited…

This work introduces a novel and efficient Bayesian federated learning algorithm, namely, the Federated Averaging stochastic Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (FA-HMC), for parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification. We establish rigorous…