Related papers: Bayesian Analysis of Beta Autoregressive Moving Av…

Generalized autoregressive moving average (GARMA) models are a class of models that was developed for extending the univariate Gaussian ARMA time series model to a flexible observation-driven model for non-Gaussian time series data. This…

In this work we introduce the class of beta autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average models for continuous random variables taking values in the continuous unit interval $(0,1)$. The proposed model accommodates a set of…

Transformed Generalized Autoregressive Moving Average (TGARMA) models were recently proposed to deal with non-additivity, non-normality and heteroscedasticity in real time series data. In this paper, a Bayesian approach is proposed for…

This paper proposes the beta binomial autoregressive moving average model (BBARMA) for modeling quantized amplitude data and bounded count data. The BBARMA model estimates the conditional mean of a beta binomial distributed variable…

Estimating hidden processes from non-linear noisy observations is particularly difficult when the parameters of these processes are not known. This paper adopts a machine learning approach to devise variational Bayesian inference for such…

A new approach for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and selection is proposed, based on the mixture model approach for hypothesis testing in Kaniav et al., 2014. Inheriting from the good properties of this approach, it extends BMA to cases…

We deal with Bayesian inference for Beta autoregressive processes. We restrict our attention to the class of conditionally linear processes. These processes are particularly suitable for forecasting purposes, but are difficult to estimate…

Motivated by the Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Network (ARDSNetwork) ARDS respiratory management (ARMA) trial, we developed a flexible Bayesian machine learning approach to estimate the average causal effect and heterogeneous causal…

The autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model is one of the most important models in time series analysis.We consider the Bayesian estimation of an unknown spectral density in the ARMA model.In the i.i.d. cases, Komaki showed that Bayesian…

We revisit the classical, full-fledged Bayesian model averaging (BMA) paradigm to ensemble pre-trained and/or lightly-finetuned foundation models to enhance the classification performance on image and text data. To make BMA tractable under…

Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models are widely used for analyzing time series data. However, standard likelihood-based inference methodology for ARMA models has avoidable limitations. We show that currently accepted standards for…

Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) is a statistical sum of trees model. It can be considered a Bayesian version of machine learning tree ensemble methods where the individual trees are the base learners. However for data sets where…

Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is an application of Bayesian inference to the problems of model selection, combined estimation and prediction that produces a straightforward model choice criteria and less risky predictions. However, the…

Auto-regressive moving-average (ARMA) models are ubiquitous forecasting tools. Parsimony in such models is highly valued for their interpretability and computational tractability, and as such the identification of model orders remains a…

In Bayesian applications, there is a huge interest in rapid and accurate estimation of the posterior distribution, particularly for high dimensional or hierarchical models. In this article, we propose to use optimization to solve for a…

Estimation in GARMA models has traditionally been carried out under the frequentist approach. To date, Bayesian approaches for such estimation have been relatively limited. In the context of GARMA models for count time series, Bayesian…

We consider the issue of performing accurate small sample inference in beta autoregressive moving average model, which is useful for modeling and forecasting continuous variables that assumes values in the interval $(0,1)$. The inferences…

Estimating the predictive uncertainty of a Bayesian learning model is critical in various decision-making problems, e.g., reinforcement learning, detecting adversarial attack, self-driving car. As the model posterior is almost always…

Two-dimensional (2-D) autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models are commonly applied to describe real-world image data, usually assuming Gaussian or symmetric noise. However, real-world data often present non-Gaussian signals, with…

This paper proposes to use a rather new modelling approach in the realm of solar radiation forecasting. In this work, two forecasting models: Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) and Neural Network (NN) models are combined to form a model…