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This chapter covers different approaches to policy evaluation for assessing the causal effect of a treatment or intervention on an outcome of interest. As an introduction to causal inference, the discussion starts with the experimental…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-10-03 Martin Huber

We study identification and estimation in the Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) with a multivalued treatment variable. We also allow for the inclusion of covariates. We show that without additional information, treatment effects are not…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-07-02 Carolina Caetano , Gregorio Caetano , Juan Carlos Escanciano

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects is an important problem across many domains. In order to accurately estimate such treatment effects, one typically relies on data from observational studies or randomized experiments. Currently,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-28 Tobias Hatt , Jeroen Berrevoets , Alicia Curth , Stefan Feuerriegel , Mihaela van der Schaar

This paper introduces a novel approach for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects of binary treatment in panel data, particularly focusing on short panel data with large cross-sectional data and observed confoundings. In contrast to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-05 Meijia Wang , Ignacio Martinez , P. Richard Hahn

We investigate how to learn treatment effects away from the cutoff in multiple-cutoff regression discontinuity designs. Using a microeconomic model, we demonstrate that the parallel-trend type assumption proposed in the literature is…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-03 Yuta Okamoto , Yuuki Ozaki

Alcohol misuse is a key target of public health strategies aimed at reducing cardiovascular risk. The effect of excessive alcohol consumption on blood pressure may vary systematically with individuals' unobserved propensity to engage in…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-11 Ashish Patel , Francis J DiTraglia , Stephen Burgess

This paper studies non-separable models with a continuous treatment when the dimension of the control variables is high and potentially larger than the effective sample size. We propose a three-step estimation procedure to estimate the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-07 Liangjun Su , Takuya Ura , Yichong Zhang

In observational studies, treatments are typically not randomized and therefore estimated treatment effects may be subject to confounding bias. The instrumental variable (IV) design plays the role of a quasi-experimental handle since the IV…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-08-30 Lan Liu , Wang Miao , Baoluo Sun , James Robins , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Bipartite experiments arise in various fields, in which the treatments are randomized over one set of units, while the outcomes are measured over another separate set of units. However, existing methods often rely on strong model…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-16 Sizhu Lu , Lei Shi , Yue Fang , Wenxin Zhang , Peng Ding

Causal inference, estimating causal effects from observational data, is a fundamental tool in many disciplines. Of particular importance across a variety of domains is the continuous treatment setting, where the variable of intervention has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Christopher Stith , Medha Barath , Vahid Balazadeh , Jesse C. Cresswell , Rahul G. Krishnan

Estimating how a treatment affects units individually, known as heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) estimation, is an essential part of decision-making and policy implementation. The accumulation of large amounts of data in many domains,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-28 Christopher Tran , Elena Zheleva

In recent years, there has been a growing interest in the prediction of individualized treatment effects. While there is a rapidly growing literature on the development of such models, there is little literature on the evaluation of their…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-22 J Hoogland , O Efthimiou , TL Nguyen , TPA Debray

I propose a treatment selection model that introduces unobserved heterogeneity in both choice sets and preferences to evaluate the average effects of a program offer. I show how to exploit the model structure to define parameters capturing…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-09-01 Vishal Kamat

In causal estimation problems, the parameter of interest is often only partially identified, implying that the parameter cannot be recovered exactly, even with infinite data. Here, we study Bayesian inference for partially identified…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-26 Jiajing Zheng , Alexander D'Amour , Alexander Franks

This paper is concerned with the detection of multiple change-points in the joint distribution of independent categorical variables. The procedures introduced rely on model selection and are based on a penalized least-squares criterion.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-01-08 Nathalie Akakpo

Dynamic treatment regimes are sequential decision rules that adapt treatment according to individual time-varying characteristics and outcomes to achieve optimal effects, with applications in precision medicine, personalized…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-24 Yuanshan Gao , Yang Bai , Yifan Cui

In discrete choice panel data, estimation of average effects is crucial for quantifying the effect of covariates, and for policy evaluation and counterfactual analysis. However, in short panels with individual-specific effects, challenges…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-27 Cavit Pakel , Martin Weidner

Decomposing an exposure effect on an outcome into separate natural indirect effects through multiple mediators requires strict assumptions, such as correctly postulating the causal structure of the mediators, and no unmeasured confounding…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-04 Wen Wei Loh , Beatrijs Moerkerke , Tom Loeys , Stijn Vansteelandt

Partial identification approaches are a flexible and robust alternative to standard point-identification approaches in general instrumental variable models. However, this flexibility comes at the cost of a ``curse of cardinality'': the…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-06-30 Florian Gunsilius

In this work, we consider causal inference in various high-dimensional treatment settings, including for single multi-valued treatments and vector treatments with binary or continuous components, when the number of treatments can be…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-26 Patrick Kramer , Edward H. Kennedy , Isaac M. Opper