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We present a dynamical theory of asset price bubbles that exhibits the appearance of bubbles and their subsequent crashes. We show that when speculative trends dominate over fundamental beliefs, bubbles form, leading to the growth of asset…

adap-org · Physics 2008-02-03 Michael Youssefmir , Bernardo Huberman , Tad Hogg

Collusion occurs when multiple malicious participants of a distributed protocol work together to sabotage or spy on honest participants. Decentralized protocols often rely on a subset of participants called workers for critical operations.…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2022-06-16 Matthieu Bettinger , Lucas Barbero , Omar Hasan

This paper has been withdrawn by the author, due a crucial error in the proof of the main Theorem (Sec. 3). In particular, in deriving the bound on the probability of error (Eq. 10) the contribution of those pairs (x', y') that are not…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2009-09-29 Amin Zia

Many real-world networks are known to exhibit facts that counter our knowledge prescribed by the theories on network creation and communication patterns. A common prerequisite in network analysis is that information on nodes and links will…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-04-03 Guy Kelman , Eran Manes , Marco Lamieri , David Breé

The scale and terms of aggregate borrowing in an economy depend on the manner in which wealth is distributed across potential creditors with heterogeneous beliefs about the future. This distribution evolves over time as uncertainty is…

General Economics · Economics 2023-04-10 Bikramaditya Datta , Rajiv Sethi

We derive a novel version of information-disturbance theorems for mutually unbiased observables. We show that the information gain by Eve inevitably makes the outcomes by Bob in the conjugate basis not only erroneous but random.

Quantum Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 Takayuki Miyadera , Hideki Imai

Two fundamental requirements for the deployment of machine learning models in safety-critical systems are to be able to detect out-of-distribution (OOD) data correctly and to be able to explain the prediction of the model. Although…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-13 Nawid Keshtmand , Raul Santos-Rodriguez , Jonathan Lawry

The Holant theorem is a powerful tool for studying the computational complexity of counting problems in the Holant framework. Due to the great expressiveness of the Holant framework, a converse to the Holant theorem would itself be a very…

Discrete Mathematics · Computer Science 2025-09-17 Ben Young

Marginal expected shortfall is unquestionably one of the most popular systemic risk measures. Studying its extreme behaviour is particularly relevant for risk protection against severe global financial market downturns. In this context,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-04-18 Simone A. Padoan , Stefano Rizzelli , Matteo Schiavone

Class invariants -- consistency constraints preserved by every operation on objects of a given type -- are fundamental to building, understanding and verifying object-oriented programs. For verification, however, they raise difficulties,…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2024-01-23 Bertrand Meyer , Alisa Arkadova , Alexander Kogtenkov

We confirm the eventual evasiveness of several classes of monotone graph properties under widely accepted number theoretic hypotheses. In particular we show that Chowla's conjecture on Dirichlet primes implies that (a) for any graph $H$,…

Computational Complexity · Computer Science 2010-02-03 Laszlo Babai , Anandam Banerjee , Raghav Kulkarni , Vipul Naik

This paper has been withdrawn because Proposition 2.2 (c) is false. This invalids the main results of section 2 and 3. We thank A. Canonaco for pointing us the error.

Algebraic Geometry · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Carlos Sancho de Salas , Fernando Sancho de Salas

Afriat's Theorem (1967) states that a dataset can be thought of as being generated by a consumer maximizing a continuous and increasing utility function if and only if it is free of revealed preference cycles containing a strict relation.…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-05-15 Paweł Dziewulski , Joshua Lanier , John K. -H. Quah

We prove an analogue of the classical ballot theorem that holds for any random walk in the range of attraction of the normal distribution. Our result is best possible: we exhibit examples demonstrating that if any of our hypotheses are…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-02-28 L. Addario-Berry , B. A. Reed

We study the dynamics of the linear and non-linear serial dependencies in financial time series in a rolling window framework. In particular, we focus on the detection of episodes of statistically significant two- and three-point…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-01-10 Milan Žukovič

We consider long-range dependent data. It is shown that the bootstrapped empirical process of these data converges to a semi-degenerate limit. The random part of this limit is always Gaussian. Thus the bootstrap might fail when the original…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-01-07 Johannes Tewes

Managing a portfolio to a risk model can tilt the portfolio toward weaknesses of the model. As a result, the optimized portfolio acquires downside exposure to uncertainty in the model itself, what we call "second order risk." We propose a…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2009-08-19 Peter G. Shepard

We study the dependence control theory, with a focus on the tail property and dependence transformability of wireless channel capacity, respectively, from the perspective of an information theoretic model of the wireless channel and from…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2019-12-24 Fengyou Sun

The conservative wealth-exchange process derived from trade interactions is modeled as a multiplicative stochastic transference of value, where each interaction multiplies the wealth of the poorest of the two intervening agents by a random…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-05-30 Cristian F. Moukarzel

Applications from finance to epidemiology and cyber-security require accurate forecasts of dynamic phenomena, which are often only partially observed. We demonstrate that a system's predictability degrades as a function of temporal…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2020-01-22 Andrés Abeliuk , Zhishen Huang , Emilio Ferrara , Kristina Lerman
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