Related papers: Multi-index importance sampling for McKean--Vlasov…
In this paper, we implement a weak Milstein Scheme to simulate low-dimensional stochastic differential equations (SDEs). We prove that combining the antithetic multilevel Monte-Carlo (MLMC) estimator introduced by Giles and Szpruch with the…
Importance sampling is a Monte Carlo method which designs estimators of expectations under a target distribution using weighted samples from a proposal distribution. When the target distribution is complex, such as multimodal distributions…
Importance sampling has become an important tool for the computation of tail-based risk measures. Since such quantities are often determined mainly by rare events standard Monte Carlo can be inefficient and importance sampling provides a…
Bayesian inference for doubly-intractable pairwise exponential graphical models typically involves variations of the exchange algorithm or approximate Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers. However, existing methods for both classes of…
Multiple Importance Sampling (MIS) methods approximate moments of complicated distributions by drawing samples from a set of proposal distributions. Several ways to compute the importance weights assigned to each sample have been recently…
We study statistical model checking of continuous-time stochastic hybrid systems. The challenge in applying statistical model checking to these systems is that one cannot simulate such systems exactly. We employ the multilevel Monte Carlo…
Underdamped Langevin Monte Carlo (ULMC) is an algorithm used to sample from unnormalized densities by leveraging the momentum of a particle moving in a potential well. We provide a novel analysis of ULMC, motivated by two central questions:…
We present a new Monte Carlo methodology for the accurate estimation of the distribution of the sum of dependent log-normal random variables. The methodology delivers statistically unbiased estimators for three distributional quantities of…
Statistical signal processing applications usually require the estimation of some parameters of interest given a set of observed data. These estimates are typically obtained either by solving a multi-variate optimization problem, as in the…
We present Doubly Robust Monte Carlo Tree Search (DR-MCTS), a novel algorithm that integrates Doubly Robust (DR) off-policy estimation into Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) to enhance sample efficiency and decision quality in complex…
In this paper, we investigate the use of multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods for estimating the expectation of discretized random fields. Specifically, we consider a setting in which the input and output vectors of numerical simulators…
We explore past and recent developments in rare-event probability estimation with a particular focus on a novel Monte Carlo technique Empirical Likelihood Maximization (ELM). This is a versatile method that involves sampling from a sequence…
In the first part of this paper we study approximations of trajectories of Piecewise Deter-ministic Processes (PDP) when the flow is not explicit by the thinning method. We also establish a strong error estimate for PDPs as well as a weak…
We consider systems of slow--fast diffusions with small noise in the slow component. We construct provably logarithmic asymptotically optimal importance schemes for the estimation of rare events based on the moderate deviations principle.…
Gaussian random fields play an important role in many areas of science and engineering. In practice, they are often simulated by sampling from a high-dimensional multivariate normal distribution, which arises from the discretisation of a…
The Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method has proven to be an effective variance-reduction statistical method for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in Partial Differential Equation (PDE) models, combining model computations at different levels…
In parameter estimation problems one computes a posterior distribution over uncertain parameters defined jointly by a prior distribution, a model, and noisy data. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is often used for the numerical solution of…
Large deviation theory has provided important clues for the choice of importance sampling measures for Monte Carlo evaluation of exceedance probabilities. However, Glasserman and Wang [Ann. Appl. Probab. 7 (1997) 731--746] have given…
Doubly intractable models are encountered in a number of fields, e.g. social networks, ecology and epidemiology. Inference for such models requires the evaluation of a likelihood function, whose normalising factor depends on the model…
Multi-distribution learning (MDL), which seeks to learn a shared model that minimizes the worst-case risk across $k$ distinct data distributions, has emerged as a unified framework in response to the evolving demand for robustness,…