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Counterfactual thinking is a crucial yet challenging topic for artificial intelligence to learn knowledge from data and ultimately improve performance for new scenarios. Many research works, including the Potential Outcome Model (POM) and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Mingyu Kang , Duxin Chen , Ziyuan Pu , Jianxi Gao , Wenwu Yu

Can stated preferences inform counterfactual analyses of actual choice? This research proposes a novel approach to researchers who have access to both stated choices in hypothetical scenarios and actual choices, matched or unmatched. The…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-18 Romuald Meango , Marc Henry , Ismael Mourifie

We tackle the problem of computing counterfactual explanations -- minimal changes to the features that flip an undesirable model prediction. We propose a solution to this question for linear Support Vector Machine (SVMs) models. Moreover,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-16 Sebastian Salazar , Samuel Denton , Ansaf Salleb-Aouissi

Machine learning models based on temporal point processes are the state of the art in a wide variety of applications involving discrete events in continuous time. However, these models lack the ability to answer counterfactual questions,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-23 Kimia Noorbakhsh , Manuel Gomez Rodriguez

Personalized decision making requires the knowledge of potential outcomes under different treatments, and confidence intervals about the potential outcomes further enrich this decision-making process and improve its reliability in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-22 Zonghao Chen , Ruocheng Guo , Jean-François Ton , Yang Liu

Comparing counterfactual distributions can provide more nuanced and valuable measures for causal effects, going beyond typical summary statistics such as averages. In this work, we consider characterizing causal effects via distributional…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-05 Kwangho Kim , Jisu Kim , Edward H. Kennedy

Causal effects are often characterized with averages, which can give an incomplete picture of the underlying counterfactual distributions. Here we consider estimating the entire counterfactual density and generic functionals thereof. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-25 Edward H. Kennedy , Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Larry Wasserman

Counterfactual explanations are widely used to interpret machine learning predictions by identifying minimal changes to input features that would alter a model's decision. However, most existing counterfactual methods have not been tested…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Leonidas Christodoulou , Chang Sun

Recent studies have highlighted the benefits of generating multiple synthetic datasets for supervised learning, from increased accuracy to more effective model selection and uncertainty estimation. These benefits have clear empirical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-28 Ossi Räisä , Antti Honkela

We employ uncertain parametric CTMCs with parametric transition rates and a prior on the parameter values. The prior encodes uncertainty about the actual transition rates, while the parameters allow dependencies between transition rates.…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2022-12-08 Thom S. Badings , Nils Jansen , Sebastian Junges , Marielle Stoelinga , Matthias Volk

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) attempts to predict the performance of counterfactual policies using log data from a different policy. We extend its applicability by developing an OPE method for a class of both full support and deficient…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-06 Yusuke Narita , Kyohei Okumura , Akihiro Shimizu , Kohei Yata

While counterfactual data augmentation offers a promising step towards robust generalization in natural language processing, producing a set of counterfactuals that offer valuable inductive bias for models remains a challenge. Most existing…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-10-25 Phillip Howard , Gadi Singer , Vasudev Lal , Yejin Choi , Swabha Swayamdipta

A common approach to synthetic data is to sample from a fitted model. We show that under general assumptions, this approach results in a sample with inefficient estimators and whose joint distribution is inconsistent with the true…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-18 Jordan Awan , Zhanrui Cai

Target-oriented multimodal sentiment classification seeks to predict sentiment polarity for specific targets from image-text pairs. While existing works achieve competitive performance, they often over-rely on textual content and fail to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-12 Zhiyue Liu , Fanrong Ma , Xin Ling

Counterfactual generation lies at the core of various machine learning tasks, including image translation and controllable text generation. This generation process usually requires the identification of the disentangled latent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-26 Hanqi Yan , Lingjing Kong , Lin Gui , Yuejie Chi , Eric Xing , Yulan He , Kun Zhang

In this paper, we propose a novel method for causal inference within the framework of counterfactual and synthetic control. Matching forward the generalized synthetic control method, our instrumented principal component analysis method…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-09-17 Cong Wang

Can stated preferences help in counterfactual analyses of actual choice? This research proposes a novel approach to researchers who have access to both stated choices in hypothetical scenarios and actual choices. The key idea is to use…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-07-27 Romuald Meango

Counterfactual reasoning from logged data has become increasingly important for many applications such as web advertising or healthcare. In this paper, we address the problem of learning stochastic policies with continuous actions from the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-24 Houssam Zenati , Alberto Bietti , Matthieu Martin , Eustache Diemert , Pierre Gaillard , Julien Mairal

Counterfactuals have become a popular technique nowadays for interacting with black-box machine learning models and understanding how to change a particular instance to obtain a desired outcome from the model. However, most existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-29 Philip Naumann , Eirini Ntoutsi

Counterfactual explanations for machine learning models are used to find minimal interventions to the feature values such that the model changes the prediction to a different output or a target output. A valid counterfactual explanation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-23 Shravan Kumar Sajja , Sumanta Mukherjee , Satyam Dwivedi