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Surprisal theory posits that the processing difficulty of a word is determined by its predictability in context, offering a potential link between human sentence processing and next-word predictions from language models. While language…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-18 William Timkey , Brian Dillon , Tal Linzen

The effect of surprisal on processing difficulty has been a central topic of investigation in psycholinguistics. Here, we use eyetracking data to examine three language processing regimes that are common in daily life but have not been…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-11 Keren Gruteke Klein , Yoav Meiri , Omer Shubi , Yevgeni Berzak

By positing a relationship between naturalistic reading times and information-theoretic surprisal, surprisal theory (Hale, 2001; Levy, 2008) provides a natural interface between language models and psycholinguistic models. This paper…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-06-25 Yiding Hao , Simon Mendelsohn , Rachel Sterneck , Randi Martinez , Robert Frank

Over the past two decades, numerous studies have demonstrated how less predictable (i.e., higher surprisal) words take more time to read. In general, these studies have implicitly assumed the reading process is purely responsive: Readers…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-07-17 Tiago Pimentel , Clara Meister , Ethan G. Wilcox , Roger Levy , Ryan Cotterell

Surprisal theory links human processing effort to the predictability of an upcoming linguistic unit, but empirical work often leaves the notion of a unit underspecified. In practice, experimental stimuli are segmented into linguistically…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-01 Samuel Kiegeland , Vésteinn Snæbjarnarson , Tim Vieira , Ryan Cotterell

Human reading behavior is sensitive to surprisal: more predictable words tend to be read faster. Unexpectedly, this applies not only to the surprisal of the word that is currently being read, but also to the surprisal of upcoming…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2018-10-30 Marten van Schijndel , Tal Linzen

We present a new perspective on how readers integrate context during real-time language comprehension. Our proposals build on surprisal theory, which posits that the processing effort of a linguistic unit (e.g., a word) is an affine…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-26 Andreas Opedal , Eleanor Chodroff , Ryan Cotterell , Ethan Gotlieb Wilcox

Surprisal theory posits that the cognitive effort required to comprehend a word is determined by its contextual predictability, quantified as surprisal. Traditionally, surprisal theory treats words as distinct entities, overlooking any…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-24 Clara Meister , Mario Giulianelli , Tiago Pimentel

Surprisal theory hypothesizes that the difficulty of human sentence processing increases linearly with surprisal, the negative log-probability of a word given its context. Computational psycholinguistics has tested this hypothesis using…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Ryo Yoshida , Shinnosuke Isono , Taiga Someya , Yohei Oseki , Tatsuki Kuribayashi

How predictable a word is can be quantified in two ways: using human responses to the cloze task or using probabilities from language models (LMs).When used as predictors of processing effort, LM probabilities outperform probabilities…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Sathvik Nair , Byung-Doh Oh

A wide body of evidence shows that human language processing difficulty is predicted by the information-theoretic measure surprisal, a word's negative log probability in context. However, it is still unclear how to best estimate these…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-07-04 Tong Liu , Iza Škrjanec , Vera Demberg

Humans exhibit garden path effects: When reading sentences that are temporarily structurally ambiguous, they slow down when the structure is disambiguated in favor of the less preferred alternative. Surprisal theory (Hale, 2001; Levy,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-08-03 Suhas Arehalli , Brian Dillon , Tal Linzen

To date, most investigations on surprisal and entropy effects in reading have been conducted on the group level, disregarding individual differences. In this work, we revisit the predictive power of surprisal and entropy measures estimated…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-08-05 Patrick Haller , Lena S. Bolliger , Lena A. Jäger

Probing has shown that language model representations encode rich linguistic information, but it remains unclear whether they also capture cognitive signals about human processing. In this work, we probe language model representations for…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-22 Eleftheria Tsipidi , Samuel Kiegeland , Francesco Ignazio Re , Tianyang Xu , Mario Giulianelli , Karolina Stanczak , Ryan Cotterell

Surprisal theory has provided a unifying framework for understanding many phenomena in sentence processing (Hale, 2001; Levy, 2008a), positing that a word's conditional probability given all prior context fully determines processing…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-03-16 Adam Goodkind , Klinton Bicknell

Prediction in language has traditionally been studied using simple designs in which neural responses to expected and unexpected words are compared in a categorical fashion. However, these designs have been contested as being `prediction…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2019-09-11 Micha Heilbron , Benedikt Ehinger , Peter Hagoort , Floris P. de Lange

Recent psycholinguistic studies have drawn conflicting conclusions about the relationship between the quality of a language model and the ability of its surprisal estimates to predict human reading times, which has been speculated to be due…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Byung-Doh Oh , William Schuler

Isolated word meanings are inherently uncertain. This uncertainty reduces when they are combined and anchored in context. We propose that grammar compresses meaning uncertainty cross-linguistically, which is reflected in brain and…

In psycholinguistic modeling, surprisal from larger pre-trained language models has been shown to be a poorer predictor of naturalistic human reading times. However, it has been speculated that this may be due to data leakage that caused…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-03 Byung-Doh Oh , Hongao Zhu , William Schuler

There has been considerable interest in using surprisal from Transformer-based language models (LMs) as predictors of human sentence processing difficulty. Recent work has observed an inverse scaling relationship between Transformers'…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Yi-Chien Lin , William Schuler
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