Related papers: Cascading Failures in the Global Financial System:…
Different from the direct contact in epidemics spread, overload failures propagate through hidden functional dependencies. Many studies focused on the critical conditions and catastrophic consequences of cascading failures. However, to…
We introduce a probabilistic framework that represents stylized banking networks with the aim of predicting the size of contagion events. Most previous work on random financial networks assumes independent connections between banks, whereas…
Over the last two decades, financial systems have been studied and analysed from the perspective of complex networks, where the nodes and edges in the network represent the various financial components and the strengths of correlations…
Modern urban resilience is threatened by cascading failures in multimodal transport networks, where localized shocks trigger widespread paralysis. Existing models, limited by their focus on pairwise interactions, often underestimate this…
There is empirical evidence from a range of disciplines that as the connectivity of a network increases, we observe an increase in the average fitness of the system. But at the same time, there is an increase in the proportion of…
This paper characterises dynamic linkages arising from shocks with heterogeneous degrees of persistence. Using frequency domain techniques, we introduce measures that identify smoothly varying links of a transitory and persistent nature.…
For centuries, national economies created wealth by engaging in international trade and production. The resulting international supply networks not only increase wealth for countries, but also create systemic risk: economic shocks,…
Credit and liquidity risks represent main channels of financial contagion for interbank lending markets. On one hand, banks face potential losses whenever their counterparties are under distress and thus unable to fulfill their obligations.…
Why are human societies unstable? Theories based on the observation of recurring patterns in historical data indicate that economic inequality, as well as social factors are key drivers. So far, models of this phenomenon are more…
The collapse of interdependent networks, as well as similar avalanche phenomena, is driven by cascading failures. At the critical point, the cascade begins as a critical branching process, where each failing node (element) triggers, on…
Financial and economic history is strewn with bubbles and crashes, booms and busts, crises and upheavals of all sorts. Understanding the origin of these events is arguably one of the most important problems in economic theory. In this…
This study extends the Gai-Kapadia framework, originally developed for interbank contagion, to assess systemic risk and default cascades in global equity markets. We analyze a 30 asset network comprising Brazilian and developed market…
I examine global recessions as a cascade phenomenon. In other words, how recessions arising in one or more countries might percolate across a network of connected economies. A heterogeneous agent based model is set up in which the agents…
The global balance index is used in the network literature to quantify how balanced a signed network is. In this paper we show that the global balance index of financial correlation networks can be used as a systemic risk measure. We define…
Achieving safety in autonomous multi-agent systems, particularly in time-critical tasks like rendezvous, is a critical challenge. In this paper, we propose a distributionally robust risk framework for analyzing cascading failures in…
Localized perturbations in a real-world network have the potential to trigger cascade failures at the whole system level, hindering its operations and functions. Standard approaches analytically tackling this problem are mostly based either…
Modern financial networks exhibit a high degree of interconnectedness and determining the causes of instability and contagion in financial networks is necessary to inform policy and avoid future financial collapse. In the American Economic…
The global crisis of 2008 provoked a heightened interest among scientists to study the phenomenon, its propagation and negative consequences. The process of modelling the spread of a virus is commonly used in epidemiology. Conceptually, the…
We report a study of a stylized banking cascade model investigating systemic risk caused by counter party failure using liabilities and assets to define banks' balance sheet. In our stylized system, banks can be in two states: normally…
We develop a framework for studying and quantifying the risk of cascading failures in time-delay consensus networks, motivated by a team of agents attempting temporal rendezvous under stochastic disturbances and communication delays. To…