Related papers: Large Deviations and Metastability Analysis for He…
In this paper, we introduce a mathematical apparatus that is relevant for understanding a dynamical system with small random perturbations and coupled with the so-called transmutation process -- where the latter jumps from one mode to…
In this paper we develop the large deviations principle and a rigorous mathematical framework for asymptotically efficient importance sampling schemes for general, fully dependent systems of stochastic differential equations of slow and…
Heavy-tailed distributions are frequently used to enhance the robustness of regression and classification methods to outliers in output space. Often, however, we are confronted with "outliers" in input space, which are isolated observations…
Extreme events occur across the natural, engineering, and socioeconomic sciences, where rare but high-impact episodes can lead to disproportionate consequences that pose major challenges for prediction and risk management. Existing studies…
We prove a large deviation principle for stochastic differential equations driven by semimartingales, with additive controls. Conditions are given in terms of characteristics of driven semimartingales, so that if the noise-control pairs…
Long-tailed classification poses a challenge due to its heavy imbalance in class probabilities and tail-sensitivity risks with asymmetric misprediction costs. Recent attempts have used re-balancing loss and ensemble methods, but they are…
This paper is devoted to proving the small noise asymptotic behaviour, particularly large deviation principle, for multi-scale stochastic dynamical systems with fully local monotone coefficients driven by multiplicative noise. The main…
Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) and its variants enable modern artificial intelligence. However, theoretical understanding lags far behind their empirical success. It is widely believed that SGD has a curious ability to avoid sharp local…
We present an efficient approach, based on a number-conditioned master equation, for large-deviation analysis in mesoscopic transports. Beyond the conventional full-counting-statistics study, the large-deviation approach encodes complete…
Long-tail motion forecasting is a core challenge for autonomous driving, where rare yet safety-critical events-such as abrupt maneuvers and dense multi-agent interactions-dominate real-world risk. Existing approaches struggle in these…
The incidence of rare events in fast-slow systems is investigated via analysis of the large deviation principle (LDP) that characterizes the likelihood and pathway of large fluctuations of the slow variables away from their mean behavior --…
We consider a finite collection of independent Hermitian heavy-tailed random matrices of growing dimension. Our model includes the L\'evy matrices proposed by Bouchaud and Cizeau, as well as sparse random matrices with O(1) non-zero entries…
Recent theoretical studies have shown that heavy-tails can emerge in stochastic optimization due to `multiplicative noise', even under surprisingly simple settings, such as linear regression with Gaussian data. While these studies have…
We prove a large deviations principle for the class of multidimensional affine stochastic volatility models considered in (Gourieroux, C. and Sufana, R., J. Bus. Econ. Stat., 28(3), 2010), where the volatility matrix is modelled by a…
We analyze the macroscopic behavior of multi-populations randomly connected neural networks with interaction delays. Similar to cases occurring in spin glasses, we show that the sequences of empirical measures satisfy a large deviation…
Decoupling representation learning and classifier learning has been shown to be effective in classification with long-tailed data. There are two main ingredients in constructing a decoupled learning scheme; 1) how to train the feature…
We prove pathwise large-deviation principles of switching Markov processes by exploiting the connection to associated Hamilton-Jacobi equations, following Jin Feng's and Thomas Kurtz's method. In the limit that we consider, we show how the…
We examine a distributional fixed-point equation related to a multi-type branching process that is key in the cluster sizes analysis of multivariate heavy-tailed Hawkes processes. Specifically, we explore the tail behavior of its solution…
We present a systematic analysis of stochastic processes conditioned on an empirical measure $Q_T$ defined in a time interval $[0,T]$ for large $T$. We build our analysis starting from a discrete time Markov chain. Results for a continuous…
We consider potential type dynamical systems in finite dimensions with two meta-stable states. They are subject to two sources of perturbation: a slow external periodic perturbation of period $T$ and a small Gaussian random perturbation of…