Related papers: Wishful Thinking is Risky Thinking
When making decisions under risk, people often exhibit behaviors that classical economic theories cannot explain. Newer models that attempt to account for these irrational behaviors often lack neuroscience bases and require the introduction…
This paper shows that the fuzzy temporal logic can model figures of thought to describe decision-making behaviors. In order to exemplify, some economic behaviors observed experimentally were modeled from problems of choice containing time,…
This paper develops a model of reference-dependent assessment of subjective beliefs in which loss-averse people optimally choose the expectation as the reference point to balance the current felicity from the optimistic anticipation and the…
How can we draw trustworthy scientific conclusions? One criterion is that a study can be replicated by independent teams. While replication is critically important, it is arguably insufficient. If a study is biased for some reason and other…
Model uncertainty has been one prominent issue both in the theory of risk measures and in practice such as financial risk management and regulation. Motivated by this observation, in this paper, we take a new perspective to describe the…
This paper advocates the usefulness of new theories of uncertainty for the purpose of modeling some facets of uncertain knowledge, especially vagueness, in AI. It can be viewed as a partial reply to Cheeseman's (among others) defense of…
Deliberation plays an important role in the design of rational agents embedded in the real-world. In particular, deliberation leads to the formation of intentions, i.e., plans of action that the agent is committed to achieving. In this…
Predicting the future is an important component of decision making. In most situations, however, there is not enough information to make accurate predictions. In this paper, we develop a theory of causal reasoning for predictive inference…
Recovering and distinguishing between the strict-preference, indifference and/or indecisiveness parts of a decision maker's preferences is a challenging task but also important for testing theory and conducting welfare analysis. This paper…
Pursuing a scientific idea is often justified by the promise associated with it. Philosophers of science have proposed a variety of approaches to such promise, including more specific indicators. Economic models in particular emphasise the…
All people have to make risky decisions in everyday life. And we do not know how true they are. But is it possible to mathematically assess the correctness of our choice? This article discusses the model of decision making under risk on the…
Within the transferable belief model, positive basic belief masses can be allocated to the empty set, leading to unnormalized belief functions. The nature of these unnormalized beliefs is analyzed.
We construct the belief function that quantifies the agent, beliefs about which event of Q will occurred when he knows that the event is selected by a chance set-up and that the probability function associated to the chance set up is only…
We believe, in the sense of supporting ideas and considering them correct while dismissing doubts about them. We take sides about ideas and theories as if that was the right thing to do. And yet, from a rational point of view, this type of…
Decision analysis deals with modeling and enhancing decision processes. A principal challenge in improving behavior is in obtaining a transparent description of existing behavior in the first place. In this paper, we develop an expressive,…
In this paper, we consider one aspect of the problem of applying decision theory to the design of agents that learn how to make decisions under uncertainty. This aspect concerns how an agent can estimate probabilities for the possible…
Causality is a fundamental part of the scientific endeavour to understand the world. Unfortunately, causality is still taboo in much of psychology and social science. Motivated by a growing number of recommendations for the importance of…
Clinical risk prediction is a valuable tool for guiding healthcare interventions toward those most likely to benefit. Yet, evaluating the pairing of a risk prediction model with an intervention using randomized controlled trials presents…
This paper examines a heterogeneous beliefs model in which there is a process that is only partially observed by the agents. The economy contains a risky asset producing dividends continuously in time. The dividends are observed by the…
The Improbability Scale (IS) is proposed as a way of communicating to the general public the improbability (and by implication, the probability) of events predicted as the result of scientific research. Through the use of the Improbability…