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We study the problem of online learning in predictive control of an unknown linear dynamical system with time varying cost functions which are unknown apriori. Specifically, we study the online learning problem where the control algorithm…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-01 Deepan Muthirayan , Jianjun Yuan , Dileep Kalathil , Pramod P. Khargonekar

We present new Bayesian methodology for consumer sales forecasting. With a focus on multi-step ahead forecasting of daily sales of many supermarket items, we adapt dynamic count mixture models to forecast individual customer transactions,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-07 Lindsay R. Berry , Paul Helman , Mike West

There is a growing cross-disciplinary effort in the broad domain of optimization and learning with streams of data, applied to settings where traditional batch optimization techniques cannot produce solutions at time scales that match the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-11-29 Emiliano Dall'Anese , Andrea Simonetto , Stephen Becker , Liam Madden

Promotions are becoming more important and prevalent in e-commerce to attract customers and boost sales, leading to frequent changes of occasions, which drives users to behave differently. In such situations, most existing Click-Through…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-31 Xiaofeng Pan , Yibin Shen , Jing Zhang , Xu He , Yang Huang , Hong Wen , Chengjun Mao , Bo Cao

Logistical demand-supply forecasting that evaluates the alignment between projected supply and anticipated demand, is essential for the efficiency and quality of on-demand food delivery platforms and serves as a key indicator for scheduling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Jiacheng Shi , Haibin Wei , Jiang Wang , Xiaowei Xu , Longzhi Du , Taixu Jiang

We consider the problem of neural network training in a time-varying context. Machine learning algorithms have excelled in problems that do not change over time. However, problems encountered in financial markets are often time-varying. We…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-01-25 Steven Y. K. Wong , Jennifer Chan , Lamiae Azizi , Richard Y. D. Xu

Data in modern economic and financial applications often arrive as a stream, requiring models and inference to be updated in real time -- yet most semiparametric methods remain batch-based and computationally impractical in large-scale…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-10 Xiaohong Chen , Elie Tamer , Qingsong Yao

Since exchange economy considerably varies in the market assets, asset prices have become an attractive research area for investigating and modeling ambiguous and uncertain information in today markets. This paper proposes a new generative…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-03-28 Farouq Abdulaziz Masoudy

In the context of developing nations like India, traditional business to business (B2B) commerce heavily relies on the establishment of robust relationships, trust, and credit arrangements between buyers and sellers. Consequently, ecommerce…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-13 Tuhin Subhra De , Pranjal Singh , Alok Patel

The prompt online detection of abrupt changes in image data is essential for timely decision-making in broad applications, from video surveillance to manufacturing quality control. Existing methods, however, face three key challenges.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-15 Xiaojun Zheng , Simon Mak

In Online Continual Learning (OCL) a learning system receives a stream of data and sequentially performs prediction and training steps. Important challenges in OCL are concerned with automatic adaptation to the particular non-stationary…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-11 Michalis K. Titsias , Alexandre Galashov , Amal Rannen-Triki , Razvan Pascanu , Yee Whye Teh , Jorg Bornschein

When an item goes out of stock, sales transaction data no longer reflect the original customer demand, since some customers leave with no purchase while others substitute alternative products for the one that was out of stock. Here we…

Applications · Statistics 2016-01-15 Benjamin Letham , Lydia M. Letham , Cynthia Rudin

We study learning control in an online reset-free lifelong learning scenario, where mistakes can compound catastrophically into the future and the underlying dynamics of the environment may change. Traditional model-free policy learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-30 Kevin Lu , Igor Mordatch , Pieter Abbeel

We study how to unwind stochastic order flow with minimal transaction costs. Stochastic order flow arises, e.g., in the central risk book (CRB), a centralized trading desk that aggregates order flows within a financial institution. The desk…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2025-11-14 Marcel Nutz , Kevin Webster , Long Zhao

In standardized educational testing, test items are reused in multiple test administrations. To ensure the validity of test scores, the psychometric properties of items should remain unchanged over time. In this paper, we consider the…

Applications · Statistics 2021-10-26 Yunxiao Chen , Yi-Hsuan Lee , Xiaoou Li

We conduct modeling of the price dynamics following order flow imbalance in market microstructure and apply the model to the analysis of Chinese CSI 300 Index Futures. There are three findings. The first is that the order flow imbalance is…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-05-26 Chen Hu , Kouxiao Zhang

Changes, planned or unexpected, are common during the execution of real-life processes. Detecting these changes is a must for optimizing the performance of organizations running such processes. Most of the algorithms present in the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Victor Gallego-Fontenla , Juan C. Vidal , Manuel Lama

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) aims to learn decision policies from a fixed batch of logged transitions, without additional environment interaction. Despite remarkable empirical progress, offline RL remains fragile under distribution…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-16 Debashis Chatterjee

High dimensional piecewise stationary graphical models represent a versatile class for modelling time varying networks arising in diverse application areas, including biology, economics, and social sciences. There has been recent work in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-21 Hossein Keshavarz , George Michailidis , Yves Atchade

Machine learning models often encounter distribution shifts when deployed in the real world. In this paper, we focus on adaptation to label distribution shift in the online setting, where the test-time label distribution is continually…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-06 Ruihan Wu , Chuan Guo , Yi Su , Kilian Q. Weinberger