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This paper addresses the challenge of model uncertainty in quantitative finance, where decisions in portfolio allocation, derivative pricing, and risk management rely on estimating stochastic models from limited data. In practice, the…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-06-10 Hans Buehler , Blanka Horvath , Yannick Limmer , Thorsten Schmidt

Missing data arises when certain values are not recorded or observed for variables of interest. However, most of the statistical theory assume complete data availability. To address incomplete databases, one approach is to fill the gaps…

Mathematical models can provide quantitative insight into immunoreceptor signaling, but require parameterization and uncertainty quantification before making reliable predictions. We review currently available methods and software tools to…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2019-06-28 Eshan D. Mitra , William S. Hlavacek

We consider an empirical likelihood inference for parameters defined by general estimating equations when some components of the random observations are subject to missingness. As the nature of the estimating equations is wide-ranging, we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-03-05 Dong Wang , Song Xi Chen

A critical step in data analysis for many different types of experiments is the identification of features with theoretically defined shapes in N-dimensional datasets; examples of this process include finding peaks in multi-dimensional…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2022-08-25 Korak Kumar Ray , Anjali R. Verma , Ruben L. Gonzalez , Colin D. Kinz-Thompson

We present a new subspace-based method to construct probabilistic models for high-dimensional data and highlight its use in anomaly detection. The approach is based on a statistical estimation of probability density using densities of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-16 Cetin Savkli , Catherine Schwartz

Complex biological processes are usually experimented along time among a collection of individuals. Longitudinal data are then available and the statistical challenge is to better understand the underlying biological mechanisms. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-06-11 Pierre Barbillon , Célia Barthélémy , Adeline Samson

Digital sensors can lead to noisy results under many circumstances. To be able to remove the undesired noise from images, proper noise modeling and an accurate noise parameter estimation is crucial. In this project, we use a…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-12-21 Étienne Objois , Kaan Okumuş , Nicolas Bähler

Modeling biological processes is a highly demanding task because not all processes are fully understood. Mathematical models allow us to test hypotheses about possible mechanisms of biological processes. The mathematical mechanisms…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-12-11 Cordula Reisch , Hannah Burmester

Fitting models to data is an important part of the practice of science. Advances in machine learning have made it possible to fit more -- and more complex -- models, but have also exacerbated a problem: when multiple models fit the data…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-27 Alexandre René , André Longtin

Mathematical models of measuring systems and processes play an essential role in metrology and practical measurements. They form the basis for understanding and evaluating measurements, their results and their trustworthiness. Classic…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-08-13 Nadine Schiering , Sascha Eichstaedt , Michael Heizmann , Wolfgang Koch , Linda-Sophie Schneider , Stephan Scheele , Klaus-Dieter Sommer

In machine learning (ML) verification, the majority of procedures are non-quantitative and therefore cannot be used for verifying probabilistic models, or be applied in domains where hard guarantees are practically unachievable. The…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-10-24 Paolo Morettin , Andrea Passerini , Roberto Sebastiani

Statistical inference in high dimensional settings has recently attracted enormous attention within the literature. However, most published work focuses on the parametric linear regression problem. This paper considers an important…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-14 Qi Gao , Randy C. S. Lai , Thomas C. M. Lee , Yao Li

In this paper we consider the estimation of unknown parameters in Bayesian inverse problems. In most cases of practical interest, there are several barriers to performing such estimation, This includes a numerical approximation of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-07 Neil K. Chada , Ajay Jasra , Mohamed Maama , Raul Tempone

Probabilistic regression models the entire predictive distribution of a response variable, offering richer insights than classical point estimates and directly allowing for uncertainty quantification. While diffusion-based generative models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-07 Carlo Kneissl , Christopher Bülte , Philipp Scholl , Gitta Kutyniok

Predictions and forecasts of machine learning models should take the form of probability distributions, aiming to increase the quantity of information communicated to end users. Although applications of probabilistic prediction and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-19 Hristos Tyralis , Georgia Papacharalampous

For frequentist settings in which parameter randomness represents variability rather than uncertainty, the ideal measure of the support for one hypothesis over another is the difference in the posterior and prior log odds. For situations in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-09-03 David R. Bickel

The vast majority of stochastic simulation models are imperfect in that they fail to exactly emulate real system dynamics. The inexactness of the simulation model, or model discrepancy, can impact the predictive accuracy and usefulness of…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-21 Matthew Plumlee , Henry Lam

Estimations of physical parameters using data usually involve non-uniform experimental efficiencies. In this article, a method of maximum likelihood fit is introduced using the efficiency as a weight, while the probability distribution…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2023-08-31 Chenxu Yu , Yanxi Zhang

We investigate methods for parameter learning from incomplete data that is not missing at random. Likelihood-based methods then require the optimization of a profile likelihood that takes all possible missingness mechanisms into account.…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-07-02 Manfred Jaeger