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State-level policy evaluations commonly employ a difference-in-differences (DID) study design; yet within this framework, statistical model specification varies notably across studies. Motivated by applied state-level opioid policy…

Using state-level opioid overdose mortality data from 1999-2016, we simulated four time-varying treatment scenarios, which correspond to real-world policy dynamics (ramp up, ramp down, temporary and inconsistent). We then evaluated seven…

Observational epidemiological studies commonly seek to estimate the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome. Adjustment for potential confounding bias in modern studies is challenging due to the presence of high-dimensional confounding,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-29 Susan Ellul , Stijn Vansteelandt , John B. Carlin , Margarita Moreno-Betancur

Applied analysts often use the differences-in-differences (DID) method to estimate the causal effect of policy interventions with observational data. The method is widely used, as the required before and after comparison of a treated and…

Applications · Statistics 2019-02-04 Luke J. Keele , Dylan S. Small , Jesse Y. Hsu , Colin B. Fogarty

This paper considers identification and estimation of causal effect parameters from participating in a binary treatment in a difference in differences (DID) setup when the parallel trends assumption holds after conditioning on observed…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-06-25 Carolina Caetano , Brantly Callaway , Stroud Payne , Hugo Sant'Anna Rodrigues

Identification of treatment effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding is a persistent problem in the social, biological, and medical sciences. The problem of unmeasured confounding in settings with multiple treatments is most common…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-12 Wang Miao , Wenjie Hu , Elizabeth L. Ogburn , Xiaohua Zhou

To estimate the causal effect of treatments that vary over time from observational data, one must adjust for time-varying confounding. A common procedure to address confounding is the use of inverse probability of treatment weighting…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-22 Wouter M. R. Kant , Jesse H. Krijthe

Measuring treatment effects in observational studies is challenging because of confounding bias. Confounding occurs when a variable affects both the treatment and the outcome. Traditional methods such as propensity score matching estimate…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-23 Bevan I. Smith , Charles Chimedza

In observational studies, potential unobserved confounding is a major barrier in isolating the average causal effect (ACE). In these scenarios, two main approaches are often used: confounder adjustment for causality (CAC) and instrumental…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-26 Roy S. Zawadzki , Daniel L. Gillen

Causal approaches to fairness have seen substantial recent interest, both from the machine learning community and from wider parties interested in ethical prediction algorithms. In no small part, this has been due to the fact that causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-17 Niki Kilbertus , Philip J. Ball , Matt J. Kusner , Adrian Weller , Ricardo Silva

We study the problem of learning personalized decision policies from observational data while accounting for possible unobserved confounding. Previous approaches, which assume unconfoundedness, i.e., that no unobserved confounders affect…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-05 Nathan Kallus , Angela Zhou

A central challenge in any study of the effects of beliefs on outcomes, such as decisions and behavior, is the risk of omitted variables bias. Omitted variables, frequently unmeasured or even unknown, can induce correlations between beliefs…

General Economics · Economics 2025-08-05 Raanan Sulitzeanu-Kenan , Micha Mandel , Yosef Rinott

Evaluating and optimizing policies in the presence of unobserved confounders is a problem of growing interest in offline reinforcement learning. Using conventional methods for offline RL in the presence of confounding can not only lead to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-08 Chinmaya Kausik , Yangyi Lu , Kevin Tan , Maggie Makar , Yixin Wang , Ambuj Tewari

Background. A central objective among health researchers across disciplines is to identify modifiable factors that can reduce health disparities. Three common methods--difference-in-coefficients (DIC), Kitagawa-Oaxaca-Blinder (KOB), and…

Applications · Statistics 2025-08-05 Soojin Park , Su Yeon Kim , Chioun Lee

Treatment specific survival curves are an important tool to illustrate the treatment effect in studies with time-to-event outcomes. In non-randomized studies, unadjusted estimates can lead to biased depictions due to confounding. Multiple…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-25 Robin Denz , Renate Klaaßen-Mielke , Nina Timmesfeld

Random-effects meta-analyses of observational studies can produce biased estimates if the synthesized studies are subject to unmeasured confounding. We propose sensitivity analyses quantifying the extent to which unmeasured confounding of…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-10 Maya B. Mathur , Tyler J. VanderWeele

We revisit the classical causal inference problem of estimating the average treatment effect in the presence of fully observed confounding variables using two-stage semiparametric methods. In existing theoretical studies of methods such as…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-23 Steve Yadlowsky

Estimating individualized treatment effects from longitudinal observational data is central to data-driven medicine, yet existing methods face a fundamental limitation: reducing confounding bias often suppresses clinically informative…

Causal decomposition analysis aims to assess the effect of modifying risk factors on reducing social disparities in outcomes. Recently, this analysis has incorporated individual characteristics when modifying risk factors by utilizing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-16 Soojin Park , Suyeon Kang , Chioun Lee

Difference-in-differences (DID) approaches are widely used for estimating causal effects with observational data before and after an intervention. DID traditionally estimates the average treatment effect among the treated after making a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-24 Julia C. Thome , Andrew J. Spieker , Peter F. Rebeiro , Chun Li , Tong Li , Bryan E. Shepherd
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