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We formulate and analyze an inverse problem using derivatives prices to obtain an implied filtering density on volatility's hidden state. Stochastic volatility is the unobserved state in a hidden Markov model (HMM) and can be tracked using…
Recommender systems are widely used for suggesting books, education materials, and products to users by exploring their behaviors. In reality, users' preferences often change over time, leading to studies on time-dependent recommender…
There is much interest in the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) as a natural Bayesian nonparametric extension of the ubiquitous Hidden Markov Model for learning from sequential and time-series data. However, in…
We consider probabilistic systems with hidden state and unobservable transitions, an extension of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) that in particular admits unobservable {\epsilon}-transitions (also called null transitions), allowing state…
We define a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) in which each hidden state has time-dependent $\textit{activity levels}$ that drive transitions and emissions, and show how to estimate its parameters. Our construction is motivated by the problem of…
In this paper, we consider the stability analysis of large-scale distributed networked control systems with random communication delays between linearly interconnected subsystems. The stability analysis is performed in the Markov jump…
We consider a class of queries called durability prediction queries that arise commonly in predictive analytics, where we use a given predictive model to answer questions about possible futures to inform our decisions. Examples of…
This paper presents a novel approach to stochastic volatility (SV) modeling by utilizing nonparametric techniques that enhance our ability to capture the volatility of financial time series data, with a particular emphasis on the…
Financial markets exhibit alternating periods of rising and falling prices. Stock traders seeking to make profitable investment decisions have to account for those trends, where the goal is to accurately predict switches from bullish…
The polling system with switch-over durations is a useful model with several practical applications. It is classified as a Discrete Event Dynamic System (DEDS) for which no one agreed upon modelling approach exists. Furthermore, DEDS are…
This study investigates an optimal consumption--investment problem in which the unobserved stock trend is modulated by a hidden Markov chain that represents different economic regimes. In the classical approach, the hidden state is…
We propose a Bayesian hidden Markov model for analyzing time series and sequential data where a special structure of the transition probability matrix is embedded to model explicit-duration semi-Markovian dynamics. Our formulation allows…
Data collected by wearable devices in sports provide valuable information about an athlete's behavior such as their activity, performance, and ability. These time series data can be studied with approaches such as hidden Markov and…
Existing deep learning models for Predictive Process Monitoring (PPM) struggle with temporal irregularities, particularly stochastic event durations and overlapping timestamps, limiting their adaptability across heterogeneous datasets. We…
We search for digital biomarkers from Parkinson's Disease by observing approximate repetitive patterns matching hypothesized step and stride periodic cycles. These observations were modeled as a cycle of hidden states with randomness…
We consider parametric version of fixed-delay continuous-time Markov chains (or equivalently deterministic and stochastic Petri nets, DSPN) where fixed-delay transitions are specified by parameters, rather than concrete values. Our goal is…
A Hidden Markov Model for intraday momentum trading is presented which specifies a latent momentum state responsible for generating the observed securities' noisy returns. Existing momentum trading models suffer from time-lagging caused by…
Markov decision processes (MDPs) are the defacto frame-work for sequential decision making in the presence ofstochastic uncertainty. A classical optimization criterion forMDPs is to maximize the expected discounted-sum pay-off, which…
Control applications often feature tasks with similar, but not identical, dynamics. We introduce the Hidden Parameter Markov Decision Process (HiP-MDP), a framework that parametrizes a family of related dynamical systems with a…
This paper introduces the Markov-Switching Multifractal Duration (MSMD) model by adapting the MSM stochastic volatility model of Calvet and Fisher (2004) to the duration setting. Although the MSMD process is exponential $\beta$-mixing as we…