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Expected Shortfall (ES) is a coherent measure of tail risk that captures the average loss beyond a quantile threshold. Despite the growing literature on ES regression conditional on covariates, no existing work considers ES modeling in…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-15 Yujie Hou , Xinbing Kong , Yalin Wang , Bin Wu

Expected shortfall (ES), also known as conditional value-at-risk, is a widely recognized risk measure that complements value-at-risk by capturing tail-related risks more effectively. Compared with quantile regression, which has been…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-13 Myeonghun Yu , Kean Ming Tan , Huixia Judy Wang , Wen-Xin Zhou

Expected shortfall is defined as the average over the tail below (or above) a certain quantile of a probability distribution. Expected shortfall regression provides powerful tools for learning the relationship between a response variable…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-03 Shushu Zhang , Xuming He , Kean Ming Tan , Wen-Xin Zhou

We consider the problem of automatic variable selection in a linear model with asymmetric or heavy-tailed errors when the number of explanatory variables diverges with the sample size. For this high-dimensional model, the penalized least…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-12-10 Gabriela Ciuperca

We consider both $\ell _{0}$-penalized and $\ell _{0}$-constrained quantile regression estimators. For the $\ell _{0}$-penalized estimator, we derive an exponential inequality on the tail probability of excess quantile prediction risk and…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-30 Le-Yu Chen , Sokbae Lee

The $\ell_1$-penalized method, or the Lasso, has emerged as an important tool for the analysis of large data sets. Many important results have been obtained for the Lasso in linear regression which have led to a deeper understanding of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2011-12-30 Jian Huang , Cun-Hui Zhang

The aim of this paper is to provide a comprehensive introduction for the study of L1-penalized estimators in the context of dependent observations. We define a general $\ell_{1}$-penalized estimator for solving problems of stochastic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-08-10 Pierre Alquier , Paul Doukhan

Expected Shortfall (ES), also known as superquantile or Conditional Value-at-Risk, has been recognized as an important measure in risk analysis and stochastic optimization, and is also finding applications beyond these areas. In finance, it…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-13 Xuming He , Kean Ming Tan , Wen-Xin Zhou

We consider a general high-dimensional additive hazard model in a non-asymptotic setting, including regression for censored-data. In this context, we consider a Lasso estimator with a fully data-driven $\ell_1$ penalization, which is tuned…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-03-06 Séphane Gaïffas , Agathe Guilloux

A joint conditional autoregressive expectile and Expected Shortfall framework is proposed. The framework is extended through incorporating a measurement equation which models the contemporaneous dependence between the realized measures and…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2019-06-25 Chao Wang , Richard Gerlach

As an effective nonparametric method, empirical likelihood (EL) is appealing in combining estimating equations flexibly and adaptively for incorporating data information. To select important variables and estimating equations in the sparse…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-02 Jiaqi Li , Liya Fu

We propose a new estimator, the thresholded scaled Lasso, in high dimensional threshold regressions. First, we establish an upper bound on the $\ell_\infty$ estimation error of the scaled Lasso estimator of Lee et al. (2012). This is a…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-02-11 Laurent Callot , Mehmet Caner , Anders Bredahl Kock , Juan Andres Riquelme

We study a high-dimensional generalized linear model and penalized empirical risk minimization with $\ell_1$ penalty. Our aim is to provide a non-trivial illustration that non-asymptotic bounds for the estimator can be obtained without…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-09-12 Sara A. van de Geer

We propose a new estimator for the high-dimensional linear regression model with observation error in the design where the number of coefficients is potentially larger than the sample size. The main novelty of our procedure is that the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-09 Alexandre Belloni , Abhishek Kaul , Mathieu Rosenbaum

A new semi-parametric Expected Shortfall (ES) estimation and forecasting framework is proposed. The proposed approach is based on a two-step estimation procedure. The first step involves the estimation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) at different…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-03-16 Giuseppe Storti , Chao Wang

When we are interested in high-dimensional system and focus on classification performance, the $\ell_{1}$-penalized logistic regression is becoming important and popular. However, the Lasso estimates could be problematic when penalties of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-12 Huamei Huang , Yujing Gao , Huiming Zhang , Bo Li

This paper investigates tradeoffs among optimization errors, statistical rates of convergence and the effect of heavy-tailed errors for high-dimensional robust regression with nonconvex regularization. When the additive errors in linear…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-01-01 Xiaoou Pan , Qiang Sun , Wen-Xin Zhou

This paper develops a theoretical framework for Extreme Partial Least Squares (EPLS) dimension reduction in the presence of missing data and weak temporal dependence. Building upon the recent EPLS methodology for modeling extremal…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-17 Stéphane Girard , Cambyse Pakzad

Beta regression is commonly employed when the outcome variable is a proportion. Since its conception, the approach has been widely used in applications spanning various scientific fields. A series of extensions have been proposed over time,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-29 Niloofar Ramezani , Martin Slawski

Expected Shortfall (ES), the average loss above a high quantile, is the current financial regulatory market risk measure. Its estimation and optimization are highly unstable against sample fluctuations and become impossible above a critical…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-05-05 Gábor Papp , Imre Kondor , Fabio Caccioli
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