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We study the problem of causal discovery through targeted interventions. Starting from few observational measurements, we follow a Bayesian active learning approach to perform those experiments which, in expectation with respect to the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-10 Julius von Kügelgen , Paul K Rubenstein , Bernhard Schölkopf , Adrian Weller

Due to the significant process variations, designers have to optimize the statistical performance distribution of nano-scale IC design in most cases. This problem has been investigated for decades under the formulation of stochastic…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2023-08-17 Yifan Pan , Zichang He , Nanlin Guo , Zheng Zhang

Bayesian optimal experimental design (BOED) provides a powerful, decision-theoretic framework for selecting experiments so as to maximise the expected utility of the data to be collected. In practice, however, its applicability can be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-13 Louis Sharrock

Bayesian adaptive designs have gained popularity in all phases of clinical trials with numerous new developments in the past few decades. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the need to establish evidence for the effectiveness of vaccines,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-08 Shirin Golchi

Bayesian inference for high-dimensional inverse problems is computationally costly and requires selecting a suitable prior distribution. Amortized variational inference addresses these challenges via a neural network that approximates the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-19 Ali Siahkoohi , Gabrio Rizzuti , Rafael Orozco , Felix J. Herrmann

We study system design problems stated as parameterized stochastic programs with a chance-constraint set. We adopt a Bayesian approach that requires the computation of a posterior predictive integral which is usually intractable. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-07 Prateek Jaiswal , Harsha Honnappa , Vinayak A. Rao

We present a flexible method for computing Bayesian optimal experimental designs (BOEDs) for inverse problems with intractable posteriors. The approach is applicable to a wide range of BOED problems and can accommodate various optimality…

Computation · Statistics 2024-08-20 Karina Koval , Roland Herzog , Robert Scheichl

We consider optimal design of infinite-dimensional Bayesian linear inverse problems governed by partial differential equations that contain secondary reducible model uncertainties, in addition to the uncertainty in the inversion parameters.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-06-23 Alen Alexanderian , Noemi Petra , Georg Stadler , Isaac Sunseri

This paper presents a study of the large-sample behavior of the posterior distribution of a structural parameter which is partially identified by moment inequalities. The posterior density is derived based on the limited information…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-01-13 Yuan Liao , Wenxin Jiang

Bayesian inference for inverse problems involves computing expectations under posterior distributions -- e.g., posterior means, variances, or predictive quantities -- typically via Monte Carlo (MC) estimation. When the quantity of interest…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-26 Ali Siahkoohi , Hyunwoo Oh

Designing efficient experiments under practical constraints is critical in both scientific research and industrial practice. Focusing on minimizing the average variance of the parameter estimates, A-optimal designs show advantages in…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-20 Yingying Yang , Xiaotian Chen , Jie Yang

This paper presents a general asymptotic theory of sequential Bayesian estimation giving results for the strongest, almost sure convergence. We show that under certain smoothness conditions on the probability model, the greedy information…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-01-11 Janne V. Kujala

Causal effect estimation often succeeds cost-constrained sequential data collection. This work considers multivariate linear front-door models with arbitrary unobserved confounding on treatment and response. We optimize the experimental…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-24 Leopold Mareis , Mathias Drton

Estimation frameworks for statistical inference are preferred to hypothesis testing when quantifying uncertainty and precise estimation are more valuable than binary decisions about statistical significance. Study design for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-29 Luke Hagar , Nathaniel T. Stevens

We consider optimal experimental design (OED) problems in selecting the most informative observation sensors to estimate model parameters in a Bayesian framework. Such problems are computationally prohibitive when the…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2024-09-10 Jinwoo Go , Peng Chen

Optimal design of experiments for Bayesian inverse problems has recently gained wide popularity and attracted much attention, especially in the computational science and Bayesian inversion communities. An optimal design maximizes a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-05-09 Ahmed Attia , Sven Leyffer , Todd Munson

We propose a new procedure named PASOA, for Bayesian experimental design, that performs sequential design optimization by simultaneously providing accurate estimates of successive posterior distributions for parameter inference. The…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-16 Jacopo Iollo , Christophe Heinkelé , Pierre Alliez , Florence Forbes

We develop a new computational approach for "focused" optimal Bayesian experimental design with nonlinear models, with the goal of maximizing expected information gain in targeted subsets of model parameters. Our approach considers…

Computation · Statistics 2019-03-28 Chi Feng , Youssef M. Marzouk

This work proposes a Bayesian inference method for the reduced-order modeling of time-dependent systems. Informed by the structure of the governing equations, the task of learning a reduced-order model from data is posed as a Bayesian…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-01-18 Mengwu Guo , Shane A. McQuarrie , Karen E. Willcox

In this article a novel approach for training deep neural networks using Bayesian techniques is presented. The Bayesian methodology allows for an easy evaluation of model uncertainty and additionally is robust to overfitting. These are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-03 Konstantin Posch , Jürgen Pilz
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