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Related papers: Analyzing Generalized P\'olya Urn Models using Mar…

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This work is devoted to P\'olya-Young urns, a class of periodic P\'olya urns of importance in the analysis of Young tableaux. We provide several extension of the previous results of Banderier, Marchal and Wallner [Ann. Prob. (2020)] on…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-06-28 Markus Kuba

The generalized P\`olya urn (GPU) models and their variants have been investigated in several disciplines. However, typical assumptions made with respect to the GPU do not include urn models with diagonal replacement matrix, which arise in…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-02-24 Andrea Ghiglietti , Anand N. Vidyashankar , William F. Rosenberger

A P\'olya urn process is a Markov chain that models the evolution of an urn containing some coloured balls, the set of possible colours being $\{1,\ldots,d\}$ for $d\in \mathbb{N}$. At each time step, a random ball is chosen uniformly in…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-03-13 Cécile Mailler , Jean-François Marckert

In this paper, we explain the connection between the Elephant Random Walk (ERW) and an urn model \`a la P\'olya and derive functional limit theorems for the former. The ERW model was introduced by Sch\"utz and Trimper [2004] to study memory…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-01-07 Erich Baur , Jean Bertoin

Branching processes are widely used to model the viral epidemic evolution. For more adequate investigation of viral epidemic modelling, we suggest to apply branching processes with transport of particles usually called branching random…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-01-29 Elizaveta Ermakova , Polina Makhmutova , Elena Yarovaya

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) provide strong internal validity compared with observational studies. However, selection bias threatens the external validity of randomized trials. Thus, RCT results may not apply to either broad public…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-04-26 Ziyue Chen , Eloise Kaizar

Developments in genome-wide association studies and the increasing availability of summary genetic association data have made the application of two-sample Mendelian Randomization (MR) with summary data increasingly popular. Conventional…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-22 Xinwei Ma , Jingshen Wang , Chong Wu

The P\'olya urn scheme is a discrete-time process concerning the addition and removal of colored balls. There is a known embedding of it in continuous-time, called the P\'olya process. We deal with a generalization of this stochastic model,…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-29 Daniel Krenn , Hosam Mahmoud , Mark Daniel Ward

The models surveyed include generalized P\'{o}lya urns, reinforced random walks, interacting urn models, and continuous reinforced processes. Emphasis is on methods and results, with sketches provided of some proofs. Applications are…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Robin Pemantle

Consider a generalized time-dependent P\'olya urn process defined as follows. Let $d\in \mathbb{N}$ be the number of urns/colors. At each time $n$, we distribute $\sigma_n$ balls randomly to the $d$ urns, proportionally to $f$, where $f$ is…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-02-01 Wioletta M. Ruszel , Debleena Thacker

The randomized play-the-winner rule (RPW) is a response-adaptive design proposed by Wei and Durham (1978) for sequentially randomizing patients to treatments in a two-treatment clinical trial so that more patients are assigned to the better…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-07-30 Li-Xin Zhang

This study analyzes pass networks in football (soccer) using a stochastic model known as the P\'olya urn. By focusing on preferential selection, it theoretically demonstrates that the time evolution of networks can be characterized by a…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-12-19 Ken Yamamoto

Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) may suffer from limited scope. In particular, samples may be unrepresentative: some RCTs over- or under- sample individuals with certain characteristics compared to the target population, for which one…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-15 Bénédicte Colnet , Julie Josse , Gaël Varoquaux , Erwan Scornet

We study a new class of time inhomogeneous P\'olya-type urn schemes and give optimal rates of convergence for the distribution of the properly scaled number of balls of a given color to nearly the full class of generalized gamma…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-06-28 Erol A. Peköz , Adrian Röllin , Nathan Ross

We generalise the randomness test definitions in the literature for both the Martin-L\"of and Schnorr randomness of a series of binary outcomes, in order to allow for interval-valued rather than merely precise forecasts for these outcomes,…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-12-21 Gert de Cooman , Floris Persiau , Jasper De Bock

Mendelian randomization is the use of genetic variants to make causal inferences from observational data. The field is currently undergoing a revolution fuelled by increasing numbers of genetic variants demonstrated to be associated with…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-31 Stephen Burgess , Jack Bowden , Frank Dudbridge , Simon G Thompson

This paper is devoted to a direct martingale approach for P{\'o}lya urn models asymptotic behaviour. A P{\'o}lya process is said to be small when the ratio of its remplacement matrix eigenvalues is less than or equal to 1/2, otherwise it is…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-03-11 Lucile Laulin

A classical P\'olya urn scheme is a Markov process whose evolution is encoded by a replacement matrix $(R_{i,j})_{1\leq i,j\leq d}$. At every discrete time-step, we draw a ball uniformly at random, denote its colour $c$, and replace it in…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-18 Nabil Lasmar , Cécile Mailler , Olfa Selmi

In the present paper, we introduce and analyze elephant random walks (ERWs) on bipartite periodic lattices arising as coverings of dipole graphs. We focus on lattices whose admissible step directions in the two parts of the bipartition are…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-30 Nobuaki Naganuma , Kaito Yura

The gold standard for causal model evaluation involves comparing model predictions with true effects estimated from randomized controlled trials (RCT). However, RCTs are not always feasible or ethical to perform. In contrast, conditionally…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-06 Chao Ma , Cheng Zhang
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