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We propose a novel method, termed the M-learner, for estimating heterogeneous indirect and total treatment effects and identifying relevant subgroups within a mediation framework. The procedure comprises four key steps. First, we compute…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-14 Xingyu Li , Qing Liu , Tony Jiang , Hong Amy Xia , Brian P. Hobbs , Peng Wei

Evaluating the effects of time-varying exposures is essential for longitudinal studies. The effect estimation becomes increasingly challenging when dealing with hundreds of time-dependent confounders. We propose a Marginal Structure…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-21 Zhiwei Zhao , Chixiang Chen , Shuo Chen

Greater understanding of the pathways through which an environmental mixture operates is important to design effective interventions. We present new methodology to estimate natural direct and indirect effects and controlled direct effects…

Biological sequencing data consist of read counts, e.g. of specified taxa and often exhibit sparsity (zero-count inflation) and overdispersion (extra-Poisson variability). As most sequencing techniques provide an arbitrary total count,…

Applications · Statistics 2024-07-01 Noora Kartiosuo , Jaakko Nevalainen , Olli Raitakari , Katja Pahkala , Kari Auranen

We consider the optimal decision-making problem in a primary sample of interest with multiple auxiliary sources available. The outcome of interest is limited in the sense that it is only observed in the primary sample. In reality, such…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-23 Hengrui Cai , Wenbin Lu , Rui Song

Mediation analysis, which started with Baron and Kenny (1986), is used extensively by applied researchers. Indirect and direct effects are the part of a treatment effect that is mediated by a covariate and the part that is not. Subsequent…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-17 Judith J. Lok , Ronald J. Bosch

Given a binary treatment D and a binary mediator M, mediation analysis decomposes the total effect of D on an outcome Y into the direct and indirect effects. Typically, both D and M are assumed to be exogenous, but this paper allows M to be…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-09 Bora Kim , Myoung-jae Lee

There is wide interest in studying how the distribution of a continuous response changes with a predictor. We are motivated by environmental applications in which the predictor is the dose of an exposure and the response is a health…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-10 Antonio Canale , Daniele Durante , David Dunson

A full parametric and linear specification may be insufficient to capture complicated patterns in studies exploring complex features, such as those investigating age-related changes in brain functional abilities. Alternatively, a partially…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-07 Jia Liang , Shuo Chen , Peter Kochunov , L Elliot Hong , Chixiang Chen

We consider estimation and inference on average treatment effects under unconfoundedness conditional on the realizations of the treatment variable and covariates. Given nonparametric smoothness and/or shape restrictions on the conditional…

Applications · Statistics 2022-10-04 Timothy B. Armstrong , Michal Kolesár

Quantitative evidence synthesis methods aim to combine data from multiple medical trials to infer relative effects of different interventions. A challenge arises when trials report continuous outcomes on different measurement scales. To…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-29 Annabel L Davies , A E Ades , Julian PT Higgins

Mediation analysis aims to identify and estimate the effect of an exposure on an outcome that is mediated through one or more intermediate variables. In the presence of multiple intermediate variables, two pertinent methodological questions…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2026-01-06 Allan Jérolon , Flora Alarcon , Florence Pittion , Magali Richard , Olivier François , Etienne E. Birmelé , Vittorio Perduca

Mediation analysis is critical to understanding the mechanisms underlying exposure-outcome relationships. In this paper, we identify the instrumental variable (IV)-direct effect of the exposure on the outcome not through the mediator, using…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-16 Kara E Rudolph , Oleg Sofrygin , Mark J van der Laan

Economists are often interested in the mechanisms by which a treatment affects an outcome. We develop tests for the "sharp null of full mediation" that a treatment $D$ affects an outcome $Y$ only through a particular mechanism (or set of…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-23 Soonwoo Kwon , Jonathan Roth

Brain functional connectome, the collection of interconnected neural circuits along functional networks, is one of the most cutting edge neuroimaging traits, and has a potential to play a mediating role within the effect pathway between an…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-28 Yize Zhao , Tianqi Chen , Jiachen Cai , Sarah Lichenstein , Marc Potenza , Sarah Yip

Randomized controlled trials are the standard method for estimating causal effects, ensuring sufficient statistical power and confidence through adequate sample sizes. However, achieving such sample sizes is often challenging. This study…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-28 Keisuke Hanada , Masahiro Kojima

The human microbiome has an important role in determining health. Mediation analyses quantify the contribution of the microbiome in the causal path between exposure and disease; however, current mediation models cannot fully capture the…

Applications · Statistics 2023-01-09 Yuka Moroishi , Zhigang Li , Juliette C. Madan , Hongzhe Li , Margaret R. Karagas , Jiang Gui

Mediation analysis is a form of causal inference that investigates indirect effects and causal mechanisms. Confidence intervals for indirect effects play a central role in conducting inference. The problem is non-standard leading to…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-12-17 Kees Jan van Garderen , Noud van Giersbergen

Mediation analysis draws increasing attention in many scientific areas such as genomics, epidemiology and finance. In this paper, we propose new statistical inference procedures for high dimensional mediation models, in which both the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-30 Xu Guo , Runze Li , Jingyuan Liu , Mudong Zeng

This Element offers a practical guide to estimating conditional marginal effects-how treatment effects vary with a moderating variable-using modern statistical methods. Commonly used approaches, such as linear interaction models, often…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-21 Jiehan Liu , Ziyi Liu , Yiqing Xu
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