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Calculating transition probabilities between different states of multistable climate tipping systems is computationally challenging in high-dimensional models. Targeted algorithms, such as the Trajectory-Adaptive Multilevel Splitting (TAMS)…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-24 Lucas Esclapez , Valérian Jacques-Dumas , Reyk Börner , Laurent Soucasse , Henk A. Dijkstra

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important component of the global climate, known to be a tipping element, as it could collapse under global warming. The main objective of this study is to compute the probability…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-07-03 Valérian Jacques-Dumas , René M. van Westen , Henk A. Dijkstra

Rare events play a crucial role in many physics, chemistry, and biology phenomena, when they change the structure of the system, for instance in the case of multistability, or when they have a huge impact. Rare event algorithms have been…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-08-24 Dario Lucente , Joran Rolland , Corentin Herbert , Freddy Bouchet

The committor functions are central to investigating rare but important events in molecular simulations. It is known that computing the committor function suffers from the curse of dimensionality. Recently, using neural networks to estimate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-28 Yueyang Wang , Kejun Tang , Xili Wang , Xiaoliang Wan , Weiqing Ren , Chao Yang

A central object in the computational studies of rare events is the committor function. Though costly to compute, the committor function encodes complete mechanistic information of the processes involving rare events, including reaction…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-11-23 Muhammad R. Hasyim , Clay H. Batton , Kranthi K. Mandadapu

The committor function is a central object for quantifying the transitions between metastable states of dynamical systems. Recently, a number of computational methods based on deep neural networks have been developed for computing the…

Computational Physics · Physics 2024-04-10 Bo Lin , Weiqing Ren

The study of rare events is one of the major challenges in atomistic simulations, and several enhanced sampling methods towards its solution have been proposed. Recently, it has been suggested that the use of the committor, which provides a…

Computational Physics · Physics 2025-10-23 Peilin Kang , Jintu Zhang , Enrico Trizio , TingJun Hou , Michele Parrinello

The committor function is a central object of study in understanding transitions between metastable states in complex systems. However, computing the committor function for realistic systems at low temperatures is a challenging task, due to…

Computational Physics · Physics 2019-09-04 Qianxiao Li , Bo Lin , Weiqing Ren

Computing long-timescale kinetics of biomolecular processes remains a major challenge for atomistic simulations. A way out is to exploit local kinetic information to construct the global stationary flux across the reaction space. The…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2026-05-19 Ru Wang , Xiaojun Ji , Hao Wang , Wenjian Liu

The reduction of the computational effort is desirable for the simulation of marine ecosystem models. Using a marine ecosystem model, the assessment and the validation of annual periodic solutions (i.e., steady annual cycles) against…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-07-29 Markus Pfeil , Thomas Slawig

Stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems can undergo rapid transitions relative to the change in their forcing, for example due to the occurrence of multiple equilibrium solutions for a specific interval of parameters. In this paper, we…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-11-12 S. Baars , D. Castellana , F. W. Wubs , H. A. Dijkstra

Adaptive multilevel splitting algorithms have been introduced rather recently for estimating tail distributions in a fast and efficient way. In particular, they can be used for computing the so-called reactive trajectories corresponding to…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2014-12-25 Joran Rolland , Eric Simonnet

We propose a novel approach for computing committor functions, which describe transitions of a stochastic process between metastable states. The committor function satisfies a backward Kolmogorov equation, and in typical high-dimensional…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-08-04 Yian Chen , Jeremy Hoskins , Yuehaw Khoo , Michael Lindsey

We propose a two step strategy for estimating one-dimensional dynamical parameters of a quantum Markov chain, which involves quantum post-processing the output using a coherent quantum absorber and a "pattern counting'' estimator computed…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-08-28 Federico Girotti , Alfred Godley , Mădălin Guţă

We present a data-driven point of view for rare events, which represent conformational transitions in biochemical reactions modeled by over-damped Langevin dynamics on manifolds in high dimensions. We first reinterpret the transition state…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-04-06 Yuan Gao , Tiejun Li , Xiaoguang Li , Jian-Guo Liu

Rare events such as conformational changes in biomolecules, phase transitions, and chemical reactions are central to the behavior of many physical systems, yet they are extremely difficult to study computationally because unbiased…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-16 Yuanqi Du , Jiajun He , Dinghuai Zhang , Eric Vanden-Eijnden , Carles Domingo-Enrich

This contribution introduces a neural-network-based approach to discover meaningful transition pathways underlying complex biomolecular transformations in coherence with the committor function. The proposed path-committor-consistent…

The probability that a configuration of a physical system reacts, or transitions from one metastable state to another, is quantified by the committor function. This function contains richly detailed mechanistic information about transition…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-08-13 Andrew R. Mitchell , Grant M. Rotskoff

Accurate modeling of ship performance is crucial for the shipping industry to optimize fuel consumption and subsequently reduce emissions. However, predicting the speed-power relation in real-world conditions remains a challenge. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-27 Simon DeKeyser , Casimir Morobé , Malte Mittendorf

In this note we propose a method based on artificial neural network to study the transition between states governed by stochastic processes. In particular, we aim for numerical schemes for the committor function, the central object of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-03-01 Yuehaw Khoo , Jianfeng Lu , Lexing Ying
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