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The behavior of extreme observations is well-understood for time series or spatial data, but little is known if the data generating process is a structural causal model (SCM). We study the behavior of extremes in this model class, both for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-11 Sebastian Engelke , Nicola Gnecco , Frank Röttger

Graphs are expressive abstractions representing more effectively relationships in data and enabling data science tasks. They are also a widely adopted paradigm in causal inference focusing on causal directed acyclic graphs. Causal DAGs…

Databases · Computer Science 2024-12-19 Amedeo Pachera , Mattia Palmiotto , Angela Bonifati , Andrea Mauri

Recursive linear structural equation models are widely used to postulate causal mechanisms underlying observational data. In these models, each variable equals a linear combination of a subset of the remaining variables plus an error term.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-03-21 F. Richard Guo , Emilija Perković

Inferring cause-effect relationships from observational data has gained significant attention in recent years, but most methods are limited to scalar random variables. In many important domains, including neuroscience, psychology, social…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-06 Konstantin Göbler , Tobias Windisch , Mathias Drton

A methodology for high dimensional causal inference in a time series context is introduced. It is assumed that there is a monotonic transformation of the data such that the dynamics of the transformed variables are described by a Gaussian…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-07 Francesco Cordoni , Alessio Sancetta

Causal graphs are commonly used to understand and model complex systems. Researchers often construct these graphs from different perspectives, leading to significant variations for the same problem. Comparing causal graphs is, therefore,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-17 Ning-Yuan Georgia Liu , Flower Yang , Mohammad S. Jalali

Recently, there has been a growing interest in learning and explaining causal effects within Neural Network (NN) models. By virtue of NN architectures, previous approaches consider only direct and total causal effects assuming independence…

We formulate a general framework for building structural causal models (SCMs) with deep learning components. The proposed approach employs normalising flows and variational inference to enable tractable inference of exogenous noise…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-26 Nick Pawlowski , Daniel C. Castro , Ben Glocker

Understanding which parts of a dynamical system cause each other is extremely relevant in fundamental and applied sciences. However, inferring causal links from observational data, namely without direct manipulations of the system, is still…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2025-06-27 Matteo Allione , Vittorio Del Tatto , Alessandro Laio

Many production processes are characterized by numerous and complex cause-and-effect relationships. Since they are only partially known they pose a challenge to effective process control. In this work we present how Structural Equation…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-27 Maximilian Kertel , Stefan Harmeling , Markus Pauly

Causal reasoning has gained great attention over the last half century as it allows (or at least intends) to answer questions which go above those within the capabilities of classical inferential statistics using just observational data. So…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-01-23 Ignacio González-Pérez

Influence diagram is a graphical representation of belief networks with uncertainty. This article studies the structural properties of a probabilistic model in an influence diagram. In particular, structural controllability theorems and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-03-25 Brian Y. Chan , Ross D. Shachter

The recovery of causal effects in structural models with missing data often relies on $m$-graphs, which assume that missingness mechanisms do not directly influence substantive variables. Yet, in many real-world settings, missing data can…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-19 Johan de Aguas , Leonard Henckel , Johan Pensar , Guido Biele

Quantifying the causal influence of input features within neural networks has become a topic of increasing interest. Existing approaches typically assess direct, indirect, and total causal effects. This work treats NNs as structural causal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-07 Saptarshi Saha , Dhruv Vansraj Rathore , Soumadeep Saha , Utpal Garain , David Doermann

The aim of this paper is to make clear and precise the relationship between the Rubin causal model (RCM) and structural causal model (SCM) frameworks for causal inference. Adopting a neutral logical perspective, and drawing on previous…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-08 Duligur Ibeling , Thomas Icard

Interacting systems are prevalent in nature. It is challenging to accurately predict the dynamics of the system if its constituent components are analyzed independently. We develop a graph-based model that unveils the systemic interactions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-31 Giangiacomo Mercatali , Andre Freitas , Jie Chen

Precision medicine involves answering counterfactual questions such as "Would this patient respond better to treatment A or treatment B?" These types of questions are causal in nature and require the tools of causal inference to be…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-07-15 Jacob C. Reinhold , Aaron Carass , Jerry L. Prince

In real-world phenomena which involve mutual influence or causal effects between interconnected units, equilibrium states are typically represented with cycles in graphical models. An expressive class of graphical models, relational causal…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-03-20 Ragib Ahsan , David Arbour , Elena Zheleva

Causal effect identification considers whether an interventional probability distribution can be uniquely determined from a passively observed distribution in a given causal structure. If the generating system induces context-specific…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-07-03 Santtu Tikka , Antti Hyttinen , Juha Karvanen

An acyclic causal structure can be described with directed acyclic graph (DAG), where arrows indicate the possibility of direct causation. The task of learning this structure from data is known as "causal discovery." Diverse populations or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-17 Bijan Mazaheri , Spencer Gordon , Yuval Rabani , Leonard Schulman