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Uncertainty quantification is vital for decision-making and risk assessment in machine learning. Mean-variance regression models, which predict both a mean and residual noise for each data point, provide a simple approach to uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-01 Eliot Wong-Toi , Alex Boyd , Vincent Fortuin , Stephan Mandt

Recent theoretical studies (Kou et al., 2023; Cao et al., 2022) have revealed a sharp phase transition from benign to harmful overfitting when the noise-to-feature ratio exceeds a threshold-a situation common in long-tailed data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Ruichen Xu , Kexin Chen

In many modern applications of deep learning the neural network has many more parameters than the data points used for its training. Motivated by those practices, a large body of recent theoretical research has been devoted to studying…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-12-07 A. Tsigler , P. L. Bartlett

The phenomenon of benign overfitting is one of the key mysteries uncovered by deep learning methodology: deep neural networks seem to predict well, even with a perfect fit to noisy training data. Motivated by this phenomenon, we consider…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-08 Peter L. Bartlett , Philip M. Long , Gábor Lugosi , Alexander Tsigler

Recent research in neural networks and machine learning suggests that using many more parameters than strictly required by the initial complexity of a regression problem can result in more accurate or faster-converging models -- contrary to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-18 Arthur Castello B. de Oliveira , Milad Siami , Eduardo D. Sontag

This paper studies linear overparameterized models in economic forecasting and highlights that including noise variables (regressors with no predictive power) regularizes the estimator. We consider a setting where both the outcome variable…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-16 Yuan Liao , Xinjie Ma , Andreas Neuhierl , Zhentao Shi

Overparameterized neural networks (NNs) are observed to generalize well even when trained to perfectly fit noisy data. This phenomenon motivated a large body of work on "benign overfitting", where interpolating predictors achieve…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-22 Guy Kornowski , Gilad Yehudai , Ohad Shamir

Heteroscedastic regression models a Gaussian variable's mean and variance as a function of covariates. Parametric methods that employ neural networks for these parameter maps can capture complex relationships in the data. Yet, optimizing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-20 Andrew Stirn , Hans-Hermann Wessels , Megan Schertzer , Laura Pereira , Neville E. Sanjana , David A. Knowles

Meta learning has demonstrated tremendous success in few-shot learning with limited supervised data. In those settings, the meta model is usually overparameterized. While the conventional statistical learning theory suggests that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-10 Lisha Chen , Songtao Lu , Tianyi Chen

Current deep neural networks are highly overparameterized (up to billions of connection weights) and nonlinear. Yet they can fit data almost perfectly through variants of gradient descent algorithms and achieve unexpected levels of…

Over-parameterized neural network models often lead to significant performance discrepancies between training and test sets, a phenomenon known as overfitting. To address this, researchers have proposed numerous regularization techniques…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-27 RuiZhe Jiang , Haotian Lei

Assisted by the availability of data and high performance computing, deep learning techniques have achieved breakthroughs and surpassed human performance empirically in difficult tasks, including object recognition, speech recognition, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-01-23 Shaeke Salman , Xiuwen Liu

In classical statistics, the bias-variance trade-off describes how varying a model's complexity (e.g., number of fit parameters) affects its ability to make accurate predictions. According to this trade-off, optimal performance is achieved…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-08-05 Jason W. Rocks , Pankaj Mehta

Benign overfitting is a phenomenon in machine learning where a model perfectly fits (interpolates) the training data, including noisy examples, yet still generalizes well to unseen data. Understanding this phenomenon has attracted…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Junhyung Park , Patrick Bloebaum , Shiva Prasad Kasiviswanathan

The ultimate goal of regression analysis is to obtain information about the conditional distribution of a response given a set of explanatory variables. This goal is, however, seldom achieved because most established regression models only…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-13 Torsten Hothorn , Thomas Kneib , Peter Bühlmann

Overfitting is a phenomenon that occurs when a machine learning model is trained for too long and focused too much on the exact fitness of the training samples to the provided training labels and cannot keep track of the predictive rules…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-22 Nuri Korhan , Samet Bayram

The phenomenon of benign overfitting, where a predictor perfectly fits noisy training data while attaining near-optimal expected loss, has received much attention in recent years, but still remains not fully understood beyond well-specified…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-18 Ohad Shamir

The bias-variance trade-off is a central concept in supervised learning. In classical statistics, increasing the complexity of a model (e.g., number of parameters) reduces bias but also increases variance. Until recently, it was commonly…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-25 Jason W. Rocks , Pankaj Mehta

In the context of neural network models, overparametrization refers to the phenomena whereby these models appear to generalize well on the unseen data, even though the number of parameters significantly exceeds the sample sizes, and the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-25 Matt Emschwiller , David Gamarnik , Eren C. Kızıldağ , Ilias Zadik

Neural network models and deep models are one of the leading and state of the art models in machine learning. Most successful deep neural models are the ones with many layers which highly increases their number of parameters. Training such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-07-17 Soufiane Belharbi
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