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A framework for risk-averse optimization problems is introduced that is resilient to ambiguities in the true form of the underlying probability distribution. The focus is on problems with partial differential equations (PDEs) as…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-04-14 Harbir Antil , Alonso J. Bustos , Sean P. Carney , Benjamín Venegas

We develop a systematic information-theoretic framework for quantification and mitigation of error in probabilistic Lagrangian (i.e., path-based) predictions which are obtained from dynamical systems generated by uncertain (Eulerian) vector…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-01-03 Michal Branicki , Kenneth Uda

Estimation of the $\phi$-divergence between two unknown probability distributions using empirical data is a fundamental problem in information theory and statistical learning. We consider a multi-variate generalization of the data dependent…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-01-04 Fengqiao Luo , Sanjay Mehrotra

Semi-supervised learning has emerged as an appealing strategy to train deep models with limited supervision. Most prior literature under this learning paradigm resorts to dual-based architectures, typically composed of a teacher-student…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-03-08 Martin Van Waerebeke , Gregory Lodygensky , Jose Dolz

This study introduces a novel model that effectively captures asymmetric structures in multivariate contingency tables with ordinal categories. Leveraging the principle of maximum entropy, our approach employs f-divergence to provide a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-22 Hisaya Okahara , Kouji Tahata

Uncertainty reduction is vital for improving system reliability and reducing risks. To identify the best target for uncertainty reduction, uncertainty importance measure is commonly used to prioritize the significance of input variable…

Applications · Statistics 2025-06-12 Shi-Shun Chen , Xiao-Yang Li

Distortion Risk Measures (DRMs) capture risk preferences in decision-making and serve as general criteria for managing uncertainty. This paper proposes gradient descent algorithms for DRM optimization based on two dual representations: the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-07 Jinyang Jiang , Bernd Heidergott , Jiaqiao Hu , Yijie Peng

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is crucial for deploying machine learning models in high-stakes applications, where overconfident predictions can lead to serious consequences. An effective UQ method must balance computational efficiency…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-23 Taeseong Yoon , Heeyoung Kim

Quantifying uncertainty is important for actionable predictions in real-world applications. A crucial part of predictive uncertainty quantification is the estimation of epistemic uncertainty, which is defined as an integral of the product…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-25 Kajetan Schweighofer , Lukas Aichberger , Mykyta Ielanskyi , Günter Klambauer , Sepp Hochreiter

Regression tasks, notably in safety-critical domains, require proper uncertainty quantification, yet the literature remains largely classification-focused. In this light, we introduce a family of measures for total, aleatoric, and epistemic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-30 Christopher Bülte , Yusuf Sale , Gitta Kutyniok , Eyke Hüllermeier

Multimodal foundation models offer a promising framework for robotic perception and planning by processing sensory inputs to generate actionable plans. However, addressing uncertainty in both perception (sensory interpretation) and…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-04-18 Neel P. Bhatt , Yunhao Yang , Rohan Siva , Daniel Milan , Ufuk Topcu , Zhangyang Wang

We propose a method to assess the intrinsic risk carried by a financial position $X$ when the agent faces uncertainty about the pricing rule assigning its present value. Our approach is inspired by a new interpretation of the quasiconvex…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2017-07-17 Marco Frittelli , Marco Maggis

Fairness-aware learning is a novel framework for classification tasks. Like regular empirical risk minimization (ERM), it aims to learn a classifier with a low error rate, and at the same time, for the predictions of the classifier to be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-26 Kazuto Fukuchi , Jun Sakuma

The extreme cases of risk measures, when considered within the context of distributional ambiguity, provide significant guidance for practitioners specializing in risk management of quantitative finance and insurance. In contrast to the…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-07-01 Yuting Su , Taizhong Hu , Zhenfeng Zou

This paper presents a communication efficient distributed algorithm, $\mathcal{CIRFE}$ of the \emph{consensus}+\emph{innovations} type, to estimate a high-dimensional parameter in a multi-agent network, in which each agent is interested in…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-10-17 Anit Kumar Sahu , Dusan Jakovetic , Soummya Kar

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is crucial in machine learning, yet most (axiomatic) studies of uncertainty measures focus on classification, leaving a gap in regression settings with limited formal justification and evaluations. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-19 Christopher Bülte , Yusuf Sale , Timo Löhr , Paul Hofman , Gitta Kutyniok , Eyke Hüllermeier

Quantification of risk positions under model uncertainty is of crucial importance from both viewpoints of external regulation and internal management. The concept of model uncertainty, sometimes also referred to as model ambiguity. Although…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2019-08-06 Wentao Hu

This paper introduces the $f$-sensitivity model, a new sensitivity model that characterizes the violation of unconfoundedness in causal inference. It assumes the selection bias due to unmeasured confounding is bounded "on average"; compared…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-07 Ying Jin , Zhimei Ren , Zhengyuan Zhou

Using a model of the environment and a value function, an agent can construct many estimates of a state's value, by unrolling the model for different lengths and bootstrapping with its value function. Our key insight is that one can treat…

The modern pervasiveness of large-scale deep neural networks (NNs) is driven by their extraordinary performance on complex problems but is also plagued by their sudden, unexpected, and often catastrophic failures, particularly on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-02 Sadhana Lolla , Iaroslav Elistratov , Alejandro Perez , Elaheh Ahmadi , Daniela Rus , Alexander Amini