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Related papers: A Comprehensive Framework for Evaluating Time to E…

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We present a new estimator of the restricted mean survival time in randomized trials where there is right censoring that may depend on treatment and baseline variables. The proposed estimator leverages prognostic baseline variables to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-22 Iván Díaz , Elizabeth Colantuoni , Daniel F. Hanley , Michael Rosenblum

In this paper, we propose two variable selection methods for adjusting the censoring information for survival times, such as the restricted mean survival time. To adjust for the influence of censoring, we consider an inverse survival…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-06 Masahiro Kojima

One straightforward metric to evaluate a survival prediction model is based on the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) -- the average of the absolute difference between the time predicted by the model and the true event time, over all subjects.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-05 Shi-ang Qi , Neeraj Kumar , Mahtab Farrokh , Weijie Sun , Li-Hao Kuan , Rajesh Ranganath , Ricardo Henao , Russell Greiner

We present a new framework for the robust estimation of latent time series models which is fairly general and, for example, covers models going from ARMA to state-space models. This approach provides estimators which are (i) consistent and…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-08-23 Stephane Guerrier , Roberto Molinari

Applications of machine learning in healthcare often require working with time-to-event prediction tasks including prognostication of an adverse event, re-hospitalization or death. Such outcomes are typically subject to censoring due to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-04 Chirag Nagpal , Willa Potosnak , Artur Dubrawski

Robins 1997 introduced marginal structural models (MSMs), a general class of counterfactual models for the joint effects of time-varying treatment regimes in complex longitudinal studies subject to time-varying confounding. In his work,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-27 Haben Michael , Yifan Cui , Scott Lorch , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Marginal structural models (MSMs) with inverse probability weighting offer an approach to estimating causal effects of treatment sequences on repeated outcome measures in the presence of time-varying confounding and dependent censoring.…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-02 Sean Yiu , Li Su

Marginal structural models (MSMs) allow for causal analysis of longitudinal data. The MSMs were originally developed as discrete time models. Recently, continuous-time MSMs were presented as a conceptually appealing alternative for survival…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-14 Pål Christie Ryalen , Mats Julius Stensrud , Kjetil Røysland

While well-established methods for time-to-event data are available when the proportional hazards assumption holds, there is no consensus on the best inferential approach under non-proportional hazards (NPH). However, a wide range of…

Biomarker-guided designs are increasingly used to evaluate personalized treatments based on patients' biomarker status in Phase II and III clinical trials. With adaptive enrichment, these designs can improve the efficiency of evaluating the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-11 Kaiyuan Hua , Hwanhee Hong , Xiaofei Wang

Methods for the evaluation of the predictive accuracy of biomarkers with respect to survival outcomes subject to right censoring have been discussed extensively in the literature. In cancer and other diseases, survival outcomes are commonly…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-06 Yuan Wu , Xiaofei Wang , Jiaxing Lin , Beilin Jia , Kouros Owzar

The widely used proportional hazard assumption cannot be assessed reliably in small-scale clinical trials and might often in fact be unjustified, e.g. due to delayed treatment effects. An alternative to the hazard ratio as effect measure is…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-29 David Jesse , Cynthia Huber , Tim Friede

Time-to-event forecasts are essential when decisions depend on event timing. This article develops a framework for evaluating such forecasts when the event has not yet occurred or is not predicted within the forecast horizon. We introduce a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-17 Robert J. Taggart , Nicholas Loveday , Simon Louis

Survival time prediction from medical images is important for treatment planning, where accurate estimations can improve healthcare quality. One issue affecting the training of survival models is censored data. Most of the current survival…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-05-27 Renato Hermoza , Gabriel Maicas , Jacinto C. Nascimento , Gustavo Carneiro

We propose a restricted win probability estimand for comparing treatments in a randomized trial with a time-to-event outcome. We also propose Bayesian estimators for this summary measure as well as the unrestricted win probability. Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-06 Michelle Leeberg , Xianghua Luo , Thomas A. Murray

Reliable uncertainty quantification is essential in survival prediction, particularly in clinical settings where erroneous decisions carry high risk. Conformal prediction has attracted substantial attention as it offers a model-agnostic…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-04 Jaeyoung Shin , Chi Hyun Lee , Sangwook Kang

This paper focuses on quantifying and estimating the predictive accuracy of prognostic models for time-to-event outcomes with competing events. We consider the time-dependent discrimination and calibration metrics, including the receiver…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-14 Cai Wu , Liang Li

Scoring systems are highly interpretable and widely used to evaluate time-to-event outcomes in healthcare research. However, existing time-to-event scores are predominantly created ad-hoc using a few manually selected variables based on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-11 Feng Xie , Yilin Ning , Han Yuan , Benjamin Alan Goldstein , Marcus Eng Hock Ong , Nan Liu , Bibhas Chakraborty

Accurately predicting the time of occurrence of an event of interest is a critical problem in longitudinal data analysis. One of the main challenges in this context is the presence of instances whose event outcomes become unobservable after…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-12-26 Ping Wang , Yan Li , Chandan K. Reddy

A platform trial with a master protocol provides an infrastructure to ethically and efficiently evaluate multiple treatment options in multiple diseases. Given that certain study drugs can enter or exit a platform trial, the randomization…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-15 Tianyu Zhan , Jane Zhang , Lei Shu , Yihua Gu