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Recovering the underlying Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) structures from observational data presents a formidable challenge, partly due to the combinatorial nature of the DAG-constrained optimization problem. Recently, researchers have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-26 Zhen Zhang , Ignavier Ng , Dong Gong , Yuhang Liu , Mingming Gong , Biwei Huang , Kun Zhang , Anton van den Hengel , Javen Qinfeng Shi

In this article, we propose a new hypothesis testing method for directed acyclic graph (DAG). While there is a rich class of DAG estimation methods, there is a relative paucity of DAG inference solutions. Moreover, the existing methods…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-25 Chengchun Shi , Yunzhe Zhou , Lexin Li

Background: There is increasing interest in approaches for analyzing the effect of exposure mixtures on health. A key issue is how to simultaneously analyze often highly collinear components of the mixture, which can create problems such as…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-06 Thomas F. Webster , Marc G. Weisskopf

In this paper, we introduce a novel MCMC sampler, PARNI-DAG, for a fully-Bayesian approach to the problem of structure learning under observational data. Under the assumption of causal sufficiency, the algorithm allows for approximate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-02 Alberto Caron , Xitong Liang , Samuel Livingstone , Jim Griffin

Causal discovery aims to uncover causal structure among a set of variables. Score-based approaches mainly focus on searching for the best Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) based on a predefined score function. However, most of them are not…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-13 Wenqian Li , Yinchuan Li , Shengyu Zhu , Yunfeng Shao , Jianye Hao , Yan Pang

Recursive linear structural equation models and the associated directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) play an important role in causal discovery. The classic identifiability result for this class of models states that when only observational data…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-08-21 Jun Wu , Mathias Drton

We consider the task of learning causal structures from data stored on multiple machines, and propose a novel structure learning method called distributed annealing on regularized likelihood score (DARLS) to solve this problem. We model…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-30 Qiaoling Ye , Arash A. Amini , Qing Zhou

In many applications, data often arise from multiple groups that may share similar characteristics. A joint estimation method that models several groups simultaneously can be more efficient than estimating parameters in each group…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-17 Kyoungjae Lee , Xuan Cao

Statistical relationships in observed data can arise for several different reasons: the observed variables may be causally related, they may share a latent common cause, or there may be selection bias. Each of these scenarios can be…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-30 Ryan Carey , Marina Maciel Ansanelli , Elie Wolfe , Robin J. Evans

An algorithm for generating the structure of a directed acyclic graph from data using the notion of causal input lists is presented. The algorithm manipulates the ordering of the variables with operations which very much resemble arc…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-03-25 Remco R. Bouckaert

Hierarchical models for regionally aggregated disease incidence data commonly involve region specific latent random effects that are modeled jointly as having a multivariate Gaussian distribution. The covariance or precision matrix…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-30 Abhirup Datta , Sudipto Banerjee , James S. Hodges

This paper addresses a gap in the current state of the art by providing a solution for modeling causal relationships that evolve over time and occur at different time scales. Specifically, we introduce the multiscale non-stationary directed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-21 Gabriele D'Acunto , Gianmarco De Francisci Morales , Paolo Bajardi , Francesco Bonchi

Causal learning tackles the computationally demanding task of estimating causal graphs. This paper introduces a new divide-and-conquer approach for causal graph learning, called DCILP. In the divide phase, the Markov blanket MB($X_i$) of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-01 Shuyu Dong , Michèle Sebag , Kento Uemura , Akito Fujii , Shuang Chang , Yusuke Koyanagi , Koji Maruhashi

Telling apart the cause and effect between two random variables with purely observational data is a challenging problem that finds applications in various scientific disciplines. A key principle utilized in this task is the algorithmic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-15 Quang-Duy Tran , Bao Duong , Phuoc Nguyen , Thin Nguyen

Learning DAG structures from purely observational data remains a long-standing challenge across scientific domains. An emerging line of research leverages the score of the data distribution to initially identify a topological order of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-27 Vy Vo , He Zhao , Trung Le , Edwin V. Bonilla , Dinh Phung

If $X,Y,Z$ denote sets of random variables, two different data sources may contain samples from $P_{X,Y}$ and $P_{Y,Z}$, respectively. We argue that causal inference can help inferring properties of the 'unobserved joint distributions'…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-05-18 Dominik Janzing

We propose a fully Bayesian approach for causal inference with multivariate categorical data based on staged tree models, a class of probabilistic graphical models capable of representing asymmetric and context-specific dependencies. To…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-06 Andrea Cremaschi , Manuele Leonelli , Gherardo Varando

Without any assumptions about data generation, multiple causal models may explain our observations equally well. To avoid selecting a single arbitrary model that could result in unsafe decisions if it does not match reality, it is therefore…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-13 Tristan Deleu

The constraints arising from DAG models with latent variables can be naturally represented by means of acyclic directed mixed graphs (ADMGs). Such graphs contain directed and bidirected arrows, and contain no directed cycles. DAGs with…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-07-24 Ilya Shpitser , Thomas S. Richardson , James M. Robins , Robin Evans

Modeling returns on large portfolios is a challenging problem as the number of parameters in the covariance matrix grows as the square of the size of the portfolio. Traditional correlation models, for example, the dynamic conditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-25 Lupe Shun Hin Chan , Amanda Man Ying Chu , Mike Ka Pui So